North Country Winter 2010

[brunota2003]

Well, it looks like the North Country (save the higher elevations) will get their first accumulating snows of the season this Black Friday. Many of the locals have been saying this is the first winter they've seen without at least one accumulating snow prior to Halloween in many, many years.

This is my first winter anywhere north of Virginia, so it will be interesting. Growing up in coastal NC, the temps should be in the 60s/70s right now, so this 30s/40s for highs are very...off. It shouldn't be 38 for a high on Thanksgiving (going to be 75 Tuesday and 68 on Thursday back home)! I missed last winter thanks to a deployment to Iraq, which knocks down my winters from 3 to 2 up here, thankfully! This thread will be used to post photos and forecasts for this winter as the Lake Effect Snow Machine finally gets cranking this Thanksgiving/Black Friday.

Anyone in the North Country is more than welcome to post photos and recaps!

[brunota2003]

I guess on the plus side, I get to add to my totals for White Christmas', which currently stands at 1 from when I lived in central Va.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
446 PM EST SUN NOV 21 2010

NYZ006>008-222200-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
446 PM EST SUN NOV 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON MAY BE ON THE
WAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR AND POSSIBLY SET THE STAGE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. IT REMAINS FAR
TOO EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS ON EXACT LOCATION OR ACCUMULATIONS.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS THERE MAY ALSO BE A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE OR ANOTHER SOURCE OF LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER
UPDATES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 PM EST SUN NOV 21 2010

...(snippet)...

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH JAMES BAY
BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WITH THE
BEST LIFT FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS
TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. A MOISTURE RICH
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE A LINE OF STEADIER SHOWERS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE NAM AND ECWMF. THEREFORE...WILL FOLLOW THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE TEMPERATURE TREND INDICATED BY NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE A WELL ALIGNED
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE PCPN.
THE LATEST NAM12 PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE MOISTURE PROFILES EAST OF
LAKE ERIE LOOK TOO DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE
THE RULE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
WEAK LAKE EFFECT WHILE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW
40S IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN
INTENSIFYING LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING WARM WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE FAVORABLE LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PCPN
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES
MAY SUPPORT A MIX OF PCPN FOR AWHILE...BEFORE THE DEPTH OF THE WARM
LAYER INCREASES ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS DURING THE SECOND PART
OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD AS A DEEP LOW SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DRAWS MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTH FROM CANADA. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL SOME WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TRAILING OCCLUDED
FRONT. BOTH MODELS IMPLY THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTH
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TO CHANGE ANY MIXED PCPN OVER TO JUST RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE FRIDAY
MORNING.

AS COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO ABOUT -9C/-10C BY 00Z
SAT) AND MOISTURE DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE STEERING WINDS MAY DIRECT ANY POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW BANDS INTO
METRO BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN...WHILE THE ECWMF WOULD FAVOR AN
ORIENTATION A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN FORECAST DETAILS.

COLD...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

[PTPatrick]

I was in a course recently with a guy stationed at fort drum, said it was the most miserable place he had ever lived in winter, and he was from Minnesota...Hope you have good snow tires, and maybe AWD! Driving in snow a couple times a winter vs day in day out is probably a huge difference. I would think the above 2 items would come in very handy up that way. I live in Denver and have never used snows nor do I have AWD...I have always gotten where I needed to go but I live in the downtown city area so I am close to work, its flat, and its usually plowed quickly. Enjoy your snow!

[brunota2003]

I've heard by many that this place truly sucks during the winter (especially when it comes to the field)! Our BC today, during our long weekend safety brief, joked that he is wondering where this "horrible" North Country winter is that he kept hearing about (he, like myself, has yet to experience a winter here). I yelled out to knock on wood with that comment!

Here is the latest dealing with this first of the season lake effect snow (as of the morning package, still waiting for the afternoon package)

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED DURING THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE BOTH A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN...THEN OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THE SAME FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNUSUALLY WINTRY CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HEAVY SNOWS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME DETAILS...

A DEEP H5 LOW (-2 STD) WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WHILE A RIDGE WILL SHARPEN JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES EVENTUALLY CLIMBING TO
ABOUT 2 STD ABV NORMAL LATE NOVEMBER VALUES. THE JUICY AIRMASS WILL
BE LIFTED BY A COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC
(WARM ADVECTION) LIFT...WITH LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
PCPN SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL JUST BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +2 AT KART TO +8C AT KJHW)...LEFTOVER COLD
AIR IN THE SOME OF THE SRN TIER VALLEYS COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF MIXED
SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. QPF VALUES
FOR THE RAIN ON THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AN OCCLUSION WILL THEN WORK ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS THE DEEP H5 LOW MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE SFC OCCLUSION
WITH THE SFC WAVE FORECAST TO LIFT DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES.
LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 150KT H25 JET THAT WILL
BE SCREAMING BY JUST TO OUR WEST. AS A RESULT...WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAIN EXPECTED.

COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...WITH SOME OF THE PCPN CHANGING TO WET SNOW. THIS SHOULD
ONLY BE A FACTOR THOUGH FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ON BLACK FRIDAY...THE OCCLUSION WILL RACE AWAY TO OUR EAST WHILE H85
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET FROM AN AVERAGE OF ZERO C AT DAYBREAK TO -10C BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE PLUME...BUT WITH LAKE DELTA T`S EXCEEDING 20C BY LATE
AFTERNOON...EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SET UP OVER THE LAKES. LICAPES
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 750 J/KG OR MORE WITH A CAP UP OVER 12K FT.
SFC BASED RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION WILL HELP TO `HOLD
ABCK` THE LAKE EFFECT FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT AS THAT RIDGING MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD SET UP IN EARNEST
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

FOR LK ERIE...A 250-260 FLOW WILL FAVOR A PLUME THAT WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM THE LAKE SHORE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY TO WYOMING COUNTY. GUIDANCE PACKAGES THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AXIS OF THE BAND JUST SOUTH
OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...WITH SITES FROM THE SOUTHTOWNS TO THE
BOSTON HILLS BEING IN THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

FOR LK ONTARIO...A SIMILAR FLOW WILL TAKE AIM ON JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES...BASICALLY BETWEEN THE TUG AND WATERTOWN/CARTHAGE.

DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PLUMES SHOULD INTENSIFY DUE
TO INCREASED SHORELINE CONVERGENCE. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
POSITIONS...WITH SRN ERIE COUNTY/NRN CHAUT AND CATT COUNTIES BEING
THE FOCUS FOR LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TUG HILL WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GIVE SNOW ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES AND EVEN EARLY FOR ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS
PROBABLY SAFE TO SAY THAT PLOWABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY.

GIVEN THE RELATIVE `WARMTH` OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER...THE HEIGHT
OF THE CAP...AND CLIMATOLOGY...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE PLUMES
WILL GENERATE SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. ANY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GRAUPEL AND/OR SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES/HR.

AS THE DEEP PARENT H5 LOW CROSSES QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME W/NW WITH THE SNOWBANDS FORECAST TO DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SNOWBELTS EAST OF BOTH LAKES SATURDAY.

ALONG WITH THE LAKE SNOW...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADD TO ANY
PROBLEMS AS BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME A PROBLEM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE STATEMENTS OR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCHES FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT. INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE
FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BUF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES SATURDAY. LAKES SNOWS WILL TAPER OFF AND END
ON SUNDAY...FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE...THEN OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH MANY
PLACES RETURNING TO AROUND 50 BY TUESDAY.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
443 AM EST WED NOV 24 2010

NYZ006>008-250945-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
443 AM EST WED NOV 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
TUG HILL AND OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO SNOW...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE OR ANOTHER SOURCE OF LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER
UPDATES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[brunota2003]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Likewise, while waiting, I will put out my own guesstimates as to what the snow totals will be (for the Watertown/Ft. Drum area only!). The possible snowfall duration depends on what model you use, and right now the only ones on BUFKIT I can see that far out on are the NAM, NAMm and GFS (RUC only goes through Thursday morning). Another source I can use is my wxsim, which is set up to create a forecast for the Ft. Drum area (but leans heavily on the GFS).

This is from Friday morning/afternoon through Saturday morning.

NAM:
The lake effect snow appears to start around 4 pm (if the conditions are perfect, they could start as early as 1 pm, but we'd be on the southern fringe of the band). The NAM only has the band hanging around us until about 7 pm, before dropping it south. The model only runs through 8 am Saturday.

NAMm:
The lake effect snow appears to start around 5 pm (if conditions are perfect, 2 pm looks to be the earliest start time, but again, we'd be on the southern end of the band). However, the NAMm has the band hanging around here until about 9 am Saturday morning, before it shifts south of us.

GFS:
The lake effect snow appears to start between 5 pm and 8 pm (the earliest being around 11 am, if conditions are perfect, on the southern edge as well). The GFS shifts the band down south of us by 2 am.

My wxsim:
This morning, the forecast from my wxsim was in the 1 to 2 inch range...but this afternoon (with the latest model runs), it was showing 2 to 3 inches Friday night, with another inch possible Saturday during the day. This would bring event totals in the 3 to 4 inch range (and indeed, the sim peaked out at 3.6 inches). The sim also showed a period of heavy snow for about an hour early Friday night, and showed the moderate snows ending around 6 am.

It appears that after the lake effect bands shift away, there will be light snows over the region (and maybe before, as well). The light snow would account for the up to an additional inch on Saturday on my sim.

48-Hour Forecast:
Reviewing all of the above data, along with the previous days' thoughts from the NWS, I believe the LES (Lake Effect Snow) will start between 2 pm to 4 pm on Friday (the 26th) and last until about 3 am to 4 am, when it shifts south of the Watertown area (the end time being a compromise between the 3 models and my wxsim). Afterwords, light snows will continue through the day on Saturday, tapering off through the afternoon hours.

