Official 2010/11 Denver - I hate La Nina Thread

[PTPatrick]

looks like the lift has moved southeast of the metro area. Downsloaping killed our snow chances. Super bummed here. today NAM started really showing some good prospects, and then NOTHING. NWS had a 70% chance of snow with 1-3 inches...BS. There wasnt even so much as a flurry downtown, despite the fact that there was some showers on the radar over us. I am officially over this winter. 18z GFS shows nothing for the next 14 days. There is a storm around 8 days, but looks dry for the front range. Of course much can change between now and then.


EDIT...OK, I posted that a few hours ago when the first batch moved through. i didnt expect anything would kick back up, but a convective band seems to have set up from around arvada southeast rhough denver and into aurora. Lucky for me its right over down town, and I now have about a half inch of accum. Still snowing pretty good. Its the best I have had all season

As for 0z models...tonights GFS looks better for precip again next weekend into earlier next week, but this continues to flip flop. 12z Euro today closed off a big system int he SW and cuts it off Monday into Tuesday. Thats quite a difference, but tonightsGFS is still faster with the eventual feature. bears watching...but im not getting my hopes up...

[PTPatrick]

Well...November went down pretty crappy in the weather book as far as I am concerned. 1.5 inches for the month is dismal. This winter is really living up to the La Nina standard. Shaping up to be much like the 2008-2009 winter. That winter October was dry, and november featured little snow as well. By and large the entire winter went down pretty dry with official totals coming in at 38 inches of snow for Denver for that season. The bulk of which fell in December and march. I thought I would write up some comparisons to what we are seeing and saw in that winter.

Looking back at the season some things I noted:
1) Every month from October to March was "above average" in the temp department except for December 08
2) December had some extremely warm days though , also featuring a high of 69 on the 2nd.
3) there were 2 big cold snaps in December...one of which gave me the coldest temps I have seen yet in Denver, with a low of -19 below and a high of 2. Some snow fell with that but not much...however it stayed for a few days with temps so cold. The month ended dry with no snow cover and a high of 58 on christmas.
4) every month was below average on precip, even March, it just happened that snow was above average, because there was a high snow ratio with the big storm that came.
5) January, our coldest month was 10 degrees warmer for its average temp compared to December, which is supposed to be warmer. It featured 2 days in the 70s. and many days in the 60s. February did as well.

SO...what does this tell us? if this winter turns out anything like 2008-2009 la nina, Denver will indeed continue to be drier than normal through spring, with an occasional cold snap. Those COULD prove to be VERY cold but replaced with above average temps quickly. Snows will be infrequent, light and with high snow to liquid ratios, as they will likely be accompanied by arctic air, vs a more el nino pattern of heavier wetter high moisture snows. earlier in the season i posted that we would be dry through the end of the year but that it could recover in the spring and late winter. At this point, I am doubting that will be the case. We moistened up later that spring as El nino kicked it. I hope I am wrong and the La nina pattern buckles before we get too late into winter, but the projections at this point have it holding on. So I am going to just TRY to enjoy nice winter weather and not grumble TOO much about no snow. It gets old looking at GFS model after GFS model and seeing nothing on the horizon as far as snow goes but alas, i will keep watching and you know where I will be when anything comes up!

[Dencolo]

I can almost guarantee you we've set a record for least amount of snow to date. I think we've got about 1.5" officially or so. Will someone start an official "I hate La Nina" thread so everyone can vent?

Looking at the long term GFS makes me want to cry. For the first time in many years, a white Christmas is in jeopardy.

[frigidice77]

Isnt la nina supposed to make things colder? Isnt it the cooling of the pacific? There is so many things I find confusing.

[PTPatrick]

Agreed Dencolo...i was looking the otehr day and think the last time we had this little snow at this point was like 1880's. It sucks!

