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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND
PRODUCES LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER SO FAR ON TUESDAY. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL END BY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM ABOUT KITCHENER
ONTARIO TO JUST EAST OF CLEVELAND. THE FRONT WILL RACE EAST AND
CROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A RAPID
DIMINISHING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HERE IS THE BREAKDOWN.
SYNOPTIC...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEAR MANITOULIN ISLAND ON
LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
TOWARDS LABRADOR BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL NOT
CLEAR...THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS. LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD NON-LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARPENING OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH.
NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...
OFF LAKE ERIE...
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT GIVEN THE VERY WARM
START AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY MID EVENING TO START A BAND. STRONG
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INITIALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING TOO ORGANIZED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHATEVER DOES FORM
WILL DO SO ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN LATER TONIGHT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
REACHING 250J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 10K FEET BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE WELL ALIGNED OVERNIGHT...AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT AFTER ABOUT
06Z MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WIND SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS SHEAR IS CONCERNED AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY. FORECAST PROFILES AND
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW AND STEADY PROGRESSION
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO TO
SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...THEN
INTO THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING COUNTY...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
SHORELINE BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH STEADILY IMPROVING INSTABILITY EXPECT
THE BAND TO GAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY ON ITS WAY SOUTH...WITH
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY TO REACH 4-6 INCHES ACROSS
THE MORE DISTANT SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO SUCH AS HAMBURG...OP
AND EAST AURORA...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES
AND SOUTHWEST GENESEE COUNTY WITH SEVERAL INCHES IN WESTERN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AS WELL. IN THE IMMEDIATE BUF AREA...EXPECT AN
INCH OR LESS NORTHTOWNS...AND 2-4 INCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CITY INTO THE EASTERN SUBURBS.
ON MONDAY LAKE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES REACHING 400J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 11K FOOT EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH WELL ALIGNED CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE A
NEARLY IDEAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETUP. A LOOK AT OUR LAKE EFFECT
COMPOSITE ANALOG CHARTS SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THIS EVENT
MATCHING UP VERY CLOSELY TO THE ANALOG FOR A MAJOR CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
EVENT...WITH MAJOR BEING DEFINED AS 2 FEET OR MORE MAX STORM TOTALS.
GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE ANALOG COMPARISON AND LAKE PARAMETERS...
EXPECT HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE FROM THE DISTANT BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS AT 12Z MONDAY STEADILY SOUTH THROUGH SKI COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN TIER ON MONDAY. THE MOTION OF THE BAND WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...BUT 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME TOTALS OF 8-12 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
COLD AIR WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO DEEPEN...WITH LITTLE OR NO
LAKE EFFECT THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY LAKE INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY IMPROVES WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO 10K FEET. EXPECT
A DISORGANIZED BAND TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
WATERTOWN...WITH UPSLOPE BEGINNING ON THE NORTHERN TUG HILL AS WELL.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN
TO MIX IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER ABOUT 3 AM. WITH THE
LATER START AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS...ACCUMS SHOULD BE HELD TO ONLY 1-3 INCHES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
ON MONDAY THINGS SHOULD REALLY CRANK OF ONTARIO WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES RISING TO 300J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 10K FEET.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DYNAMIC UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO
LAKE HURON WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES ALIGNED DUE WESTERLY...WITH IDEAL UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. A LOOK AT OUR LAKE EFFECT COMPOSITE ANALOG CHARTS SHOWS THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THIS EVENT MATCHING UP VERY CLOSELY TO THE
ANALOG FOR A MAJOR TUG HILL EVENT...WITH MAJOR BEING DEFINED AS 3
FEET OR MORE MAX STORM TOTALS.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO INTENSIFY OVER WATERTOWN
AND POINTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...THEN SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALSO BE OCCURRING ON THE TUG HILL EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN BAND GETS
THERE. EXPECT 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN PERSISTENT
BANDS MAY GET 8-12 INCHES DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH 1-2 FEET ON
THE TUG HILL DURING MONDAY.
WINDS...
MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BACKED OFF BY ABOUT
10 KNOTS ON WINDS ALOFT...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. STILL...IT IS A VERY FAVORABLE STORM
TRACK JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH FUNNELING DOWN THE LENGTH OF
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE FROM THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEAR
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO JEFFERSON COUNTY LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECT A FEW
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN...ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN.
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...
THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...LEADING TO NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND VERY DIFFICULT OR EVEN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
THE COLD CORE ALOFT OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM LAKE ERIE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN TRADITIONAL AREAS...BOSTON HILLS...CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WESTERN
WYOMING COUNTY...TAPERING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY TOWARD OLEAN...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EASTWARD
ACROSS ALLEGANY COUNTY. HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OVERNIGHT...WITH 1-6 INCHES ARCHING AROUND
THE MAIN BAND FROM THE SOUTHTOWNS TO ARCADE...BELMONT AND BOLIVAR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG WITH BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK.
ON TUESDAY...AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED OFF LAKE
ERIE...PRIMARILY CHAUTAUQUA...EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE...AND NORTHWEST
CATTARAUGUS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST WYOMING COUNTIES.
MEDIA - IF THERE ARE ROAD CLOSURES...STRANDED TRAVELERS WILL BE IN
DANGER OF FROSTBITE OR HYPOTHERMIA IF THEY LEAVE THEIR VEHICLES
MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE URGE TRAVELERS TO STAY PUT...TAKE EXTRA
CLOTHING...BLANKETS...FOOD...AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SURVIVAL SUPPLIES.
FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AS ALWAYS...THIS IS A MORE TRICKY FORECAST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION AT SOME
POINT...POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY...MIGRATING
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY EASTWARD AND SLOWING OVER MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY. WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MONROE TO
NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER
NIAGARA AND ORLEANS...LEAVING LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN
ERIE GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...FOR NOW...WITH LOWEST
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS FOR BUFFALO EAST TO NORTHERN LIVINGSTON
COUNTY. OSWEGO IS ALREADY UNDER A WARNING...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED AS THE BAND MOVES OFF THE TUG HILL AND FOCUSES SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE.
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE ONGOING MAIN LAKE BAND OVER THE TUG HILL EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION FOR SNOW TOTALS MAXING OUT OVER OSWEGO COUNTY AND NEARBY
TUG HILL. CURRENTLY EXPECT 6-12 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 4-8 FROM
MOST OF MONROE TO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND LESS ELSEWHERE. BLOWING SNOW
MAY STILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE GRIDDED OUTPUT AT THIS TIME.
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER WAYNE TO OSWEGO TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 6+ INCHES THERE...WITH 3-6 INCHES OVER
MONROE...ONTARIO...AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE NEARING -20-25F EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...POSSIBLY
COLDER IF ANY CLEARING IS REALIZED. CURRENT FORECASTS PLACE THIS
AREA WELL WITHIN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL SAVE THAT
FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES AND HANDLE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE OF
WIND AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FIRST.
AREAWIDE...SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY BY TUESDAY...AND HIGH SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE MAKE SOME HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT LOCALLY IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE ABOVE FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE NEAR-TERM AND SHORT TERM
SECTIONS SHOULD BE REASONABLE ESTIMATES. STORM TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY ARE NOT CONSERVATIVE...WITH POINT-BASED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2+ FEET SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER 3 FEET
CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL. THESE AMOUNTS MATCH WITH HISTORICALLY BIG
LAKE EFFECT EVENTS RESULTING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL
FORECASTS AND HPC. THE MODELS DO HAVE LOWER OMEGA THAN TYPICAL FOR
THESE EVENTS AND HENCE LOWER QPF. WHILE NOT PUSHING THE ENVELOPE
TOO MUCH...WE ARE FORECASTING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE. PUBLICLY
AVAILABLE HPC OUTPUT MAY BE TOO COARSE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT NATURE OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ARCTIC AIR
AND AND INVERSION NEARING 2500FT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EASILY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY QUITE
A BIT COLDER IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK. TEMPS
AGAIN SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
ITS PREDECESSOR. HOWEVER...IT MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
RE-ENERGIZE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MOVING IN ELSEWHERE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE.