New England Winter 2012-2013

[cycloneye]

Things still are uncertain in respect to next week's nor'easter.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EST THU DEC 13 2012

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES SLIDE FROM
THE PAC INTO THE WESTERN US AND THEN EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MEAN NORTHERN US LONGWAVE
TROUGH. WITHIN THIS MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
COASTAL STORM FOR THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD...WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP...STRONG WINDS...AND COASTAL
FLOODING.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST OF THESE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. A RESULTANT WEAK WAA PATTERN WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE REGION STARTING SAT
NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
ONLY SLOWLY RECEDING INTO SE CANADA. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A START AS SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTERIOR CT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF INTERVENING FZRA TRANSITION. AT THE
COAST...THERMAL PROFILE LOOK TOO WARM FOR MORE THAN A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE CITY/COAST.

ENHANCEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PIVOT INTO THE NE...AND A
WEAK WAVE/S DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. BY THIS
POINT PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY IN LIQUID FORM...BUT EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PREDICATE IF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP MAY MIX BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.
EVEN IF PRECIP STAY LIQUID...WITH CAD PATTERN...TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN SAT NIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

IT IS FROM THIS POINT ON THOUGH THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD ON HOW BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE IN
RESPONSE TO THE PAC ENERGY. MODELS ARE SIGNALING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR PHASING OF SOME OF THIS ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT TO THE EAST COAST AND
INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS QUITE OF BIT OF SPREAD
IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS OCCURRENCE...WHICH IS TRANSLATING TO
TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES FOR A POTENTIAL INTENSE MID-WEEK
COASTAL STORM. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN/WINTRY
PRECIP...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS IF THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH ANY OF THESE HAZARDS BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL
SPREAD...BUT MONITOR SUBSEQUENT NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
ON THE SITUATION.

[StormingB81]

Cycloneye, question so when I look at that map that you posted yesterday how can I tell if it is going to be a snow or rain event or mixed....thank you

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, question so when I look at that map that you posted yesterday how can I tell if it is going to be a snow or rain event or mixed....thank you

The blue line shows the below freezing temperatures and that is one to watch to see if it snows or not.

[StormingB81]

so right now we are still in the snow area?

[cycloneye]

so right now we are still in the snow area?

From the 24th thru the 27th most of NC is below the freezzing mark.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cycloneye]

The 12z Euro contnues to show a strong nor'easter moving close to the coast by the 19th thru the 20th that differs with GFS that has a weaker and more away from coast system.

19th:



20th:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 PM EST THU DEC 13 2012

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS FROM A COASTAL STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
BEING THE CASE...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AND THE LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE FACT THAT THE WAVE
PACKETS OR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM
STILL RESIDE OVER THE PAC. THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PHASING OF
THIS ENERGY WILL BE KEY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROF OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON MON AND THE RESULTANT NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO SPARE THE REGION A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM. IN ADDITION...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT THIS TIME
ALSO SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH PERHAPS PERIODS OF WINTRY
WEATHER INLAND. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC WITH
ANY DETAILS...BUT RATHER TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL AND MONITOR
FUTURE UPDATES.

PRIOR TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE DESERT SW ON FRI NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT
NIGHT AND THEN UP INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR DAMMING SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. PCPN LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. BY THE TIME SUN ROLLS AROUND...THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR ERODES ENOUGH TO ALLOW A TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN
INLAND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT INTO MON...PASSING TO THE EAST MON
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN.

THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEHIND THE INITIAL LOW
BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER COASTAL STORM.
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA
COAST TUE NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS OFFSHORE UNDERGOING RAPID
DEEPENING ON WED. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF
70W. THE 12Z ECMWF TRACKS JUST EAST OF THE 40N...70W BENCHMARK ON
WED...WHILE THE GFS IS A FEW DEGREES FARTHER EAST. THESE TRACKS
PLACE THE TRI-STARE AREA ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM
WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW.

DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EVEN MORE SO DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD PRESENT
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS.