LES snowfall totals:
Watertown: 4-6 inches, 7+ possible in localized areas.
Fort Drum: 3-5 inches, 6+ possible in localized areas.

Totals are very subjective, and can easily change due to the following:
1. LES bands set up in a different area, due to different wind directions than forecast
2. LES bands move out of the area quicker than I think they will, due to winds shifting quicker
3. LES bands never fully develop, due to constantly shifting winds

Higher elevations are likely to see significantly higher accumulations, and the Tug Hill region will likely see the brunt of this system (TH is farther south than I am forecasting).

See? Isn't trying to forecast a LES event fun?! So much can change, and just a small change in wind direction is the difference between sunny skies and a foot of snow in less than a 30 mile area. Last I checked, the NWS has not guessed at snow totals yet, will be interested in that (we are now under a Lake Effect Snow Watch, but have not read it yet).

[brunota2003]

Here is the aforementioned LES Watch, perhaps my forecast is too low? I don't think so though, we aren't in the most favored snow belts.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010


NYZ006>008-250500-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.101126T2000Z-101128T0000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
348 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INCLUDING JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND NORTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES.

* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT IN AREAS
WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
IN VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* IMPACTS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY PRODUCE
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO
BE FOUND AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/JJR/SAGE



And the new AFD (341 pm posting):

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THIS WILL BE A VERY CHALLENGING PERIOD TO FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND THE IMPLICATIONS THAT THE POTENTIALS
WOULD HAVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START OFF TAME ENOUGH WITH JUST A HIGH
PROBABILITY RAIN EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS A HALF
INCH OR MORE OVERNIGHT. THE PARENT POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BECOMING ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR REGION
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT
MINUS 10C BY EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCHES WILL BEGIN AT NOON FRIDAY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND 3 PM
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WE WILL RUN THEM THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE PREDICTING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE SINCE JUST A FEW
MILE DIFFERENCE WOULD HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON A LARGELY POPULATED
AREA. AT THIS TIME THE WATCH WILL INCLUDE AREAS AS FAR NORTH OF
GENESEE AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES BUT THE HEAVIEST MAY REMAIN SOUTH
OF A BUFFALO BATAVIA LINE.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT IS A POTENTIAL AS WELL. IT MAY
INCLUDE AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS WATERTOWN BEFORE IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
LATE SATURDAY. TRAVEL ON ROUTE 81 COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT
ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGES OF ANY SNOW BANDS THAT DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

TYPICAL FOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW...THERE MAY BE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING WITHIN HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES
ARE INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PLENTY OF LIFT THROUGH THE
FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION.

THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR AND A LITTLE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. WE EXPECT LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN. LAKE ONTARIO
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LONGER AND MAY STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OSWEGO
COUNTY AND MAYBE WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA AS WELL.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SUNDAY LAKE SNOWS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEPLETES...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FALL AND TEMPERATURES
WARM ALOFT. OFF LAKE ERIE THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS QUITE DRY IN SNOW
GROWTH CRYSTAL AREA AND THUS JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES SHALL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. OFF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS STILL REMAIN ABOVE 8K FEET AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE REMAINING
IN THE CRYSTAL SNOW GROWTH AREA WILL START SUNDAY WITH LIKELY
POPS...AND TAPER DOWN TO JUST CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

[brunota2003]

NWS put out a LES Warning now, expecting accumulations of possibly more than a foot.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

NYZ006>008-251700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.101126T2000Z-101128T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0005.101126T2000Z-101128T0000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
354 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INCLUDING JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND NORTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES.

* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT IN AREAS
WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH MAY PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES IN VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* IMPACTS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY PRODUCE
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

[brunota2003]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Likewise, while waiting, I will put out my own guesstimates as to what the snow totals will be (for the Watertown/Ft. Drum area only!). The possible snowfall duration depends on what model you use, and right now the only ones on BUFKIT I can see that far out on are the NAM, NAMm and GFS (RUC only goes through Thursday morning). Another source I can use is my wxsim, which is set up to create a forecast for the Ft. Drum area (but leans heavily on the GFS).

This is from Friday morning/afternoon through Saturday morning.

NAM:
The lake effect snow appears to start around 4 pm (if the conditions are perfect, they could start as early as 1 pm, but we'd be on the southern fringe of the band). The NAM only has the band hanging around us until about 7 pm, before dropping it south. The model only runs through 8 am Saturday.

NAMm:
The lake effect snow appears to start around 5 pm (if conditions are perfect, 2 pm looks to be the earliest start time, but again, we'd be on the southern end of the band). However, the NAMm has the band hanging around here until about 9 am Saturday morning, before it shifts south of us.

GFS:
The lake effect snow appears to start between 5 pm and 8 pm (the earliest being around 11 am, if conditions are perfect, on the southern edge as well). The GFS shifts the band down south of us by 2 am.