[zephyr99]

I'm up here at 8800 feet in the foothills enjoying 40 and 50 degree days for the most part with the occasional day or 2 cold snap. We've had a couple of "dustings" this fall, and a solid 4" last Monday i think it was. But that is it and it looks to be dry and in the 40s for the next 10 days. I think with the strong La Nina this will be a record setting warm and dry winter here in the front range. Makes for easy driving through Turkey Creek Canyon. Hopefully next winter will be a better one.

[PTPatrick]

FYI...places from central TN to northern alabama and georgia now have more snow for the year than Denver. It was colder in Fort Luaderdale this morning than in Denver and will be for the next 2 days.

Some small hope for snow on Wednesday to Thursday this week...small...NAM doesnt even show any precip, and GFS not looking too promising. Long range had looked hopeful for snow this weekend but that has vanished. Now its showing nothing through the end of the year. Water those trees folks! HO HO HO.

[PTPatrick]

First winter weather advisory for the season is out. Finally supposed to get something. Lets hope it actually pans out. NAM looks pretty wet. Could see 3-6 inches inside 470 if it is right. i am guessing generally more like 3 inside c470 though...maybe 6 in Castle rock/Elizabeth. Any snow is good though at this point.

[Dencolo]

First WWA of the season. Quite a ways in and it's finally here. Living on the southwest side, I'm hoping for close to 7". We'll see.

BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARVADA...BOULDER...GOLDEN...LAKEWOOD...
LONGMONT...AURORA...BRIGHTON...CITY OF DENVER...
DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HIGHLANDS RANCH...LITTLETON...
PARKER
316 PM MST TUE DEC 14 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
MST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
WEDNESDAY TO NOON MST THURSDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATION/WIND...SNOW TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE METRO AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT

[PTPatrick]

The models giveth, and the models taketh away. They have definately changed a lot since yesterday afternoon. Now there really doesnt appear to be any real good lift ever through this event. They do drag it out almost through Friday afternoon now, but I guessing nothing happens ti llate tonight, we wake up to a dusting followed by 2 days of flurries...maybe adding up to 3 inches total. Wierd swings in the models. Still some time for things to change though.

[PTPatrick]

"Storm" is looking like a total bust...maybe an inch coming... I think I am moving to minnesota.

[Dencolo]

Man, I've seen some busts before, but going from 3 to 7 inches tonight down to a 20% of snow is pretty bad. Granted some of it is just delayed until tomorrow, but now they are only predicting 1 to 2 inches. Based on the models, we'll be lucky to see that.

Update: Snow forecast now down to "up to 1 inch" tomorrow. Pathetic, now the news says we may not even see a dusting. Wouldn't doubt it.

[zephyr99]

Just came in from the hot tub. Um, lots of stars and a bright moon. I was hoping for a little snow right before the Holidays. I'm suspecting the next update to the winter weather advisory will include the word cancelled. It just doesn't want to snow this winter here in Denver. The front range does mild and dry really well! That's where most of the time it likes to be.

[PTPatrick]

Thought i would revive this in preparation for this week's chance of snow. I am trying not to be optimistic. Who'd of thunk we would be looking at new years for our first real snow. Models still kind of everywhere with this. NAM was wet, then drier, now a little wetter again. GFS is under 6 inches but a nice storm. I don't get Euro or CMC stuff, but the discussion says they are further north, and drier than GFS. So still lots of possibilities. I am keeping my fingers crossed. Either way its gonna be cold! below zero Thursday night for the first time this season.

[PTPatrick]

Took a a quick look at 0z models for this coming system. NAM is still drier for the metro area. It did have a run that showed up to about a foot for the south end and 5-10 in the city earlier today. but it has backed off to around 2-4 for most of the area, with a llittle higher from boulder into the foothills. It doesnt give much for the Palmer divide at all...which I guess means there is more of a SE component to the upsloap on that model.

0z GFS, showing more consistency than the NAM is showing 6-12...12 most likely on th palmer divide. It hasnt wavered much today, other than coming in wetter today. overall track of the low looks similar though.