[cycloneye]

Still uncertainty with the big nor'easter for next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
459 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2012

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM UPPER PATTERN BEGINS WITH MEAN TROUGHING DOMINATING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NOTICEABLY MORE AMPLIFIED IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP MEAN LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
COMBINATION OF A DEEP MEAN LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR
ENERGIES TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A WELL ORGANIZED WINTER COASTAL LOW
AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND RESULTANT WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY SUN NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPING ON IT...TRACKING E ON MONDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MON.
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN IN QUESTION...NAM IS MUCH COLDER THAN
GFS/EC...BUT WITH A RETREATING HIGH TO THE N AND OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO...A WINTRY MIX SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...MAINLY INLAND...UNTIL
THE COLUMN WARMS ENOUGH DURING THE DAY SUN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
PLAIN RAIN. RAIN SHOULD THEN GENERALLY DOMINATE AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY UNTIL THE LOW DEPARTS ON MON.

THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEHIND THE INITIAL LOW
BEFORE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM. LARGE SPREAD REMAINS AMONGST THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION AND PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE 14/00Z EC IS NOW MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WHICH HAS
SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST (WITH A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE) THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE EC HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IT TRACKING OUTSIDE OF
THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. THE GEFS ISN`T MUCH HELP IN SUPPORTING
EITHER OF THESE SOLNS AS ITS MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE
MEAN HOWEVER IS CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALTHOUGH SLOWER.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT THIS TIME ALSO SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN
EVENT WITH PERHAPS PERIODS OF WINTRY WEATHER INLAND. DUE TO THE
LARGE DISAGREEMENT...HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
TUE/WED TIMEFRAME AT THIS POINT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE
SPECIFIC WITH ANY DETAILS...BUT RATHER TO BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL AND MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ADD THE WINTRY MIX FOR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AS WELL.

TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST...ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

[cycloneye]

It looks right now that next week nor'easter will not bring enough cold air for snow in NYC but still changes may occur so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2012

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY UNSETTLED...LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MUCH MODEL
VARIABILITY. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN.

THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY...WITH WHAT COULD BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST
IN CASE OF SOME LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE STORM ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD AMONGST THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION AND PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE
THE LOW NOW EITHER CLOSER TO THE COAST OR INLAND...RATHER THAN
PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
OFFER A SOMEWHAT WARMER SOLUTION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS JUST PLAIN RAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL SHIFT THIS STORM
TRACK AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC WITH ANY
DETAILS...BUT RATHER TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL AND MONITOR FUTURE
UPDATES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST...ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest about the nor'ester. It appears that no snow will fall in NYC during the period.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING...STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE PRIMARY LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST S/COLDEST/FASTEST
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST N - INLAND/WARMEST
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF/CMC GLOBAL/GEFS MEAN ARE IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO
FOR TRACK...THOUGH DO HAVE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH.
GIVEN THERE SIMILAR TRACK AND OVERALL STORM EVOLUTION...WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL/GEFS MEAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LEANING TOWARDS TIMING OF THE ECMWF/GEFS MEAN. AS A
RESULT EXPECT THE MAIN LOW TO TRACK RIGHT OVER THE TRI-STATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR
WORK IN BEHIND THE STORM TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY N INTERIOR ZONES
COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...AND
SLIDES TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY THEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
FAST THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS
RIDGE IS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...IN THE FORM OF A CUTOFF LOW
TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. CURRENTLY THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HEAD TO THE NW OF THE CWA...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT/POSSIBLY AN OCCLUSION...CROSSING THE AREA
FRIDAY. FOR NOW APPEARS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX
ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

[BigB0882]

Thanks for following this for me! Snow would be nice but it also can make things difficult so I wont be complaining!

[cycloneye]

Thanks for following this for me! Snow would be nice but it also can make things difficult so I wont be complaining!

No problem my friend! The important thing is for you to have a safe travel in and out of NYC and all goes well in your stay at the big apple including the wedding.