My wxsim:
This morning, the forecast from my wxsim was in the 1 to 2 inch range...but this afternoon (with the latest model runs), it was showing 2 to 3 inches Friday night, with another inch possible Saturday during the day. This would bring event totals in the 3 to 4 inch range (and indeed, the sim peaked out at 3.6 inches). The sim also showed a period of heavy snow for about an hour early Friday night, and showed the moderate snows ending around 6 am.

It appears that after the lake effect bands shift away, there will be light snows over the region (and maybe before, as well). The light snow would account for the up to an additional inch on Saturday on my sim.

48-Hour Forecast:
Reviewing all of the above data, along with the previous days' thoughts from the NWS, I believe the LES (Lake Effect Snow) will start between 2 pm to 4 pm on Friday (the 26th) and last until about 3 am to 4 am, when it shifts south of the Watertown area (the end time being a compromise between the 3 models and my wxsim). Afterwords, light snows will continue through the day on Saturday, tapering off through the afternoon hours.

LES snowfall totals:
Watertown: 4-6 inches, 7+ possible in localized areas.
Fort Drum: 3-5 inches, 6+ possible in localized areas.

Totals are very subjective, and can easily change due to the following:
1. LES bands set up in a different area, due to different wind directions than forecast
2. LES bands move out of the area quicker than I think they will, due to winds shifting quicker
3. LES bands never fully develop, due to constantly shifting winds

Higher elevations are likely to see significantly higher accumulations, and the Tug Hill region will likely see the brunt of this system (TH is farther south than I am forecasting).

See? Isn't trying to forecast a LES event fun?! So much can change, and just a small change in wind direction is the difference between sunny skies and a foot of snow in less than a 30 mile area. Last I checked, the NWS has not guessed at snow totals yet, will be interested in that (we are now under a Lake Effect Snow Watch, but have not read it yet).

My 24-hour forecast is fairly similar to the one I created yesterday. The reasoning remains pretty much the same, but the totals are going to change a little. The NWS mentioned this morning that it appears an intense band may form near or just south of the Watertown area Friday night, before drifting to the south.

"ALSO...ITS WORTH NOTING THE
MORE SW SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING MAY ALLOW A
FAIRLY INTENSE BAND IN OR NEAR WATERTOWN...THOUGH THIS REMAINS A
TOUGH FORECAST."

Another issue is when the bands will manage to become organized, as dry air and wind shifts look like they will prevent good organization, at least right away.

24-hour forecast LES Totals:
Watertown: 5-7 inches, 8+ possible in localized areas
Fort Drum: 3-5 inches, 6+ possible

[brunota2003]

This morning's AFD from Buffalo about the pending LES event:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF
THE CWA ON FRIDAY MORNING...QUICKLY EXITING EAST. OUTSIDE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT EARLY...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND MAINLY LAKE EFFECT.

850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO AROUND -10 C BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY INCREASING ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE
INVERSION DEEPENS. INITIALLY...LAKE INDUCED CAPES ONLY RUN AROUND
300 J/KG BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A STRONG FLOW...EXPECT DRY AIR
TO LIMIT BAND DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN A WSW FLOW...GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
SOUTHTOWNS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OFF OF LAKE ERIE...AND THE TUG HILL
OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS THE UPPER LOW...AND FORTUNATELY THIS IS
NOT A SUBTLE FEATURE...SO MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSELY CLUSTERED IN ITS
TIMING. THIS TROF AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
ON SATURDAY (LATE FRIDAY NIGHT). THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE SW
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE TROF...AND ALSO DEEPEN THE INVERSION
LEADING TO THE BEST LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR THE EVENT.
CONVERSELY...BEHIND THE TROF...EXPECT A MORE W OR WSW FLOW...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT BANDS BACK SOUTHWARD.

FOR LAKE ERIE AND BUFFALO AND VICINITY...IT APPEARS THE SOUTH TOWNS
AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WILL SEE THE MOST PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT BANDS...WITH THE MOST DEVELOPED BANDS LIKELY TO BE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BAND SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
AROUND FRIDAY EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO OR
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH TOWNS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE BAND IS STILL IN QUESTION. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS...EXPECT
BUFFALO NORTHWARD TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE WOODS. BANDS SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE CITY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY LOOSE STRUCTURE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AS LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING. UPSLOPING WILL BECOME THE MAIN
FACTOR...WITH THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FEEL THE RGEM BETTER CAPTURES QPF FOR THIS
EVENT THAN THE NAM...THOUGH ITS AMOUNTS ARE OVERDONE...WHILE THE
NAM12 LOOKS A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH AT TIMES.

OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...OVERALL HAVE A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE...WITH A
LONGER PERIOD OF DEEPER INSTABILITY...AND THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
OF THE TUG HILL. AGAIN...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN LIFTING
THE BAND NORTHWARD...WITH MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY STARTING WITH A
MORE W FLOW...SHIFTING SW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK W ON
SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO LAST LONGER
HERE...PROBABLY WELL INTO SATURDAY ON THE TUG HILL. EXPECT
MEANDERING BANDS TO CROSS PORTIONS I-81 FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO...ITS WORTH NOTING THE
MORE SW SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING MAY ALLOW A
FAIRLY INTENSE BAND IN OR NEAR WATERTOWN...THOUGH THIS REMAINS A
TOUGH FORECAST. STILL...NOT JUST A TUG HILL EVENT...THOUGH THE TUG
HILL IS LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS.

BASED ON ABOVE DISCUSSION...WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH UP
OFF OF LAKE ERIE...WITH QUESTIONS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE BAND...AND LINGERING ADVISORIES UP...HOPE ONE MORE MODEL RUN
WILL HELP PIN THIS DOWN. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...HAVE BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. SOME LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
BANDS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. IT WILL BE BRISK...WITH DAYTIME WIND GUSTS
IN THE 30 MPH TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LAKE INDUCED...SO BETWEEN BANDS...SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY
CLEARING.

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINING LONGEST OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. OFF LAKE ERIE...AN
INVERSION AT 5K FEET WILL LIMIT LAKE INDUCED CAPE...AND PERHAPS SNOW
GROWTH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER UNSTABLE LAYER OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE TOO
WELL ALIGNED...WHICH WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED BANDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ACTIVITY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A MORE W TO WNW FLOW...WITH
BANDS SHIFTING TUG HILL SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY LAKE SNOWS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEPLETES...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FALL AND TEMPERATURES
WARM ALOFT. OFF LAKE ERIE THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS QUITE DRY IN SNOW
GROWTH CRYSTAL AREA AND THUS JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES SHALL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. OFF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE THERE IS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR -SHSN...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY GOES ON
AS DAYTIME MIXING AND DRYER AIR DIMINISH POTENTIAL.

[brunota2003]

The latest is out for us from the NWS...here is the forecast from the NWS for the Watertown/Fort Drum area:

Friday: Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after noon. High near 37. Breezy, with a west wind between 18 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Friday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. Breezy, with a west wind between 16 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

So, Friday and Friday night, 4 to 9 inches expected. My forecast isn't too shabby then (and a bit tighter, too).

The latest LES Warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EST THU NOV 25 2010

NYZ006>008-260500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.101126T2000Z-101128T0000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
400 PM EST THU NOV 25 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INCLUDING JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND NORTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES.

* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FRIDAY EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR
THE ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR FROM WATERTOWN TO CARTHAGE AND HARRISVILLE
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE BAND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE TUG HILL REGION BEFORE MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATER FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
IN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* IMPACTS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/JJR/SAGE


And the latest AFD as well (7 pm):

...WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR CROSSING THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE
GREAT LAKES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
SHALLOW /4-5 KFT DEPTH/ MOISTURE IN THE DRY SLOT AND DIURNAL
INFLUENCES MAY TEND TO KEEP THE ACTIVITY LIMITED IN SCOPE AS IT
TRIES TO GET ORGANIZED ON AN INITIAL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT THE LAKE SNOWS TO GRADUALLY GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK TO MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND
FETCH INCREASES...AND AS LARGER-SCALE MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY
DEEPEN AGAIN...AS PER THE 12Z GEM/GFS WHICH CURRENTLY APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE BANDS
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND SLOWLY
GAINING STRENGTH WITH TIME...ENOUGH TO PERHAPS DROP A FEW INCHES
DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.

WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY /SEE THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS/...HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ERIE AND
GENESEE COUNTIES. WHILE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WE CAN
EXPECT...FEEL ALL ZONES WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ARE AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR WARNING-CRITERIA AMOUNTS. EVEN IF WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS
ARE ULTIMATELY NOT REALIZED IN SOME LOCATIONS...CONSIDERING THAT
THIS IS THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON...THE FACT THAT IT IS
OCCURRING ON A MAJOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT...THE WARNING IS EASILY JUSTIFIED BASED ON
POTENTIAL IMPACT ALONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE EARLY PART OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE VERY CHALLENGING AND
CRITICAL DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF LAKE
EFFECT BANDS FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THOSE GENERATED OFF LAKE ERIE
WHERE JUST A LITTLE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE
OVER A HIGHLY POPULATED REGION.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR WILL BE A WELL STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A DEEP LAYER OF WELL ALIGNED WEST
TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND MINUS 10C WHICH WILL GIVE US MODERATE
INSTABILITY CONSIDERING LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 9C. THERE ARE SOME
CRITICAL DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE NAM12 AND THE GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TARGETED SOUTH OF METRO BUFFALO AND BATAVIA BUT
THE GEM REGIONAL WOULD GIVE BUFFALO AND BATAVIA A HALF INCH OF QPF
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH OF THE LAKES AND THE FACT THAT
THE WINDS CLIMATOLOGICALLY BACK MORE THIS TIME OF YEAR BECAUSE OF
THAT FACT...WE WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS IN PLACE AS FAR
NORTH AS GENESEE AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP
EDGE THOUGH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY STILL LIKELY SOUTH OF A
BUFFALO BATAVIA LINE.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE STEERING WINDS WILL VEER AS THE WELL STACKED
LOW MOVES EAST AND THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL MARCH SOUTHWARD AND
FAVOR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WE HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT THE STEERING WINDS
ARE SOUTHWEST LONGER. WE ARE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WATERTOWN
WILL GET WARNING CRITERIA LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAN BUFFALO. STILL
THOUGH THE TUG HILL AREA WILL GET HIT THE HARDEST. THE WINDS WILL
VEER A FEW HOURS LATER THAN THE LAKE ERIE SCENARIO BUT THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR THROUGH THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WE WILL STILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES WILL BE
LOWER. WE WILL CARRY JUST A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS. WILL
KEEP POPS A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THERE MAY
BE SOME UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER US FROM THE WEST...

