2012/2013 Denver Winter weather!

[denversnowlover]

What are you thinking about the 21Z RAP? I am looking at Iowa State Meteogram and looking at KAPA. It was showing 5 inches and now its showing 8.5, too bullish??

[SCMedic]

Link or post a screen shot. Haven't looked. I say any trend up this close is a good one.

[denversnowlover]

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... n&ratio=30


Here you go!

[denversnowlover]

Let me know that you are able to access it and what you think!
Thank you

[PTPatrick]

Had 3 inches on Thursday morning. I had a feeling last night was going to dud. They said it would be snowing in the evening and it barely started flirting around 9. Radar just wasn't impressive. Downtown was in a dry slot...just picked up an extra dusting last night.

[SCMedic]

4" each night here give or take a 1/2".

[VoodooCadillac]

A bit tardy on my Fort Collins report - we received 3" of fluffy stuff Thursday night.

Season to date - 4"

[denversnowlover]

So the Iowa State Meteogram is showing 7 inches on the GFS at a 30:1 ratio...

Here is the link and what is everyone thinking?

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... on&mean=on

[VoodooCadillac]

1" of a wet, sloppy, mix of snow, sleet, ice pellets, etc......

STD = 5"

[zephyr99]

You'd be busier posting with a 2012/2013 Denver Drought Page. There is no winter in Denver anymore!

[PTPatrick]

Yeah it's pretty sad. Gonna be close to 70 tomorrow in Denver. But you just never know. I've learned not to call winter here too soon, but the overall trend of a dry year in Colorado continues. Ski resorts are starting off bad again. Denver did ok in October. But November has been very dry and supposed to be one of our snowier months. Current long range shows no precip in the area for 2 weeks. We shall see. My first winter in Colorado in 2006 started out like this (decent october snows, warm dry November and early December)...then bam, blizzard after blizzard for the next 8 weeks. That was also an el niño, although it looks like this is going to be a marginal el niño. Incidentally that wasn't a great year for the mountains but Denver got dumped on...point is, its just hard to know and November really doesn't seem to hold any predictive value for the rest of winter.

[Palmer divide shadow]

Keep an eye on early next week.models are showing very cold air moving south next week with a possible low pressure system tracking across northern new mexico.

[zephyr99]

Climate outlook and summary for central US just released.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bou/show ... ral_US.pdf

Looks like ENSO neutral conditions with the El Nino watch cancelled. Looks like a mild winter for the central rockies.

[zephyr99]

Doesn't look like that very cold air and storm are gonn pan out on Sunday/Monday. Past that it looks very dry and mild for a couple more weeks. Getting scary. Are the wildfires gonna start in December this year?

[Dencolo]

Agreed. While slow starts aren't always reflective of season totals, keep in mind that Nov is typically the second snowiest month after March. And it looks dry through the end of Nov now. Considering people this year are holding out ski bookings until they see some snow, it might be tough for the resorts as well as there are no storms in sight for the next 10 days.

[PTPatrick]

And the beat goes on....another 70 degree December day another dollar. This is starting to get ridiculous. I know things can still change. Its funny, this weather so far from mid November has been a lot like like back home on the MS coast...days in the 60s with nights in the 30s. Its hard to believe we r in December and we are still having many nights above freezing. Average low is mid teens. Anyway...long range pattern looks a "little"better. GFS is showing a pattern change and good storm around the 10th and anonther in about 2 weeks. Its all far off but until now gfs has shown bone dryness for its 2 week period here. So I will take what I can get.

[denversnowlover]

So what are you all thinking?? I am thinking we could have pretty good accumulations 4-6?? Using the snow to water ratio chart. 20-30 inches per inch

[PTPatrick]

Hate to say it but I'm thinking little or none. Nam has never been impressed with this storm...showing nothing east of the divide. Latest GfS, continuing its waffling but but overall trend is downward with it. It was very wrong with today's shortwave as recent as overnight last night. so I'm kinda hugging NAM fo now, not getting my hopes up. And the news gets worse. GFS long range (its all i got) showing little to nothing east of the divide dang near though christmas. This is shaping up to be a really crappy winter

[PTPatrick]

Well the models seems to have settled on tonight being a non-event for the metro area. Id be more surprised if we woke up tomorrow to 2 inches than I would nothing. Anyway long range gfs doesn't look any more promising. At least when I head south for christmas in 2 weeks I won't be bummed about leaving my wonderful cold snowy colorado weather. This winter officially sucks...but I'm glad the mountains are at least getting something this weekend.

[PTPatrick]

Dang this is a quiet Thread now. I guess it's because Denver doesnt have winter anymore. Anyway, so, next 2 weeks still looking dry on gfs. If this keeps up december will crack top 10 least snowy. I looked at some numbers and there is small reason for hope. Many of the years where november and december both featured trace to 2 inches of snow still managed to look "normal" for the rest of the winter. Climate change not withstanding, we've been stuck in this droughty pattern since march, so it does have to break at some point. It could hang all winter, and I'm not saying we will come close to average. But January could still be rough if it does break.