[cycloneye]

BigB0882,this time I posted the whole afternoon discussion as your travel to NYC is nearing and you want to know how things will be that day.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH...THEN EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS
INCREASE...AND TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I BELIEVE COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
OCCUR...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR DRAINING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT HANDLE THIS WELL...ESPECIALLY GFS.
AS SUCH...I UNDERCUT MOS BY A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH SUB FREEZING
INLAND AND 30S TO NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.

EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT. OF COURSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...THIS WILL
BECOME PROBLEMATIC. FOR NOW...I HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY IN NJ...ORANGE AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES IN NEW YORK...AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SRN CT
BEGINNING AT 09Z. EAST/SE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN
COMBO WITH LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

A TRACE TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.
SOME SNOW OR SLEET COULD MIX IN INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 700-800 HPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH AS A WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY...WITH NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY GOES
THROUGH 16Z. THEREAFTER...RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALL LOCATIONS.
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT PER GFS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF UNTIL
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPS DURING THE DAY RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO
AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. 30S AND 40S EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES DEPARTS MONDAY MORNING...AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL HOVER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD...TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES
OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS TRACK NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE THE PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK...BUT A CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE
SOMEWHERE TOWARDS WESTERN NY/PA MONDAY EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OVER THE DELMARVA AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SECONDARY
LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/12Z ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
SEVERAL OF THE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS...BUT A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL NOT FACTOR
IN THE 12Z NAM...AS IT IS AN OUTLIER...TRACKING FASTER AND MORE EAST
THAN THE BLEND. H8 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 8C...KEEPING PRECIP ALL
RAIN...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF LONG ISLAND...THEN PASSES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP. ENOUGH COLD
AIR MAY BE ABLE TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING...BUT THINK PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. PRIMARY LOW SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...BUT MODELS INDICATING YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA THURSDAY NIGHT...
TRACKING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TOO SOON TO CARRY
LIKELY POPS...AS THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE...SO WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH SLOW
TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTION IS
UNCERTAIN EARLY ON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT SHOULD THEN BECOME EASTERLY THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND TIGHTENS UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z- 01Z.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER AND THICKEN INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT KSWF LIKELY TO SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS
SNOW/SLEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NW OF NYC INDUCES A NE FLOW OF COLDER AIR FROM THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING AS RAIN CONTINUES AND LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP...WITH E WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT AT THE NYC METRO AND
COASTAL SITES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER WITH PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KHPN WHICH COULD
SEE PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GUSTY E-SE WINDS POSSIBLE...
SHIFTING W ON TUE.

.WED...VFR. GUSTY NW FLOW.

.THU...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AT LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND CT TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL EARLY TONIGHT. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT FROM THE EAST. THESE
WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG SUNDAY...BUT LIGHTEN QUICKER OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS AS THE FRONT NEARS AND LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT.

SCA UP FOR SUNDAY ANZ355-335. THEN WINDS DIMINISH. FOR THE EASTERN
WATERS...SCA EXTENDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD ABATE...WITH ONLY LINGERING SEAS TO
CONTEND WITH ACROSS ANZ350.

FOLLOWED WAVE WATCH CLOSELY.

SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS ON
MONDAY...THEN AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS...WINDS/SEAS LIKELY TO
BUILD BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH PASSAGE
OF LOW ON TUESDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN. SCA/GALES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH QPF WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE DECREASING OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS WE
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON THURSDAY.

AS SUCH...DEPARTURES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HIGHER OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
DAILY TIDES.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OF A DEPARTURE WILL OCCUR FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR
CSTL FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.

AT THIS TIME...I DO FEEL WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND LOCATIONS COULD
COME CLOSE...POSSIBLY IN NEED OF A CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT. WILL ALLOW
THE LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD
MINOR OVER THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

I DO NOT FORESEE ANY TIDAL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE NY HARBOR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
CTZ005.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ075-
178-179.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ330-340-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-
355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
514 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND DEPART ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DROP DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WAA AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SPARSE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL AS UPSTREAM.
SINCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED BASED ON
TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...HAVE DROPPED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVSY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE VALLEYS...LIKELY
STILL HAVE COLDER AIR TRAPPED SO HAVE REPLACED THE ADVSY WITH AN
SPS ADDRESSING THE LOCALIZED THREAT THROUGH MID MORNING.