[brunota2003]

Also, there is talk of another possible LES event Wednesday into Wednesday night, but it is still too far out at this point to guess at anything.

Long term section of the 7 pm AFD talking about it:

COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12 GFS DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ON THE COLD
FRONT ON LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL DIGGING TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE LEE SIDE LOW ADVANCES
NORTHWARD UP THE EASTCOAST...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO
REACH PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...AND MAYBE EVEN COOLER UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW BRINGING THE COLDER AIR ALOFT IN QUICKER
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO ATTENTION WILL BE BACK TOWARDS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING -8 TO -10C AIR ACROSS THE LAKES LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OFF BOTH LAKES THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS RISE TO OVER 10K FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEER WILL
LIKELY LIMIT LAKE SNOW BAND FORMATION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AND
THOUGH THE MODELS DO SHOW WINDS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED LATER
WEDNESDAY...WHAT IMPACT THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ITS IMPACT ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINS TO BE SEEN THIS FAR OUT.
FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE SNOWS...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT SOUTH OF THE CITIES OF BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN.

[brunota2003]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Final forecast for this event, as the snows are just starting (LES is slowly ramping up, just light snow right now though). I am going to be pushing the totals up quite a bit, as it looks like the winds will be more favorable than originally forecast for the Fort Drum/Watertown area. Per obs from the METAR at Wheeler Sack Army Air Base, it started snowing around 12 pm.

Model breakdown:

There is one more model I can use in my BUFKIT now that we are on the cusp of the event starting, that is the RUC, along with the NAM, NAMm, and GFS.

NAM:
The LES band started to form around 12 pm, so I will only be placing an end time, which is 3 am Saturday morning. It places the band mostly to our north and south, with us near the edge, which would help keep totals down a little.

NAMm:
This model has the LES band pushing south of us by 5 am. The difference between this model and the NAM is that this one has the band directly over us for a few hours this evening, before we end up near the edges.

GFS:
This model has the LES ending between 2 am and 5 am. The GFS also has the LES band directly overtop of us for several hours, but this one is in the midnight time frame.

RUC:
The RUC has the LES band ending around 5 am. This model is closer to the NAM, though, in that it keeps us mostly on the outer edges of the band.

After the bands shift to the south, it still appears there might be a brief period of light snow, but I expect all the heavier snow to be over by noon.

Last forecast for this event:
The LES has already started, and the bands will gradually become better organized as the afternoon wears on. I will be upping the snow totals, due to the models thinking the band will set up over us for a few hours and the length being a bit longer. I have shifted the end time to between 4 am and 5 am, as well. I am giving Fort Drum more snow than Watertown this time around due to the fact the models show Drum further into the band, if only slightly.

LES Snowfall Totals:
Watertown: 8-10 inches, with a foot or more possible
Fort Drum: 9-11 inches, with a foot or more possible

[brunota2003]

NWS forecast for Fort Drum:


This Afternoon: Snow showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a west wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Southwest wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow showers, mainly before 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. West wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers after 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%

Latest LES Warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1144 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2010

NYZ006>008-270045-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.101126T2000Z-101128T0000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1144 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS: JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.

* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE TUG HILL REGION AND OSWEGO COUNTY BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 12 INCHES. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH.

* VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS: VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.


And latest AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1247 PM EST FRI NOV 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STEADIER LAKES SNOWS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS AND
TIMES IDENTIFIED BELOW.

