TX - First big cool front of fall?

[Ntxw]

Felt amazing this morning in the low 60s, great for a nice run! May be warmer next week but at least rain chances go up. That may keep temps a bit lower though humid.

[Portastorm]

Meh, I predicted Sept. 10th for the first "big" Fall cold front. Based on what I'm seeing this morning, model-wise, I'm going to bust. Won't be the first time!

[Tireman4]

Meh, I predicted Sept. 10th for the first "big" Fall cold front. Based on what I'm seeing this morning, model-wise, I'm going to bust. Won't be the first time!

Porta, I am still thinking ( and I am going with Climo on this one) that September 25 will be it. I wish it were earlier. Goodness knows my running has suffered from this. LOL

[amawea]

We hit a low of 46.8 degrees Saturday morning here on the Ar/Mo. line Man it was nice. Low was 49.5 this a.m.

[Ntxw]

Pesky ridge is holding strong and staying so for the rest of the month likely. Looks like we'll need a storm (via tropics or strong fall system) to really change/break the pattern for a decent cold front. Sigh....

Edit: The more reliable euro showing a silver lining in recent runs. Note the GFS has been hinting on and off around the 28-29th of Sept as well for some fresh air in the midsection of the country.

[Ntxw]

ECMWF continues it's push for a good front behind a storm system this weekend and into early next week holding cooler temps down to the coast basically the entire week. GFS is so and so about it. 27th to 30th of Sept. still looks good to be the first decent front of fall.

12z EC



If it's correct, nice weather for the fair! 70s!

[Portastorm]

Multiple benefits I see from such a frontal passage ... the obvious dip in temps, the drop of dew points, much more enjoyable weather, and keeping any budding tropical cyclone away from Texas!

[Ntxw]

Definitely a good thing Portastorm! Especially the latter. Depending on timing of course, but looks like the trough should keep Texas safe. Wish I could say the same about our friends to the east with basically every model depicting some sort of system, but that's for the tropical section to keep tabs on.

La Nina is still building very nicely with coldest parts in the east and central regions. Holding it's grip basin wide.

[somethingfunny]

Well, if you believe tonight's 00Z GFS, the 10°C isotherm will be pushing through DFW on October 3rd.



I checked - for that date, the average low is 63, the record low is 45. And the GFS is expecting highs in the mid 50s.

[Ntxw]

^50s may be overdoing it, but both GFS and ECMWF are advertising quite cool temps next week behind the cutoff ULL. NWS is going conservative so far but I do believe 70s/upper 60s for highs and lows in the 50s is not out of the week throughout.

[Portastorm]

I can believe a cold front because climatologically it is about that time ... but this business of a cutoff low really has me skeptical. Seriously, when's the last time we have seen a cutoff low this time of year? That is almost always during winter time. Otherwise, we may see ULLs during the tropical season which are essentially TUTT lows that go on land. The GFS is progging something different. I'm not buying!

By the way ... Tireman's prediction of Sept. 25th is looking pretty darn good right now!

[srainhoutx]

I'll be watching WV Imagery to see just how things unfold...

[Ntxw]

I can believe a cold front because climatologically it is about that time ... but this business of a cutoff low really has me skeptical. Seriously, when's the last time we have seen a cutoff low this time of year? That is almost always during winter time. Otherwise, we may see ULLs during the tropical season which are essentially TUTT lows that go on land. The GFS is progging something different. I'm not buying!

By the way ... Tireman's prediction of Sept. 25th is looking pretty darn good right now!

I wouldn't believe it either but all of the models seem to depict this feature with the EC sniffing it out first quite a few days ago. It's this cutoff low that will provide steering for anything brewing in the gulf (credit to srainhoutx for depicting Georgette as the predecessor to the ULL along with energy from the north). Also not out in lala land but rather within a week's time . Latest 12z GFS likes this idea.

If there is a cold front that's the criteria pretty much needed, either a powerful mid latitude storm (cutoff low) or something from the tropics to break the ridge. If there isn't, then there won't likely be much a cold front.

[Tireman4]

I can not wait. I have suffered so much this summer. My running has been in the sewer due to the hot weather. Just watch. As soon as it grows cold, my times will drop like a rock.

[Ntxw]

Music to my ears from FW this one's going down to the coast folks. Here's to hoping it will linger into Texas/OU weekend as I'll be out there!

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT
DISPARITY IN PLACEMENT...THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A SECOND (AND MORE SIGNIFICANT) FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
NOTICEABLY DRIER AND MILDER AIR WILL FOLLOW...TEMPS BELOW CLIMO AT
LONG LAST. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

Friends from AFD in central Texas

THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT BRIEFLY AT THE RED RIVER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
AT THIS POINT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM MINNESOTA
AND HELP PUSH THE WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL HELP MIN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S TO UPPER 50S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

Houston says it best!

THE FORECAST WILL CARRY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALL RAINS WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL
OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS SEPTEMBER COMES TO AN END AND OCTOBER BEGINS.
GOODBYE SUMMER!

Kudos to Tireman who came closest I think. Someone else said early Oct which falls into the time period as well.

[Tireman4]

Music to my ears from FW. Here's to hoping it will linger into Texas/OU weekend as I'll be out there!

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT
DISPARITY IN PLACEMENT...THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A SECOND (AND MORE SIGNIFICANT) FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
NOTICEABLY DRIER AND MILDER AIR WILL FOLLOW...TEMPS BELOW CLIMO AT
LONG LAST. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

WOO HOO...Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Aquawind]

Congratulations Texans! I can't wait..more suffering in Florida yet...

[vbhoutex]

We could be looking at lows of 60f and highs as low as 82f by tuesday. That will be a lot nicer than the 95f at the house today before the storms came through. Still 75f at the house even though the initial front has come through. If that cut-off low doesn't materialize and pull down some more cooler dryer air those temps are going to bust.

[Ntxw]

We could be looking at lows of 60f and highs as low as 82f by tuesday. That will be a lot nicer than the 95f at the house today before the storms came through. Still 75f at the house even though the initial front has come through. If that cut-off low doesn't materialize and pull down some more cooler dryer air those temps are going to bust.

It won't bust that first front isn't the actually the true shift it's more of a rain cooled boundary, the secondary front blasted through north Texas about an hour ago and the winds are gusting out of the north 20-30mph. Should make it through the rest of Texas today. Feels amazing to be outside!

Currently making it's way through Waco

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html

Unless the cloud cover clears, with the caa, I would doubt temps warm up much today.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the heads up, Ntxw. I am eagerly awaiting the "real front" here in AUS. By the way, nice avatar!