WARM FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WITH ITS PARENT LOW BACK OVER
WISCONSIN...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE DRAGGED NORTHWARD AS THE LOW
TRACKS NE. HAVE LOWERED POPS INITIALLY THIS MORNING WITH SCHC TO
LOW CHC THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN INCREASE THEM WITH LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK WITH PLAIN RAIN FALLING AREAWIDE.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM 40 NEAR THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA TO AROUND 50 IN NYC AND WESTERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPS ON IT AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH MON. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION (ALL LIQUID) WILL BE DURING THIS TIME AND
MODELS STILL SIGNALING A FRONTOGENETIC BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...SO HIGHEST QPF MAY BE HIGHER THAN
WHAT IS FORECAST IF THIS DEVELOPS.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MON...A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MON NIGHT. ENERGY FOR THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACNW AND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN...SOME ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW DESPITE THIS. THE TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
MON NIGHT OVER THE MIDWEST/TENNESSEE VALLEY. 00Z/16 GUIDANCE HAS
NOW SHIFTED FROM DEVELOPING A COASTAL LOW TO TRACKING THE PARENT
LOW OVER OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z/16 CMC IS THE ONLY
MODEL CONTINUING WITH THE IDEA OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. NAM IS THE
STRONGEST AND FASTEST AND GFS IS SLOWEST. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
12Z/15 EC AND CMC AS THEY WERE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT.

ANOTHER ALL LIQUID EVENT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E
LATE TUE AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE ABLE TO WORK INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING...BUT THINK
PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE THE COLD AIR MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL
AREA.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. PRIMARY
LOW SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...BUT MODELS
INDICATING YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA
THURSDAY NIGHT... TRACKING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY EVENING...BUT
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION...PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH UPPER TROUGH SLOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...LINGERING
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT COULD TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
A WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.

VARIABLE VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING
PUSH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID MORNING
SO HAVE AMENDED ACCORDINGLY. THIS ALSO DELAYS ONSET OF IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
WELL INTO TONIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN NO LONGER IS EXPECTED AT KSWF SO IT HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE TAF THERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN. GUSTY E-SE WINDS POSSIBLE... SHIFTING W ON TUE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW FLOW.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AT LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT NY
HARBOR BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
TONIGHT...AS A RESULT HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS...AND EXTENDED THE TIMING FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AT SCA LEVELS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EVEN WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS DUE TO A PERSISTENT SE SWELL ON MONDAY...THEN
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA FOR THESE TWO ZONES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ANZ-355...WHILE SEAS UP TO 5 FT ARE FORECAST OVER THE SE PORTION
OF THE ZONE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THE
REQUIRED 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA THERE PAST TONIGHT.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW
DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS NEAR/OVER THE WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE THEN
LIKELY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS...WITH
35-45 KT OF WIND AT 950 HPA. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON
ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SE-S FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE SCA
THRESHOLD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/4-1/2 INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH QPF WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
RETURN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO NYC METRO AND COASTAL
SECTIONS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH...AND AS COLD AIR DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALL ONLY
SLIGHTLY...WITH 35-40 INLAND AND LOWER 40S FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND.

