2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

[PTPatrick]

Admittedly, I didn't pay much attention to ths system, after the last one dudded out I just didn't care that much. But I do know that they said snow would start around lunch time....I had an inch this morningst 6 am. Not saying itll translate to higher totals, but their timing was off and I suspect based on some of the heavy green echoes on radar commutes will be crappy. That is all.

[PTPatrick]

Scratch that...nearing 3, comin down hard. Watching the tube this mornings looks like a mess on the roads... I noticed the couple arteries by my house that generally stay wet are white and iced over when I when I walked the dog... Good times.


UPDATE: my 10 minute commute took 40. Roads around east Denver are completely iced. I have never seen Colo BLVD so iced over. No snow pack, just Ice pack. I guess it was the perfect combo of water content and temps in the upper 20s that caused everything to freeze up. No plows in site(im guessing its because it it a few hours early and now the traffic is so bad they cant plow much), not that it will help much with the layer of ice. unless they get the mag chloride down(which I dont think they did), it will probably just have to melt with more driving and UV. IN any case, saw on the news it appears to be by far the worst commute this year. Amazing how a little 3 inch storm can reak havoc when it hits at rush hour with no mag chloride or plows on the road.

[PTPatrick]

snow finally stopped, have a peek of sun now... ended up with 5 inches here around central Denver. I thought it would let up about when I got to work but it seemed to come in waves...nuked again from about 930-10...rest of the day was lightish.

[VoodooCadillac]

Haven't reported in awhile because we (Fort Collins) have been skipped over by the last couple of clipper type systems that hit Denver fairly hard. But yesterday we had about 1." Not much, but hit at about 3:00 PM, making the evening commute interesting.

YTD - 33."

[PTPatrick]

After a couple of dry weeks got a nice little dump of snow this morning. Wasnt expecting even a dusting, but we got nearly 2 inches here in east Denver at work. It just dumped for like 2 hours and now its letting up. Despite seemingly warmer and non-snowy January snow has ended up to be about average and we are little ahead for the whole year.

[VoodooCadillac]

We had a quick 1" in Fort Collins from the little front that moved through Friday - bringing the YTD total to 34."

I see the weather guys are getting excited about Thursday & Friday (Feb. 2-3).

[PTPatrick]

Yeah Thursday night is shaping up to interesting. Not biting yet though. It does appear to be an epic storm, but it might miss the front range....gfs and nam still disagreeing somewhat. Canadian has 2inches of qpf as snow in the western KS area. Somebody looks to get socked. Id settle for the half inch that nam gives us, but it could be more. I'm guessing if things continue they throw up a watch tomorrow morning to warn folks and the clean up and put warnings out Thursday morning. Not going to get cranked til Thursday night so hurry.

[denversnowlover]

This one looks to have a lot of gulf moisture being thrown into the mix. Dew points in Texas and Oklahoma already in the 50's. Reading Cheyenne, Denver, and Pueblos' forecast discussions are interesting
Could be huge

[PTPatrick]

Well, the watch is up. Calling for 6-10. With possibility of higher depending on storm track. Looks like after some vacillation gfs and nam have similar amounts in .75 inch range over the metro...with gfs hedging toward more has it features a huge gradient with over 1.5 inches a hundred miles ne of us. That rarely pans out that places like fort Morgan do better than Denver so I'm inclined to think it could model error, also morning disc said that qpf bullseye was over Denver on the gfs. Either way we should be in a favorable zone for snow from about 8 tomorrow night through 8 Friday night. Euro still has the low over la junta area at 0z friday night so seems reasonable that it cold go well into sunrise sat morning. I think 6-10 seems reasonable...has this thing will wind up good causing slight west component of north wind by Friday night...that usually seems to shut things down west of I-25. Lots to watch with models still ironing out details and all their bullseyes being a hundred miles or so off each other.

[denversnowlover]

Well some models have the bullseye over denver and points east!! Yay!!

[VoodooCadillac]

United just issued a travel waiver, so I moved my Friday AM flight to tomorrow (Thursday) PM - try to sneak ahead of the thing!

[denversnowlover]

Wow the nam is quite impressive!

[PTPatrick]

0zNAM just came in much stronger and now painting near 16 inches across the metro, and near 2 feet over Monument...I'll believe it when I see it! Let's see how 0zgfs comes out.

[Dencolo]

Ha, just about to post about the NAM, but see you guys beat me to it. GFS looks more impressive than 18z or 12z runs, but not quite like the 06z of earlier today.

QPF gradients on the GFS are pretty tight near the metro when looking at a map, so hard to say exact amounts. But as you head east of Denver, say around Dear Trail you get up about 1.25".

I'm guessing at least 0.75" qpf for the metro area on this one. Based on the GFS and Nam I'm now thinking the next WSW statement will up the amounts a bit.

BTW, anyone have a preferred local met they watch for good info on possible snow totals?

[denversnowlover]

You should hear the weather channel about us
needless to say will be an exciting few days

[PTPatrick]

Gfs and nam both now showing 16-18 inch bullseyes over Denver...should be fun. Let's hope models don't screw the pooch.


http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[denversnowlover]

Hey PTPatrick! Thanks for the link awesome page!
I am happy they are both saying 16-18 hope it happens woot

[Dencolo]

Looks like portions east of I-25 may get absolutely hammered.

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
INTO SATURDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR...WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE FROM 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF DENVER WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like they upped the totals again for the urban corrido....they seem to be thinking 10-20 inches most with eastern CO...my point forecast Looks like 10-18. The nam coming in now seems to be backing off its crazy totals of last night...But still has near 1.25 inches over the metro and accumulating snow through mid morning Saturday. Below 27 degrees an an inch can make up to 15 inches so even if totals come in a bit lower were likely gonna get socked with a foot. Of course Colorado snow storms always have a way bsurprising you. Let's hope we're not all disappointed tomorrow.

[PTPatrick]

latest models showing:
12z GFS around 1 inch qpf with 12-15 inches
12NAM 1.5 inches give or take...which could make as much as 2 feet if ratios are low enough (around 25 degrees its 15:1), but even at lower ratio of say 12.5:1 inches it still makes 18
CMC has 1.25 inches or around 32 mm if my eyes read the maps right...18 inches

I dont have Euro info. Latest QPF maps off HPC give us aroun 1.3 inches...so basically we have GFS now at the low side and NAM on the higher end. Even with GFS and a low ratio we still get a foot. GFS with higher ratios we get 15. NAM/CMC are giving us 16-20. So things still seem on track.

Point forecasts have now been updated high as well...waiting for a midcycle discussion to get the rationale...but Im showing 6-10 tonight, 4-8 tomorrow and 2-4 tomorrow night. so...1-2 feet.

Will be interesting...I have only seen 2 feet here a couple times in my 6 years in Denver (the December 06 storms and the October 08 storm). There seems to be a huge difference with 1 foot storms and over 18 inches. 1 foot is business as usual...over 18 we start looking at major effects on business and traffic ability to move. Even with the October storm though, the roads were warm enough and the storm spread out enough that it wasnt so bad. I think this being february, and roads being cooler, if we get 18 inches we will see higher impact than the october 08 storm, but not as much as Christmas blizzards of 06 where we had more like 32 inch.