North Country Winter 2010

Winter Weather Discussion

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brunota2003
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Re: North Country Winter 2010

#41 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Mar 05, 2011 12:52 pm

Oy! We are getting 1 to 2 inches of rain this weekend, and then a bunch of heavy wet snow right after (with the same system!). The NWS just yesterday (Friday) was forecasting a changeover to snow tomorrow (Sunday), with one to two inches possible...now the models have slowed the system way down, and they were forecasting 3 to 6 inches tomorrow (this morning's package)...just looked again, and we are now under a winter storm watch from 8 am Sunday to 4 am Monday for 6 to 10 inches of snow, but the AFD is hinting at 12"+ possible.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1235 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A
WAVY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING CONCERNS
LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY...AT WHICH TIME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME HEAVY WET SNOW. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL BE FOUND REGIONWIDE...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WILL BE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1140 AM UPDATE...WILL BE ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE
AREA FOR SUN/SUN NT. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL IN TWO CAMPS...
GFS/CMC/SREFS ALL TAKE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY...NAM STILL A BIT FURTHER WEST. POTENTIAL FOR A
FOOT OR MORE GEN VLY AND EAST...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WILL ISSUE WATCH FOR
ALL AREAS. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FROM GENESEE RIVER EAST...SOMEWHAT
LESS TO WEST. WILL SPLIT WATCH INTO TWO SEGMENTS FOR TIMING...4
AM TO 10 PM WEST...AND 8 AM TO 4 AM MON EAST. WILL UPDATE ALL
GRIDS AND FORECASTS BY 1 PM.

FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES TOO...ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO
MOVING OVER AREA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND THEN A BIT OF A BREAK AS
PLUME PULLS A LITTLE EAST. HUGE COMPLEX IN LA/MISS MAY BE ROBBING
MOISTURE FURTHER NE. OVERALL QPF MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.


1156 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...GENESEE VALLEY... FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

* TIMING...SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

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#42 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Mar 05, 2011 1:09 pm

Just ran my "model"...it has the rain switching over to snow between 5 am and 6:30 am...and it has us getting 5 to 8 inches of snow tomorrow, and another 5 to 8 inches tomorrow night (for a total of 10 to 16 inches). It has the snow completely ending by 7 am Monday morning. The GFS (doing a comparison) has the temps dropping a good 3 or 4 hours prior to my model...wonder what would happen then.

Sunday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the morning. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain likely in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 32, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind north-northwest around 10 mph in the morning, becoming 14 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 5 to 8 inches.

Sunday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Low 11. Wind north-northwest around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches.

Monday: Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming sunny in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow. High 24. Wind north-northwest around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
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Re: North Country Winter 2010

#43 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Mar 05, 2011 5:31 pm

Well, here is the latest forecast (my model first, then the NWS)

Sunday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the morning. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 29, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind north-northwest around 9 mph in the morning, becoming 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 4 to 6 inches.

Sunday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Low 12. Wind north around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches.

Monday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. A chance of snow in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 19, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind north around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch.

Now the NWS' forecast for the same time frame:

Sunday: Snow. Temperature falling to around 26 by 1pm. North wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -5. North wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Monday: A chance of snow, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as -5. North wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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Re: North Country Winter 2010

#44 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Mar 06, 2011 3:55 pm

Well, snow has again come and gone...this time though, everyone busted majorly. I just measured 2.5 inches of snow (at 330 pm), and it has stopped snowing. The NWS has dropped the WSW, and yeah...the models were pretty far off.

AFD issued at 340 pm:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
315 PM UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD HAS REACHED THE ROCHESTER
AREA AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT OLEAN AT MID AFTERNOON. SNOW
WAS FALLING EAST OF THIS LINE BUT GENERALLY LIGHT. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ONE LAST SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER VIRGINIA. MODELS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN TAKING THIS SURGE UP ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
EAST CENTRAL NY...PRETTY MUCH OF A BGM TO UCA LINE. WORST OF THIS
SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...BUT THIS COULD EASILY CLIP LEWIS AND
OSWEGO COS AS WELL AS SE EDGES OF ONTARIO AND WAYNE COS LATER THIS
EVENING...SO...CONSIDERING THEY HAVE HAD A SOLID 3-4 INCHES TODAY...
WILL LEAVE WARNING UP FOR SEVERAL MORE INCHES TONIGHT. THIS SURGE OF
HEAVIER SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH JEFF COUNTY TO ANY DEGREE AND
WITH ONLY 2-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE TODAY...JUST CANNOT JUSTIFY KEEPING
A WARNING UP THERE FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...SO REMOVED JEFF
CTY FROM WARNING. ONE OTHER NOTE...CANT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMS FOR SE
ALLEG COUNTY TOO...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE INCHES SO WILL NOT
HOIST FLAGS THERE.

TODAY`S SNOWFALL AVERAGED 3 INCHES OR SO AROUND BUF AND 4 TO 5
INCHES IN ROCHESTER AREA.

FURTHER WEST...NO PROBLEMS...SNOW IS OVER...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING TREND REACHING GEN
VALLEY LATE.

MONDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT CHILLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH.
850 MB TEMPS WILL HOLD AROUND -8C...BUT MODELS INDICATING AN
INVERSION SO WENT WITH MET/MAV TEMPS OF 25-30. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AREAWIDE ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A SLOW START EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
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#45 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Mar 06, 2011 4:13 pm

Yay...my report made it in :lol:

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
407 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS FOR
THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.  APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR
THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT


NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
   PERRYSBURG             4.0   200 PM   3/6 SPOTTER

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
   FORT DRUM              2.5   300 PM   3/6

...MONROE COUNTY...
   ROCHESTER              5.0   100 PM   3/6 AIRPORT NWS

...ERIE COUNTY...
   ALDEN (MILLGROVE)      3.5   100 PM   3/6 NWS EMPLOYEE
   BUFFALO                3.5   100 PM   3/6 AIRPORT  NWS

...WYOMING COUNTY...
   WARSAW                 4.0   400 PM   3/6 SPOTTER

$$

SFM

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