Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

The past few Novembers have been cold with precip, I say we continue that trend. I-20 north.

I also think we get a December cutoff low early, cold ULL mischief that robs DFW and Austin of moisture but gives Houstonians early season wet fluff magic. Austin will get some model foot storms but ends up with freezing drizzle with schools and business closing as result, as it is the frzng drzl capital of Texas most likely in early and late January.

[Ralph's Weather]

For the Panhandle I would expect snow by Thanksgiving and for North Texas a January or later start though a surprise around Thanksgiving is possible.

[Big O]

Larry Cosgrove (in his latest extended range Weather America newsletter) hinted that November would have transient cold shots, while December may turn out to be mild. However, he states that come the New Year, the following pattern should emerge: -AO/-EPO and +PNA. As he suggests and as most of us know, if the teleconnections indeed verify as he suggests, we should have a very "interesting" (i.e., cold to very cold with precipitation) January-March 2016. I am sure Wxman57 is feverishly looking for some way to dash our hopes.

[Portastorm]

The past few Novembers have been cold with precip, I say we continue that trend. I-20 north.

I also think we get a December cutoff low early, cold ULL mischief that robs DFW and Austin of moisture but gives Houstonians early season wet fluff magic. Austin will get some model foot storms but ends up with freezing drizzle with schools and business closing as result, as it is the frzng drzl capital of Texas most likely in early and late January.

Yes! Yes! What he said!

About the only thing I'm confident in this coming winter is that the Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas (Austin) will see more freezing drizzle. After all that's what we do here.

If we don't end up with several noteworthy winter weather events in Texas by next March, I'll be surprised. Nearly every forecaster nationally who does long range work suggests it'll be a wet and cold to very cold winter here starting in January. So if it doesn't happpen, most everyone will "bust."

[dhweather]

Portastorm, As long as you get snow, I'm good with winter.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, As long as you get snow, I'm good with winter.

Just for that ... I hope it rains every third day in Heath during this much-ballyhooed El Nino winter! May your cup overfloweth, sir.

[Tireman4]

Portastorm, As long as you get snow, I'm good with winter.

Just for that ... I hope it rains every third day in Heath during this much-ballyhooed El Nino winter! May your cup overfloweth, sir.

Please have Champ The Charger ready for take off sir..

[Texas Snowman]

Cleaning out some old e-mails and I came across this. Portastorm, keep the faith this year!!!

"Bill Murray (WxH) (@wxhistorian)
10/30/1993: San Antonio #TXWX saw its earliest snowflakes. #snow #weather"

[CaptinCrunch]

thought I would post this here as well.....

Well I guess it's time for me to toss out the good old Halloween analogy for the Winter 2015/2016. I started this analogy 13 yrs ago after the birth of my youngest Son on Oct 30th. I started looking at Halloween as a focal point in time and then went backwards 10 yrs. I look at the Average monthly temp and average monthly precip as well as the average daily temp of October 31st to gauge the upcoming winter . It was strange to see that how Halloween turned out, translated to How the following Winter went.

So for 13 yrs now I have used the strange but affective analogy, and it's has been surprisingly accurate.

October 2015
[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 71.2 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 9.82
DPTR FM NORMAL: +3.7 DPTR FM NORMAL: +5.60

Halloween
H68 L59 Average 64 +1

So what does the coming Winter look like now? Winter 2015/16 will see much above average precip, but only average Temps +/- a few degrees.

[lrak]

The GFS is showing winter precipitation on Black Friday for central TX?

[Longhornmaniac8]

Come find us in the Fall thread.

[perk]

Come find us in the Fall thread.

Where might that be.

[wxman57]

The GFS is showing winter precipitation on Black Friday for central TX?

No GFS run is showing anything but mixed precip in the panhandle.

[Brent]

Before winter starts...

the historic fall recap:

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm, As long as you get snow, I'm good with winter.

Let me be the first to wish everyone a Merry Christmas!!!

And to let everyone know that there is a....

CAT 5 SNOWCANE IN THE GULF!!!!

[LaBreeze]

Portastorm, As long as you get snow, I'm good with winter.

Let me be the first to wish everyone a Merry Christmas!!!

And to let everyone know that there is a....

CAT 5 SNOWCANE IN THE GULF!!!!

Merry Christmas to you as well, Texas Snowman. That's a good one with the Cat 5!

[Ntxw]

Ah yes, good to be back in the winter thread. Time to wake up the slumber gang. We need snow and we need it now . A new winter season has begun!

501 pages is the mark to beat (2013-2014). Hopefully from snow and cold and not complaints of warmth and dry.

[Brent]

GFS is pretty quiet through 300 hours(maybe a couple light rain events and seasonal temps) and then continues to show hints of at least a bigger rain event followed by much colder air towards mid month but it is a long way out...

On the positive side... despite all this talk of a blowtorch in the rest of the country, the warmest the GFS gets for highs at DFW is only a couple days in the mid 60s. Hardly unusual for December...

Happy winter everyone! Hopefully there is lots of snow for everyone.

[gpsnowman]

Happy December everyone. Bring on the cold and snow!!!!

[KatDaddy]

Deep WSW flow aloft will continue to bring disturbances across SE TX through tonight before decreasing clouds on Wednesday followed by sunny days Thursday through Saturday morning before increasing clouds begin to return followed low rain chances on Sunday.