Texas Winter 2016-2017

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9787
Age: 61
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: South Austin, TX
Contact:

Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:40 pm

Starting this thread because it is never too early to talk Texas winters (or lack thereof). This one will be La Nina. Do we expect yet another blow torch winter? Gawd, I hope not.

La Nina winters though do feature an Arctic Outbreak or two and when they do happen, they're very dramatic. So there's that.

Let the discussion begin ...
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:16 pm

I know some big cold blasts have happened in La Nina.

Examples of cold blasts in La Nina.
January 1886
February 1895
February 1899
January/February 1951
January 1985
February 1985
February 1989
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3 Postby Brent » Fri Jun 10, 2016 1:20 pm

Yall crazy... the days are still getting longer.

:roflmao:

Though it's fun to think about.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5674
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:18 pm

0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#5 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jun 11, 2016 12:17 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I know some big cold blasts have happened in La Nina.

Examples of cold blasts in La Nina.
January 1886
February 1895
February 1899
January/February 1951
January 1985
February 1985
February 1989


You can toss in February 1996, February 2011. Also the frigid November/December of 2000 was weak Nina. That one more memorable for northeast Texas and the ice storms.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#6 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Jun 11, 2016 3:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:I know some big cold blasts have happened in La Nina.

Examples of cold blasts in La Nina.
January 1886
February 1895
February 1899
January/February 1951
January 1985
February 1985
February 1989


You can toss in February 1996, February 2011. Also the frigid November/December of 2000 was weak Nina. That one more memorable for northeast Texas and the ice storms.


I forgot to mention February 1996 and February 2011.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:07 am

February 1996? You mean the month when it warmed up to 100*F or above in places like Austin and San Antonio? :P
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#8 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:42 am

1900hurricane wrote:February 1996? You mean the month when it warmed up to 100*F or above in places like Austin and San Antonio? :P


Yes! Last time DFW was in single digits. First quarter of 1996 was crazy with heat waves and cold blasts. Talk about extremes.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9787
Age: 61
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: South Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#9 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jun 13, 2016 2:38 pm

February 1996 was an amazing month of extremes here in Austin as well. That month we had two wintry weather events (one snow and one mixed precip), a low of 19 degrees and a high of 101 degrees. Crazy!
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#10 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:01 pm

I'm seeing signs the La Nina will likely be a weak to low end moderate. First year Nina's usually delivers something. This bodes well for us along with the +PDO. We may not see the copious precip events but I think the cold blasts will be there. I'd take this over a strong El Nino.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6011
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#11 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jun 20, 2016 2:13 pm

And here we go, the summer solstice is at hand. Let the countdown to the winter solstice begin!

:sun: :rarrow: :froze:

-----

@NWSHouston -- The summer solstice is this afternoon at 534 PM CDT. Daylight hours will total a 14 hrs, 3 min and 32 sec. #houwx
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8557
Age: 56
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#12 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:08 pm

Happy August Winter lovers, this is typically the hottest month of the year here in DFW, but let's do take a peek at what could and should be a more typical Texas winter. Last seasons SUPER El Nino pretty much blew 90% of the Winter outlooks to shreds, I mean it freaking sucked if you were expecting a cold snowy winter. Seriously though, it was hard to forecast a Winter with a event such as Super El Nino seeing as they are only a once in 50 year event. Now as we are expecting a La Nina event the question is what type of La Nina will we get? I don't think it will reach a strong category so a weak to moderate La Nina event is expected.

Typically we see a warmer winter due to less clouds and less of a chance of precip, but there have been some La Nina's that have proven to be some what on the cold side, but yet still dry. I don't see the extremely warm winter of last year happing again for 2016/2017, as a matter of fact I think this winter compared to last will be far colder, but still the average Texas winter were snow/ice chances are about normal.

So until I return in October for the festive Halloween fun, have a happy and HOT end of summer. :sun:

Oh yeah, "Are you ready for some Football? NFL 2016/2017 season kicks off this weekend with the HOF game, Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts :ggreen:
1 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5674
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#13 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:56 pm

So until I return in October for the festive Halloween fun, have a happy and HOT end of summer. :sun:

I was wondering why you were posting..you are a Halloween forecaster....LOL
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#14 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:08 pm

It's quite possible we may not even get La Nina. It could hold onto cold neutral.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3307
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#15 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:42 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... y_z500.png

The November analog looks interesting....
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1735
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#16 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:06 pm

Firsthand Weather has released their early winter forecast. Figured I would share. Any thoughts?
http://firsthandweather.com/2105/early- ... -forecast/
1 likes   
#neversummer

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2703
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#17 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Aug 07, 2016 6:50 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Firsthand Weather has released their early winter forecast. Figured I would share. Any thoughts?
http://firsthandweather.com/2105/early- ... -forecast/

I am digging it. The map looks good. Early on but he might be on to something similar to some previous posts in the forum. La nina can bring the goods albeit sporadically.
0 likes   

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1735
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#18 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Aug 07, 2016 7:35 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Firsthand Weather has released their early winter forecast. Figured I would share. Any thoughts?
http://firsthandweather.com/2105/early- ... -forecast/

I am digging it. The map looks good. Early on but he might be on to something similar to some previous posts in the forum. La nina can bring the goods albeit sporadically.

I agree. I the map does look good. Let's just hope it verifies.
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#19 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 07, 2016 11:24 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Firsthand Weather has released their early winter forecast. Figured I would share. Any thoughts?
http://firsthandweather.com/2105/early- ... -forecast/


Oh yes please. I am still not over the trash pile that was last "winter"...
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9787
Age: 61
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: South Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#20 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 08, 2016 8:55 am

As far as my area of the state is concerned, the last TWO winters have been dumpster fires. One has to believe that this next one will offer more than the last two clunkers.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 53 guests