RAIN MAY TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND WESTERN LONG
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER LEAD WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PULL AWAY WELL TO THE
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER INLAND SECTIONS AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF TO SPOTTY
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BUT UPPER LEVEL FORCING
REMAINS WEAK AT BEST. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT WILL BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF STEADY
MODERATE RAIN ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...WITH THE PRIMARY SFC LOW
REMAINING JUST W OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND PASSES JUST SE PER NAM...OR
OVER THE AREA PER ECMWF. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE WELL INLAND MON
EVENING VIA OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...THEN LATER MON NIGHT VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE
CT. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND DOES NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER ATTM. NEARLY
STEADY TEMPS MON EVENING SHOULD RISE LATE MON NIGHT...LIKELY
RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
WINDS COULD ALSO GET QUITE GUSTY IN COASTAL SECTIONS LATE MON
NIGHT IN THESE SAME AREAS VIA ENHANCED MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK PER ECMWF
AND THOSE AREAS GET BRIEFLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE NE AND MOVE INTO OR JUST
OFFSHORE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. STEADY RAIN WILL SLOWLY TAPER
OFF...BUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS. MORNING HIGHS OUT EAST IN THE LOWER 50S SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY...AND TEMPS ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S TUE AFTERNOON...AS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TO THE REAR OF THE SFC LOW...AND NYC METRO COULD SEE
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AS IT TAPERS OFF ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND DEPARTS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND MILD CONDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRES OVER
THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACKS
TOWARDS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW ON FRIDAY...AND PASSES
OVER LONG ISLAND BEFORE DEPARTING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE SUITE OF MODELS...BUT THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 12Z ECMWF
HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT TRACK WHILE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
SLOWER AND A BIT MORE WEST. WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF. HAVE LIKELY POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANCE ON FRIDAY. PRECIP GENERALLY ALL RAIN AS
THERE IS A LACK OF COLD AIR DAMMING...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR ACROSS FAR NW ZONES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF LATE FRIDAY AS LOW DEPARTS...BUT A TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
COULD BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL USHER A MORE
SEASONAL AIR MASS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW 1 KFT FOR THE MOST PART.
THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD (CEILINGS UNDER 1 KFT WITH VSBYS 1 TO 3 NM). VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS EAST 10 KT...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN EXCESS OF 20
KT AT MANY COASTAL TERMINALS. THIS WAS STRONGER THAN I HAD
ANTICIPATED...BUT I STILL BELIEVE THE FREQUENCY AND STRENGTH OF
THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 21-22Z.

WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO E-ENE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SPEEDS
FALL OFF TO UNDER 10 KT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY EASTERN TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER MONDAY MORNING...FROM THE NORTHEAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MONDAY. GUSTY E-SE WINDS
POSSIBLE...SHIFTING W ON TUE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AT LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT
TERMINALS.
.FRI...PRECIP ENDS WITH A RETURN TO VFR. STRONG NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NY HARBOR. MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...WHICH WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY 25-30 KT AND BRIEFLY UP TO 35 KT ON
THE ERN OCEAN WATERS...WHILE WINDS DECREASE OVER THE WRN OCEAN
WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND
AS HIGH AS 7-10 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.

THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...BUT
LINGERING SWELL SHOULD KEEP OCEAN SEAS ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON MON.

SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AND RETURN ON AT LEAST
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING JUST NORTH/AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW...AND A GALE WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS IF FCST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE POSSIBLE GALES INCREASES.

SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY ON THE OCEAN...THE ERN SOUND AND ON
NY HARBOR ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT W AND GUST 25-30 KT. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN...WATERS AS DEPARTING LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...THEN SCA TO GALE
FORCE CONDS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOUT 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH QPF IS FORECAST THROUGH MON. QPF OF AT
LEAST 2/3 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW MON NIGHT-
TUE...WITH LOCAL AMTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE VIA OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WELL NW OF NYC...AND ALSO VIA ENHANCED LIFT/CONVECTION JUST E OF
THE LOW TRACK ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LIKELY WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

[cycloneye]

BigB0882,hopefully your trip to NYC goes well from start to finish.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
542 AM EST MON DEC 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS FROM NEAR
CAPE COD TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS TO OUR NORTH
FRIDAY...DRAGGING ITS OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOW
THEN MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE WESTERN CANADIAN
MARITIMES INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND
IT...NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE...AND NOT A LOT OF LIFT TO HELP SQUEEZE
OUT MORE RAIN...BUT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.
IN SPITE OF A CLOUDY DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS MORE RAIN TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE RAINING OVER MOST
OF THE AREA IF NOT ALL OF IT. RAIN WILL SPREAD GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL THEN RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
STILL BE LIKELY IN MOST SPOTS...THEN JUST A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...SO TURNING BREEZY FOR SOME
AREAS BY LATE. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK/TIMING...THAT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEST
HANDLE WITH A BLEND. USED A NAM/SREF/GFS/ECMWF BLEND TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THURSDAY-SUNDAY.

