Siberian Express January/February 2011

[srainhoutx]

Blech ... the 0z model runs do not continue the trend of Arctic Armageddon which we saw yesterday.

I'll quote a line from one of my favorite movies -- Stripes -- when John Winger (Bill Murray) says: "And then .... depression set in."

And then the 06Z GFS brings it back. Flip Flop...

[wxman57]

Blech ... the 0z model runs do not continue the trend of Arctic Armageddon which we saw yesterday.

I'll quote a line from one of my favorite movies -- Stripes -- when John Winger (Bill Murray) says: "And then .... depression set in."

And then the 06Z GFS brings it back. Flip Flop...

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... PNA240.gif

But the 6Z GFS only forecasts a 2m temp of 32 on Saturday the 22nd as the coldest low next week.

[srainhoutx]

In SE TX, wxman57. Certainly not in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

[Portastorm]

I have not looked at the ensembles so perhaps they have a different look. But I'm rather confounded (yes folks, that happens easily!) by the look. The PNA is progged to go positive. Bitter cold air seems poised to cross the pole into northwest Canada. Usually this means some ridging develops in the west and brings it down.

Maybe we can chalk it up to models struggling with the pattern. Yeah, that's it! The models are struggling with the pattern. That's our story and I'm sticking to it.

[wxman57]

[quote="srainhoutx"]In SE TX, wxman57. Certainly not in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... btest8.gif[quote]

Fortunately, I don't live up in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area, so I don't care how cold they get up there next week. They can have the next shot.

[Ivanhater]

Models are latching onto another arctic outbreak heading into the U.S and making it down south. Obviously, the details of exactly where are not clear yet. Looks like Mrs. La Nina is still on her extended vacation. This winter has been anything but warm and dry.

Another 1052 high sliding out of Canada

[Tejas89]

FW NWS alludes to another arctic front mid-next week, but models "do not have a good handle on it"...

[MGC]

Yea, where is the La Nina warmth? 8th coldest December in the New Orleans area. It has been dry though....MGC

[GCANE]

12Z GFS 240 Hrs out (1/22/11) looks absolutely wicked.

Temp anamolies bottom out at 850mb.

[Metalicwx220]

Blech ... the 0z model runs do not continue the trend of Arctic Armageddon which we saw yesterday.

I'll quote a line from one of my favorite movies -- Stripes -- when John Winger (Bill Murray) says: "And then .... depression set in."

And then the 06Z GFS brings it back. Flip Flop...

Cough cough probably gonna moderate a lot cough cough.

[srainhoutx]

Way too much spread in the ensembles. I'd give the models time to settle down before writing this off.

[Ntxw]

I see no reason models would bottle it up! At least for the central part of the United States

[Portastorm]

It appears that the operational model runs we are seeing this morning still struggle with the ongoing pattern. HPC suggests that until they (the models) figure out the Pacific, large discrepancies will exist downstream. Read on ...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 20 2011

A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DAYS 3-5 BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST COAST DAY
6-7...WHILE IN THE WEST MAINLY ZONAL FLOW...WITH SOME DAY-TO-DAY
VARIABILITY...WILL LINGER THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE A LONGWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH IN TURN HELPS TO FORM A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. GENERALLY SPEAKING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE AND RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY IS POOR AS EARLY
AS DAY 3...IN LARGE PART TO THE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING SMALL
SCALE SYSTEM DETAILS OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM AND
EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER CANADA. TO
ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A HEAVY DOSE OF THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL DAYS...WITH ONLY 30 PERCENT THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF MIXED WITH THE MEANS DAYS 3-5 TO EXTRACT AS MUCH
DETERMINISTIC DETAIL AS THE SOLUTION SPREAD SUPPORTS.
OTHERWISE...BY DAYS 6-7 THE PREFERENCE IS FOR 100 PERCENT ENSEMBLE
MEANS...WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUITE DUE
TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION AND GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS USED TO
CREATE THE MEAN. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS VERY CLOSE AND
COULD BE USED AS AN ALTERNATIVE.

[Portastorm]

Both the 12z Euro and UKMet show strong ridging developing off the Pacific coast at 144 hrs. Hmmm ... more Arctic air on the way?!

[wxman57]

Both the 12z Euro and UKMet show strong ridging developing off the Pacific coast at 144 hrs. Hmmm ... more Arctic air on the way?!

I'm afraid that's a good possibility. This may be a shallower layer of colder air, the kind that could lead to an ice storm in the Southern Plains with the trof axis well west of the Arctic air. Models won't handle this type of outbreak well at all, particularly the surface pressure pattern and front location.

[Ntxw]

I'm afraid that's a good possibility. This may be a shallower layer of colder air, the kind that could lead to an ice storm in the Southern Plains with the trof axis well west of the Arctic air. Models won't handle this type of outbreak well at all, particularly the surface pressure pattern and front location.

The heat miser agrees?! Hell is about to freeze over!

[Texas Snowman]

I'm afraid that's a good possibility. This may be a shallower layer of colder air, the kind that could lead to an ice storm in the Southern Plains with the trof axis well west of the Arctic air. Models won't handle this type of outbreak well at all, particularly the surface pressure pattern and front location.

The heat miser agrees?! Hell is about to freeze over!

Yep, that caught my attention too. When Wxman57 says there is a chance of Arctic air in Texas, look out. Better bundle up!!!!!

[sherry]

I hope this stays away from NC. While I love snow my kids have missed a whole week of school. They are to go back on Tuesday. I don't want them home any longer than that.

[northjaxpro]

1/15/11

Morning Long Range Discussion from Atlanta, GA Peachtree City WFO


From Atlanta,GA extended.....

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS DURING
THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WHEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC OUTBREAK INTO THE EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY. FOR
TUE-WED...PREFER THE GFS SCENARIO WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED. THUS...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUE...SHIFTING EAST TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. A
WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY TUE...BUT SHOULD ERODE FROM ALL
EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NE COUNTIES BY TUE AFTERNOON. TUE SHOULD OFFER
THE WARMEST TEMPS TO THE REGION WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME...BUT
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP IT COOLER THAN IT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE. ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR WED AS A MODIFIED
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BY THU...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN THE PREDOMINATE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HERALD THE
BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
AS NOTED YESTERDAY...THE SOURCE OF THIS AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS RUSSIA...AND TRAVELS ACROSS THE N POLE AND INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THE CORE OF THIS AIR CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS NEAR
-40C. THIS COLD OUTBREAK MAY RIVAL THE 12-13 DEC COLD OUTBREAK AS
850MB TEMPS APPROACH -18C ACROSS N GA TO -10C ACROSS CENTRAL GA.HOWEVER...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST AS LONG AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY KICKS THE DEEPEST COLD AIR OUT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE
UNDERCUT THE MEX MOS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FRI-SAT PERIOD...GIVEN
HISTORY OF SUCH EVENTS THIS WINTER WITH SIMILAR 850MB PROGGED TEMPS.
GUIDANCE TENDING WAY TOO MUCH TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND NOT PROPERLY
ACCOUNTING FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD AIR. STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILLS THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

[Suncat]

While the models are starting to point to significant cold air dropping south, what do the potential precipitation amounts look like?

BTW, the Old Farmer's Almanac for the Southeast Region (Southern VA to Georgia) calls for a snowstorm in the north and rain to snow in the south, turning very cold for January 18 - 25. We'll see.