AT NOON...AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS FOCUSING
EAST OF LAKE ERIE GENERALLY FROM HAMBURG TO WARSAW AND INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A COATING TO MAYBE AN INCH. LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12 SUGGESTING THAT THE "MAIN" LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE
ORGANIZING ON A 240 TO 250 FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z
AND THEN RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY ON THIS GENERAL FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z TONIGHT...BEFORE THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA VEERING WINDS MORE WESTERLY AND ALLOWING THE LAKE BAND TO
SETTLE SOUTH. WITH VERY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS IN
PLACE...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MORE THAN LIKELY OCCUR WITH
THIS BAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF COURSE ARE ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL...BUT
WE CAN SEE RATES AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE
AMOUNT OF FORECAST INSTABILITY AND NEARLY FULL FETCH OF THE LAKE
AVAILABLE.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DIRECT
THE STEADIEST SNOW INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING THE WATERTOWN AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BASED ON THIS...EXPECT
THE HEAVIER SNOW TO STILL BE IMPACTING JEFFERSON COUNTY FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

THE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CREATE FREQUENT WHITEOUTS IN THE VCNTY OF THE HEAVIER LAKE
SNOWS.

AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AS A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY THE SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL START SATURDAY ACROSS
QUEBEC...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY MORNING. THE EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS TROF WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE W OR NW IN ITS WAKE...SHIFTING LAKE
EFFECT BANDS SOUTHWARD. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
WARM AS A RESULT...DIMINISHING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...AND
BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. FOR THE DETAILS...

OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH THE TROF ALREADY EAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY STATE WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 270 FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL START OFF STRONG...WITH 40
KTS AT 925 MB...AND A FAIRLY DEEP CAP ALLOWING FOR LAKE INDUCED
CAPES OF 500 J/KG. STRONG FLOW WILL LIMIT RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKE...BUT WITH GOOD LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...EXPECT DISORGANIZED
BANDS TO PERSIST...WITH SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF BUFFALO...WITH THE
BEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THIS SAID...THE STRONG
FLOW SHOULD PUSH BANDS WELL INLAND...WITH LIGHTER BUT ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAKING IT WELL INTO CATTARAUGUS AND WYOMING COUNTIES. WINDS
DIMINISH...AND THE INVERSION LOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF BY DAYBREAK.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE DAY WILL START WITH THE TROF IMMEDIATELY TO
THE EAST...WITH FAIRLY INTENSE SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
WATERTOWN IN A SW TO EVEN A SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT RATHER ABRUPTLY BEHIND THE TROF TO W AND EVENTUALLY NW. EXPECT
THE WINDS SHIFT TO DISRUPT ORGANIZED BANDING A BIT...BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF NEAR 700 J/KG IN A DEEP
UNSTABLE LAYER...EXPECT CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST EVEN AS
WINDS SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG
HILL...WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE TUG HILL NEAR MID-DAY OR SO. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME A BIT
BETTER ALIGNED...WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION LIKELY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A WNW FLOW POINTING TOWARD OSWEGO COUNTY. NOTED THE
RGEM IS FASTER AND MORE NW WITH ITS WINDS THAN THE NAM...AND
FORECAST BLENDS THE TWO MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF BAND
PLACEMENT. LAKE INDUCED CAPES WILL DECREASE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THE 850 MB FLOW FORECAST TO BE MORE
NW...AND NOT TERRIBLY WELL ALIGNED WITH A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY. GUSTS
WILL VARY BY LOCATION...BUT WITH 925 MB WINDS 35 TO 40 KTS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE UPPER TROF...THERE IS A WIND GUST POTENTIAL
OF AROUND 40 MPH. WHETHER THIS IS REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON
INSTABILITY...WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKES...AND SUNSHINE BOTH
AIDING MIXING. DESPITE THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...THERE WILL
BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND MODEST WINDS
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR SUNDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...LARGELY BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON LAKE
ERIE...WITH TAPERING ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.
HIGHS WILL PUSH 40 IN THE BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO AREAS FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE.

[hooper]

I missed last winter thanks to a deployment to Iraq, which knocks down my winters from 3 to 2 up here, thankfully!

As a SUNY Oswego alum, now living in the relatively mild Pacific Northwest, it really made me laugh to see that you considered deployment to a war zone to be preferable to a winter on the east side of Lake Ontario. I have to admit, I get kind of nostalgic for those early morning hunts for my car buried in the dorm parking lot along with 500 other cars under an overnight dump of 4 ft. It was sort of like looking for buried treasure, but much much colder.

Anyway, thank you for your service to our country, and keep warm!

[brunota2003]

I missed last winter thanks to a deployment to Iraq, which knocks down my winters from 3 to 2 up here, thankfully!

As a SUNY Oswego alum, now living in the relatively mild Pacific Northwest, it really made me laugh to see that you considered deployment to a war zone to be preferable to a winter on the east side of Lake Ontario. I have to admit, I get kind of nostalgic for those early morning hunts for my car buried in the dorm parking lot along with 500 other cars under an overnight dump of 4 ft. It was sort of like looking for buried treasure, but much much colder.

Anyway, thank you for your service to our country, and keep warm!

Well, growing up in the South, colder for me was mornings with lows in the teens and highs in the 30s, not highs in the negatives with 4 foot of fresh snow on the ground! The winter in Iraq, just east of Baghdad, was much more similar to a winter I am used to...even if every time it rained, everything literally turned into deep mud.

I should of stuck with my original forecast, however, because I think my last update is going to bust. The snows off of both lakes just have not organized well...with only a slight coating on the ground here in the Fort Drum area...mainly along the edges of the sidewalks and in some spots on the parking lot. Sure, they can organize more tonight, but even the NWS is becoming a little skeptical:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT SO FAR HAS BEEN VERY UNIMPRESSIVE OFF
ERIE. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE IN OFF THE
LAKE...AND FLOW HAS BACKED SLIGHTLY PAST HOUR TO ALLOW ITS
NORTHERN EDGE TO LIFT TO ABOUT A DOWNTOWN BUF TO AIRPORT
LINE...BUT ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS AREA HAS BEEN QUITE LIGHT WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION BY MID EVENING...BUT
UPSTREAM RADARS...ESP KCLE...SHOW A DRYING TREND...SO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE APPEARING LESS LIKELY FOR BUF METRO AND ALL OF
NORTHERN ERIE...PERHAPS 1 TO 3 MAX...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
WILL LEAVE ALL FLAGS AS IS FOR NOW AND ISSUE HOURLY SPS`S TO
DEFINE THE ACTIVITY...BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE MORE DRAMATIC CHANGES
IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE AROUND 10 PM IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
UPDATED POP AND TEMP GRIDS ALONG WITH AFM/PFM. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

LK ONTARIO ACTIVITY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SO FAR TOO...BUT THEIR
ACTIVITY WAS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO ORGANIZED THIS EARLY ANYWAY.

There have been a few attempts at bands forming, but every time they fall apart and reorganize somewhere else.

However, having just looked at the radar, it seems a band is finally strengthening in southern Jefferson (just north of Oswego), and another just a tad north of that (just south of Watertown) is starting to form, and for the first time today, the bands are starting to show over the eastern edge of Lake Ontario as well (on radar).

Radar image at 0034 UTC (7:34 pm)
http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/7039/0034snow.png

Radar image at 0134 UTC (8:34 pm)
http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/7958/0134snow.png

What is interesting is the one called "SW" on there, not sure exactly what that product is...but it shows the developing lake effect bands before they show on the base images (above), so before they start dropping precip.
0034 UTC SW:
http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/6827/0034sw.png
0134 UTC SW:
http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/79/0134sw.png

[brunota2003]

Well, I set my webcam up yesterday afternoon, and did some timelapse shots of the lake effect snows. In one of them, you can barely make out turkeys going across the barracks yard (it was dark, but you can see their silhouettes). In another one that was taken later in the night, you can plainly see a few deer out for a like 3 am stroll.

First Lake Effect Of The Season Timelapse 1

This timelapse runs from about 3 pm to 10 pm, the worst of the storm didn't come through until way later on, in another video I made (#3 to be exact). This is on Black Friday, 26 November, 2010. The sky lighting up is due in part to the clouds thickening and lowering as the bands start to crank up, reflecting the lights from Fort Drum. Watch close as it goes from just when the ground becomes visible to the end and see how quick the snow covered the ground.

[vbhoutex]

I hope you have the webcam set up when some monster les set up. That would be interesting(?if you can see anything) to watch as it happens.

[brunota2003]

I hope you have the webcam set up when some monster les set up. That would be interesting(?if you can see anything) to watch as it happens.

Haha, apparently as the clouds lower and thicken, the light gets reflected enough to allow the camera to "see" (along with myself) what is going on outside. I got all three videos loaded on youtube and will give the links to them. In the 3rd one, you can see 3 deer (how ironic) walking across the screen a few times. You can also see just how quick the visibilities drop as the bands move in and out of the area. I did learn that I need something to keep the window warm and clear of snow, or get a webcam that doesn't autofocus.

Video #1 (same as above, but youtube link) goes from about 3 pm to 10 pm.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EG6RaPYNag0

Video #2 goes from about 10 pm to 12:50 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iit6l448pCI

Video #3 goes from about 12:50 am to 11 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4PvTuYrq3w

I split the videos up because of size concerns (the 3rd one is 1.03 gigs, but I compressed it to 15 mb) and because the program I used to create the timelapses is new to me, so if the power goes out, I'm not sure if the videos would just end there, or if it would corrupt the files and I lose the timelapse I was filming. It was really windy, and with the first snow of the season, not too trustworthy of drivers and trees!

[brunota2003]

Here are some unofficial obs from the area:

*********************MAXIMUM WIND SPEED*********************

LOCATION MAXIMUM WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SPEED OF
(MPH) MEASUREMENT


NEW YORK

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
WATERTOWN 52 513 AM 11/27 THUNDERSNOW

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
CARTHAGE 5.5 745 AM 11/27 COCORAHS
WATERTOWN 5.0 749 AM 11/27
THERESA 4.0 800 AM 11/27 COCORAHS
WATERTOWN 2.9 700 AM 11/27 COCORAHS

[vbhoutex]

Saw your pics on FB. Post some of them here.