A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS TO OUR N TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO TAPPER OFF FROM SW TO NE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WEDNESDAY
DRY W/ STRONG LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH 950-850 WINDS FORECAST 30-45 KT WITH LOW LEVEL
MIXING NEAR TO AT DRY ADIABATIC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW APPEARS WINDS WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST THURSDAY. APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS OVER
NW 1/5 OF THE CWA.

A POTENT CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NY/SOUTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY. THIS IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER/FARTHER S ECMWF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER/FARTHER N GFS.

HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR
EASTERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION COULD MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM IS IT SLOWLY MEANDERS FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...ULTIMATELY TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH 850
TEMPERATURES FORECAST DOWN TO -10C BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WNW-NW WINDS. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW
AND LAKE EFFECT TRAJECTORY/SET UP HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...
FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...FORECASTING VALUES A LITTLE OVER 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT - WITH READINGS FORECAST
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FORM THURSDAY-SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/HPC
GUIDANCE...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

&&


.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW THE MOST LIKELY RISK IS MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...HOWEVER A SLOWER AND/OR STRONGER SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL...INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
418 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.

AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN OF SFC NE WINDS TO THE EAST OF A RIDGE AXIS
AND SW WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING TONIGHT.

BASED ON A PERSISTENT NE WIND FLOW...HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED FROM
3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...REMAINING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A 1000 MB LOW PRES SYS OVER WESTERN KY WAS INTENSIFYING AND IDENTIFIED
BY LINES OF INCREASING CONVECTION TO ITS EAST. IT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARD PA...CAUSING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO ADVECT WEST AND NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.

BASED ON NOWCASTING THIS LOW W AND N OF THE AREA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE DECREASED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY RANGING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH
ACROSS LONG ISLAND UP TO 2/3 INCH ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

UNTIL THIS RAIN ARRIVES ACROSS OUR WESTERN SUBURBS AFT 9 PM...CONCERNED
ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. STAY TUNED.

ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS AND ADVECTS EAST...VISIBILITIES SHOULD TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN SURFACE WINDS DECREASE AND THE RE-
FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS SHOW VARIATION ON THE LOW FCST TRACK INCLUDING
TIMING AND INTENSITY...THEY DO AGREE THAT LOW PRES WILL BE MOVING
NE OF THE AREA BY TUE AFTN WITH INCREASING WINDS...REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LIMITS.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPS ARE FCST IN THE LOW-MID 50S...UP TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PERSISTENT STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RESPITE IS
IN STORE AFTER A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AT THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER THICKNESSES ON THURSDAY WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THERMAL PROFILES SHOW DRY ADIABATIC CONDITIONS THROUGH
900 HPA. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUN...SO THINKING THAT GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE...A COUPLE
OF KT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20 KT.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-WEST THEN TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE
AGREEMENT WITH THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD START
AS ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE ACCORDING TO THERMAL PROFILES. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OCCLUDES AND ANOTHER TRIPLE
POINT LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KT AT 900 HPA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY SLOT MOVING IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOW BEING CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REMAINING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP...CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...ALLOWING
WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD ONCE
AGAIN APPROACH 30 KT ON FRIDAY.

GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW THAN THE ECMWF WHICH
DOESN`T PUSH THE LOW INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS COMING MORE IN
LINE WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...AND
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE LOW AND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CREATE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER AHEAD OF THE AREA OF PCPN
OVER WESTERN PA AND THE ON SET OF DARKNESS.

LIGHT RA ARRIVES BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND WILL OCCASIONALLY BE MODERATE
SO THAT VSBY IMPROVES.

IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASS. WNW GUSTS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTN...MOST LIKELY AFTER 18Z.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH WIND FCST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CIG/VIS LOWERING. TOWER SHOULD BE IN THE
STRATUS BY 00Z...BUT SFC VIS/RVR MUCH SLOWER TO FALL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH WIND FCST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CIG/VIS LOWERING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH WIND FCST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CIG/VIS LOWERING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH WIND FCST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CIG/VIS LOWERING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH WIND FCST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CIG/VIS LOWERING. MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH WIND FCST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CIG/VIS LOWERING. MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WLY WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20KTS G 25-30KTS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING N WINDS.
.THURSDAY..MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE...WITH RAIN.
.FRIDAY...RAIN ENDS LATE....BCMG VFR. GUSTY W WINDS 15-20 KTS G
25-30 KTS.
.SATURDAY...VFR. STRONG WNW WINDS 25 KT G 35 KTS. FLURRIES...SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER BECAUSE SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES SYS WILL MOVE NE OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
APPROACH 40 KT ON ALL WATERS...SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE SOUND AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS. WAVES ON THE OCEAN BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT...AND BEGIN COMING
DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE WINDS. BRIEF RESPITE ON
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BRING WINDS BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY OVER 40 KT AND WAVES BUILD TO 10
TO 12 FT ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND THIS COULD PROVIDE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THEY
START TO DIE DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE LOW WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING IN DRIZZLE.

TONIGHT THRU EARLY WED...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE...WEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS NOW FORECAST TO FALL WEST AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1/2 INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND UP TO 2/3 INCH INLAND...MAINLY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BECAUSE WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RANGING FROM 1/2 TO
1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDES...A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH
TIDES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORES FROM BROOKLYN EAST ACROSS COASTAL
NASSAU COUNTY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...24/SEARS
MARINE...GC/JP
HYDROLOGY...GC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GC

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR INDIANA. THIS LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH DEEP RIDGING
TO THE EAST... THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP VERY CLOSE TO
NYC FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NEAR LONG
ISLAND. SOON AFTER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH. THERE
IS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS WARM FRONT AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE NAM IS THE QUICKEST...GFS IN THE MIDDLE AND
THE 12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND
12Z...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP GOING SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN END UP IN THE LOWER 50S ON LONG ISLAND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT SEEMS THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z FRIDAY SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED EARLY IN THE
DAY.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AND TIMING...EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD BY
6Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE CAVEAT HERE
WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS IF ANY CONVECTION WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND WITH A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF IT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A
RUMBLE OR TWO IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TIMING. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
THOUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LOW ROTATES NEAR THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH THAT ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PLAIN
SNOW IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

NEXT ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE WIND. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOWING A
STRONG 925MB JET RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GFS IS FORECASTING
70-80KTS OVER LONG ISLAND WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING ONLY ABOUT
50-60KTS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AT 12Z. WITH THE EVIDENT TIMING
AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WIND ADVISORY
STRENGTH GUSTS IN THE FORECAST AND WENT WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE
AMOUNT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ABOUT 35-40MPH WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS TREND MUST CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. ANOTHER CAVEAT
AGAIN IS WITH CONVECTION. IF ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AT THE
SAME TIME OF THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS...SOME OF THIS MAY GET
MIXED DOWN PROVIDING HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STAY CUT OFF AND
ROTATE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY KEEPING IT DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...LOWER TO UPPER 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EAST
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST. WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. GUSTS 20-25 KT WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT. GUSTS COULD
BE HAS HIGH AS 30 KT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF 3-5 HOUR WINDOW
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHERE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AND DIMINISH A
BIT...HOWEVER BY 13Z WEDNESDAY...WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
FOR A TOTAL OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
STORM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

[BigB0882]

We made it safely! Ran into a little rain and even a clap of thunder around 3 but other than that just a gloomy day. Thanks for all the updates!

[cycloneye]

We made it safely! Ran into a little rain and even a clap of thunder around 3 but other than that just a gloomy day. Thanks for all the updates!

Good to know that the flight went good. I will keep you informed until the 23rd when you fly again.