Ultimately, I am inclined to believe the GFS more at this point, although I cant discount NAM. that is still quite a bit of spread for something so close(we are inside 60 hours for the bulk of the storm). HPC is not loving 0z for this storm though, and the EURO has trended toward GFS the past day or so...so I think best guess is closer to the GFS. Lets see what 06z says. Hopefully nam will come around.

EDIT: Got a chance to check the 0z Canadian model. Its somewhere betwen NAM and GFS. Low goes across SE colorado vs GFS track more toward the NM/CO border. Nam is just a tad north of Canadian. Its gonna be close! It has about 4 inches or so of snow for most of the front range metro.

[Dencolo]

Hey, at least we'll have a white New Year's!

...SEASONS FIRST WINTER STORM TAKING AIM AT NORTHEAST COLORADO...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SNOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DROPPING INTO UTAH AND PUSH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COLORADO NEW MEXICO BORDER...INCREASING THE THREAT OF
HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.

COZ035-036-039>041-301100-
/O.UPG.KBOU.WS.A.0008.101230T1300Z-101231T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KBOU.WS.W.0015.101230T1600Z-101231T1300Z/
LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTES PARK...GLENDEVEY...NEDERLAND...
RED FEATHER LAKES...BAILEY...CENTRAL CITY...EVERGREEN...
GEORGETOWN...IDAHO SPRINGS...WESTCREEK...ARVADA...BOULDER...
GOLDEN...LAKEWOOD...LONGMONT...AURORA...BRIGHTON...
CITY OF DENVER...DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HIGHLANDS RANCH...
LITTLETON...PARKER...CASTLE ROCK...ELBERT...FONDIS...KIOWA...
LARKSPUR
327 PM MST WED DEC 29 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM MST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
MST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATION/WIND...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW. WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL TO OCCUR EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

* MAIN IMPACT...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOWPACKED AND ICY...AND
TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN VERY COLD WITH READINGS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

[PTPatrick]

0z NAM is in an all the sudden shows a bullseye on the palmer divide to the tune of about 12-18 inches. Stark turn around from previous runs. With it on board I can be more comfortable with the idea that this storm will actually come through. It drops off quickly though NE of the city though with only about 3 inches North and East of Brighton. Also of note is it now cranks out 5-10 over areas south of the palmer divide that are not under a warning right now. This on is probably a nail biter for the Pueblo office. With these high snow ratios even the .5-.75 NAM puts out for the area could equate to 10-15 inches in the south and west sides of town Downtown Denver. Hopefully Downtown will end up with 10. Cheyenne was saying they expected 30:1 ratios...that would be serious powder. Will update what I see on the latest GFS in a couple hours.


EDIT...Maddening...now the GFS is drier over the front range. Rediculous. I thought there would finally be some consistency. Still have 6 inches on the southeast side of town, but NW side of the city would get very little, as would right up against the foothills. Seems off a bit since the low position and strength hasnt changed much. I think this is probabaly getting close to "nowcasting" time as the models still are all over the place.

[zephyr99]

Sunny with only a few clouds in the sky to the NE. 26 and pretty chilly. Keep us updated. It's like watching some thriller movie and wondering what will happen next. Keeping my fingers crossed for the big change that will finally bring some winter. Oh..BTW here in Conifer.

[PTPatrick]

Models still showing about .5-.7 inches QPF for most of the metro area. THis is an extremely cold storm, only 8 right now in cheyenne and already 25 in Denver. Snow has started in earnest and its very dry. Should se no trouble getting 20:1 rations...maybe higher. TO put it perspective, during the 2006 Christmas blizzard DIA recorded .7 inches of moisture and 20 inches of snow. I dont think we will see that this time, but a half inch of moisture with 8-10 inches metro, 12 foothills sounds right.

[Dencolo]

Moderate snow now on the SW side of town near Littleton. Radar returns getting heavier. About 2-3" on the ground now and maybe coming down slightly above 0.5" / hr. Interesting how the snow stuck to the pavement and concrete areas almost immediately, while it took a while to stick to the grassy surfaces.