Ohio Valley and Eastern KY Winter 2013-2014

[brunota2003]

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOOK AT THE NAM WOULD INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN. IN THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME DEEP VALLEYS STAY DECOUPLED AND HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHEN THE RAIN STARTS OR THAT THERE IS ENOUGH DRY BULBING TO DROP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WAIT TO SEE THE GLOBAL MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY CHANGES TO MONDAY NIGHT.

[brunota2003]

Hopefully not another 2009-like ice storm.

Don't even go there.

I got hit twice in two years with that. Second time I was in the dark for 11 days.

Freezing rain is nasty stuff! I doubt it would be that bad (we have trees that are growing sideways due to all the ice from that storm bending them over). However, even if it is only a couple hours worth, if it rains hard enough it could be very nasty. Everything will already be cold from this recent cold snap, so the ice build up would start right away. The damage may not be widespread, though...if most of the areas can warm above freezing, and only the deep valleys stay below freezing for a period, like they think might happen.

[WeatherGuesser]

Odd thing is, I'm not really seeing much talk of a warmup until next Saturday.

A couple of cold nights isn't unusual this time of year, but a string of several days barely in the 30s is.

[brunota2003]

I know JKL has already set or tied a couple of snowfall records. They tied yesterday's daily record (a trace of snow). This winter has definitely started out interesting! Texas just got buried in ice and snow, and it is November!

[WeatherGuesser]

I seem to be on the line between 1/2"+ of ice and 5" of snow. How much of either or both remains to be seen.

Interestingly, this is the 11 year anniversary of another major snow event:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/storm/Dec402/winterstm.php


Like I've said before, I'll gladly take 10" of snow instead of an inch of ice.

[tolakram]

Euro had us at 8+ inches over a week ago, and here we are with the latest GFS run dumping 6" on us and even more north of here. I really hope we stay out of most of the ice but it's going to be a close call tomorrow.

[WeatherGuesser]

And so it begins.

Rain and 34

First round shouldn't be too bad as far as I can tell, but they're showing that the second round Sunday/Monday might be a problem.

[WeatherGuesser]

Seems to be mostly sleet at the moment. I can handle that since I have no reason to even try to drive.

Anything that doesn't weigh down trees and wires is OK.

[tolakram]

We have maybe 1/10 inch ice, not too bad. Turned to sleet in the last hour, expecting snow, 4-7 inches, starting around 1pm.

[WeatherGuesser]

Yeah, but have you looked at the 3-4 day forecast?

[tolakram]

Cold. Not too sure if we get anymore on Sunday.

We transitioned back to moderate freezing rain. This needs to end!

[WeatherGuesser]

3-4 days out, they seem to be increasing our chances of power loss for some reason.

No thawing between now and then, plus whatever is coming and any winds could start bringing trees down I guess.

[tolakram]

After Sunday we are clear up here out past Thursday.

[WeatherGuesser]

Switched over to snow here a while back. Coming down pretty heavy for the moment.

[WeatherGuesser]

Feeling a little less stressed now. Latest update on this chart takes much of the ice off of us. May still be some outages, but not as concerned as the last chart that had us in the red, near the pink.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=ice_impact_index

[tolakram]

Winding down now, changed back to snow fairly quickly but probably kept our snow totals down a couple of inches. Just over 5 inches total.

[WeatherGuesser]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1259 AM CST SAT DEC 07 2013

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT PADUCAH KENTUCKY FOR
DECEMBER 6TH...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 4.8 INCHES WAS SET AT PADUCAH KY ON DECEMBER
6, 2013. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.8 SET IN 1950.


Big relief now as the latest Ice Impact Chart drops us out of the risk of power loss entirely.

[tolakram]

CVG Snowfall Data:

For yesterday's storm: 5.3" which broke a record from 1977 of 3.6".
Month to Date: 5.3" Normal: 0.6" Departure: +4.7"
Total Snowfall for the Winter: 7.7" Normal: 1.4" Departure: +6.3"

[brunota2003]

We recorded 2.8 inches of rain here at the house Thursday and Friday. Several mud slides/debris flows took place, along with minor flooding and flooding of low lying areas around the region.

This next system tonight and into tomorrow is supposed to drop 1 to 2 inches of snow/sleet, and up to 0.1 inch of ice. Then, by early afternoon, it should have all transitioned to just a cold rain, with temps warming into the mid 30s. The HRRR was showing us receiving 0.25 inches of precipitation by 1 pm, and almost all of it was freezing rain...so we'll see what exactly happens.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'd like to think we're getting the season's nasties early and that January and February won't be so bad.


I'd like to think I'll win this week's lottery too.