Can NYC see no snow in the Winter of 10/11?

[hurricaneCW]

Is there a possibility that the NYC area does not receive any accumulating snowfall this winter. What I mean by that is can NYC record less than 1 inch of snow for the entire winter season. I'm not saying about seeing snow fall maybe in the form of flurries or snow showers, I'm talking accumulations.

Has there ever been a winter where NYC has had no accumulation for the winter? I personally don't see that happening this season but with the la nina expected to be very strong, possibly record breaking, I don't think it's impossible for something like that to occur. We could easily see lake cutter after lake cutter from December to March where it warms up and the area just gets rain, then cools for a day or so but stays dry and then the pattern repeats.

I know they've had a few winters with the nonstop lake cutter pattern that gave the city very little snow for the season. 2001-2002, they only had a few inches, less than 5. I think 1971 or 1972 was very bad with only like 2 inches or so. If the La Nina reaches record intensity and the NAO goes positive, then I think there is a greater than normal chance of this happening this winter.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I highly doubt that NYC will see no snow this winter. 1972-1973 was the least snowiest season on record for NYC (Central Park), with only 2.8 inches accumulating. The chances of this year topping that record and not even seeing an inch are pretty remote IMO. Of course it's not impossible, but when you consider that all it would take is for one weak system to move through at a cold enough time between November and March to get your 1"+ total, I consider it to be very unlikely.

Central Park historic snowfall data:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/rec ... onths.html

[Steve H.]

I'm seriously thinking that this winter will be harsh from the mid west to the mid-atlantic northward. I believe that the 50/50 low will set up early this year, and the deep trough will set up in the eastern CONUS. Some plunges of cold air will bleed into the deep south this winter. All in all, it's going to be one of the colder winters we've seen in a while, with potential for lots of overrunning moisture. I am thinking the analogs years for our winter will be along the lines of 1977/1978.

[nickysixes]

U are on drugs if u think this season analogs to '77-'78

I'm seriously thinking that this winter will be harsh from the mid west to the mid-atlantic northward. I believe that the 50/50 low will set up early this year, and the deep trough will set up in the eastern CONUS. Some plunges of cold air will bleed into the deep south this winter. All in all, it's going to be one of the colder winters we've seen in a while, with potential for lots of overrunning moisture. I am thinking the analogs years for our winter will be along the lines of 1977/1978.

[brunota2003]

This winter has been very unusual so far up here in upstate NY (east of Lake Ontario). It ALWAYS snows at least once or twice prior to Halloween according to the locals (meaning accumulating snows, not just a snowflake)...and yet here we are, just a few days from Thanksgiving, and it has not snowed once. They are staying to expect the first real lake effect snow of the season this Thurs night/Fri, so it appears we will make it to just past Thanksgiving before we receive any accumulating snow.

It did, however, snow on Halloween (snow showers), enough to drop visibilities, but not enough to stick at all. The locals don't really know what to think of this winter thus far...the temperatures in the 50s/60s are well above average, and we are supposed to be in the low to mid 50s for tomorrow and tuesday, before dropping into the 30s (average is in the lower 40s).