Texas Winter 2010-2011

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natlib
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Texas Winter 2010-2011

#1 Postby natlib » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:12 am

What does La Nina have in store for Texas this winter?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:34 pm

natlib wrote:What does La Nina have in store for Texas this winter?


What you've seen this summer is a good indication of what it might be. Pesky ridges in the southeastern states keeping things high and dry.

This is what the climate prediction center thinks for the next three months.

Image

Image

Fyi: Just a bit over 2 days more until fall! Calendar wise...
Last edited by Ntxw on Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby gboudx » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:21 pm

The Farmer's Almanac forecast for winter 2011 flies in the face of the CPC. Let's see who's closest to correct. :D

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2 ... t-is-over/
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4 Postby natlib » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:01 pm

I was surprised the Almanac was so cold and so different than what the CPC was predicting. It will be interesting to see who's right.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Sep 21, 2010 1:48 pm

natlib wrote:I was surprised the Almanac was so cold and so different than what the CPC was predicting. It will be interesting to see who's right.


I will have my office North Texas Halloween analog forecast out shortly after the 1st of November. As many of you know that my winter forecast is based on what Halloween brings NTX. It has proven to be correct for 9 straight yrs now and I'm pretty sure it will prove correct again.

Stay Tuned :ggreen:


I don't forecast for the entire state, nor do i forecast for the nation as a whole
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Sep 21, 2010 1:55 pm

Here is hoping for a COLD Halloween ( I have a running road race that day...!) !
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7 Postby mpic » Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:09 am

I'm ready for a "normal" 70 degrees on Christmas this year after last year's horribly cold winter!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#8 Postby Portastorm » Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:00 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:
natlib wrote:I was surprised the Almanac was so cold and so different than what the CPC was predicting. It will be interesting to see who's right.


I will have my office North Texas Halloween analog forecast out shortly after the 1st of November. As many of you know that my winter forecast is based on what Halloween brings NTX. It has proven to be correct for 9 straight yrs now and I'm pretty sure it will prove correct again.

Stay Tuned :ggreen:


I don't forecast for the entire state, nor do i forecast for the nation as a whole


I have to admit ... the Captin's Halloween analog has proven to be nearly "spot on" over the years. But will it be our trick or our treat?! :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#9 Postby Sambucol » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:06 pm

I'm hoping for cold and some winter weather surprises, too!
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#10 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:10 pm

2000 was the last good La Nina I can remember, though 07 was one also. Man December that year was chilly brrr. It can happen!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#11 Postby natlib » Mon Sep 27, 2010 3:23 pm

It was 49 degrees in San Angelo this morning. Nice and cool.....
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#12 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:43 pm

For interests, I've noticed the GFS developing upper lows consistently as we move into October in the Gulf of Alaska camping it there. Though at the same time holds ridging out west and troughs in the east, hmm. Perhaps it's a sign for winter forecasters.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#13 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:00 pm

I'm hoping the 12Z EC was correct. That would mean a nice backdooor front and Canadian high pressure filtering into the Lone Star State. Here's hoping!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#14 Postby natlib » Tue Oct 05, 2010 9:46 am

Anyone see the report today predicting the coldest winter in Europe in 1000 years due to the weak jet stream? Does anyone know what the impact would be for us if this is true?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#15 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 05, 2010 9:52 am

natlib wrote:Anyone see the report today predicting the coldest winter in Europe in 1000 years due to the weak jet stream? Does anyone know what the impact would be for us if this is true?


The article was concerning the Gulf Stream shrinking to 50%. I would take it with a grain of salt IMO. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#16 Postby gboudx » Tue Oct 05, 2010 10:34 am

srainhoutx wrote:
natlib wrote:Anyone see the report today predicting the coldest winter in Europe in 1000 years due to the weak jet stream? Does anyone know what the impact would be for us if this is true?


The article was concerning the Gulf Stream shrinking to 50%. I would take it with a grain of salt IMO. :wink:


Yes, 50% is very significant if true. You'd think it would garner more press than from rt.com.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#17 Postby natlib » Tue Oct 05, 2010 11:24 am

I'm sorry. I meant to say gulf stream. There has certainly been some extreme winter weather in the Southern hemisphere this year. Will be interesting to watch and see what happens in our part of the world.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#18 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 05, 2010 12:14 pm

natlib wrote:I'm sorry. I meant to say gulf stream. There has certainly been some extreme winter weather in the Southern hemisphere this year. Will be interesting to watch and see what happens in our part of the world.


It's really hard to tell, we're in a -pdo period and not much data is in the books for such times. Most of what we have are during the +pdo's. Just say it's a gut feeling, but this could play more of a role than many would think as they come in packs starting with the last being quite chilly.

Image

Notice any correlation? 50s, 60s, 70s, and early 2000s were chilly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#19 Postby southerngale » Fri Oct 08, 2010 8:32 am

mpic wrote:I'm ready for a "normal" 70 degrees on Christmas this year after last year's horribly cold winter!


Ewww. That would be so depressing. I hate shorts weather on Christmas... it just ain't right! Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#20 Postby gboudx » Fri Oct 08, 2010 2:06 pm

southerngale wrote:
mpic wrote:I'm ready for a "normal" 70 degrees on Christmas this year after last year's horribly cold winter!


Ewww. That would be so depressing. I hate shorts weather on Christmas... it just ain't right! Image


It's also not ideal gumbo weather.
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