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Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
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- weathaguyry
- Category 5
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- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well it is not winter weather that I have come to talk about, but it is an impending nor' easter, there is a hurricane force wind warning for the south shore of Long Island, there is a costal flood watch for tides 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 feet above normal, this is a very serious issue, we have to see what plays out, not to mention if you take a look at the Nam 3&4km, there is a good 5 inches of snow expected for Long Island, which seems crazy, but I question why it doesn't drop the snow amounts to match the other models ![Double :double:](./images/smilies/doublevision.gif)
![Double :double:](./images/smilies/doublevision.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
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- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, the Nor' Easter left some pretty wicked tides on the south shore of long island, but other than that, nothing much, nobody lost power, Next Monday/Tuesday there appears to be some little system that may shoot through, dumping a little bit of snow, which would be nice to look at, I'm not sure the last time it was this warm at the end of January, but it appears that this warm blast has come to an end, and we will at least get back to seasonal temperatures starting tomorrow!!! ![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
It appears that the weather will play out as followed:
Monday AM: Quick shot of snow for South NJ/Delmarva, no more than a coating to an inch
Tuesday: Snow showers become more widespread across the area, leaving no more than a coating to an inch (Could potentially make some slick roads)
Thursday: Lingering snow flurries, A coating in some areas IF that
Next Sunday PM/Monday AM: Snow from a larger system starts to move in, which models predict could be a potentially long period of light snow (I would venture a guess of 2-4" for the whole system, NOTHING MAJOR)
Next Tuesday and beyond: C'Mon, now were talking ultra fantasy range![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
Monday AM: Quick shot of snow for South NJ/Delmarva, no more than a coating to an inch
Tuesday: Snow showers become more widespread across the area, leaving no more than a coating to an inch (Could potentially make some slick roads)
Thursday: Lingering snow flurries, A coating in some areas IF that
Next Sunday PM/Monday AM: Snow from a larger system starts to move in, which models predict could be a potentially long period of light snow (I would venture a guess of 2-4" for the whole system, NOTHING MAJOR)
Next Tuesday and beyond: C'Mon, now were talking ultra fantasy range
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
The clipper that went through yesterday was very uneventful, but could potentially make for a better system tomorrow, as long as this low moves out of the darn way, a fairly nice warm front could set up and give up a 10AM to 8PM snow event, 1-3 inches for long island and points north seem reasonable, with a coating to an inch down to I-195 in NJ.
![Image](http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png)
![Image](http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png)
![Image](http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/snow01312017-1.jpg)
(Shout out to meteorologist Joe Cioffi, he has a very well laid out array of maps on his website, also he does YouTube videos, so please subscribe to his channel!)
![Image](http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png)
![Image](http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png)
![Image](http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/snow01312017-1.jpg)
(Shout out to meteorologist Joe Cioffi, he has a very well laid out array of maps on his website, also he does YouTube videos, so please subscribe to his channel!)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, Tuesday's system wasn't too bad for a clipper, put down about an inch and a half, obviously it all melted though, I mean its winter, you can't actually expect snow to be on the ground in the beginning of February
This weekend is a bust (of course
), but there could be a freezing rain event on Tuesday, but we shall see, because you can't be sure of anything until it actually happens this winter.
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
![Evil :grr:](./images/smilies/icon_evil.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, the GFS model now puts down about 3 inches of snow for coastal areas of NY and NJ at 96 hours, Goes from 61 Wednesday with clouds to 32 Thursday with 1-3 inches of snow. Jeez this winter has been crazy, the flipping back and forth between models is insane! Watch, the models get rid of it, then the day before they have it back, and there ends up being a blizzard or the opposite too. Good thing Im going on vacation soon, Florida on February 15, I tried to get a tour of the Hurricane Center for the 16th but there are no tours for February ![Evil :grr:](./images/smilies/icon_evil.gif)
![Evil :grr:](./images/smilies/icon_evil.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Grrr, home today sick, with some flu like thing that's been going around
Anyway, it looks like Thursday is setting up to be a significant storm, with the newest GFS having 10 inches of snow for us. I think that there will be travel issues on Thursday morning, and possibly into the afternoon. a general 5-8 inches is what I am expecting, the winds are supposed to be cranking, so I think a Blizzard Watch isn't out of the question later today, if the track stays consistent. Well, i'll update later about the situation, school closings are seemingly likely on Thursday.
![Image](http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/snow02092017.jpg)
![Image](http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png)
![Image](http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png)
![Image](http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020712/gfs_asnow_neus_13.png)
Thank you Joe Cioffi for the maps!!!!!!! Please subscribe to his youtube channel for a forecast discussion every day, and sometimes twice a day!!!
![Evil :grr:](./images/smilies/icon_evil.gif)
![Image](http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/snow02092017.jpg)
![Image](http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png)
![Image](http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png)
![Image](http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020712/gfs_asnow_neus_13.png)
Thank you Joe Cioffi for the maps!!!!!!! Please subscribe to his youtube channel for a forecast discussion every day, and sometimes twice a day!!!
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, a Winter Storm Watch was issued, with the mention of "near blizzard conditions near the coast" So that tells me maybe there will be a Bizzard Warning Issued for Long Island and Cape Cod tomorrow. Official numbers are 6-10 inches, likely will be terrible Thursday Morning commute! Stay safe everybody!
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Keep us updated. Finally looks like a decent hit for somebody up there this winter.
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- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, a Blizzard Warning was issued for Cape Cod, maybe they will issue one on Long Island. 12z models are a little more bullish, with about a foot for LI and NYC. Tomorrow is going to be a terrible day. On the other hand I am sitting on my patio right now with temperature readings in the mid 60's I have on shorts, a t-shirt, and flip flops, the sun feels beautiful! (I know, people down south would make fun of me, based on their winter they'd be bundled up for a high of 64 at this point
)
![Razz :P](./images/smilies/icon_razz.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, there was 10 inches of snow here on Western Long Island, there was a heavy band of snow that was moving through, which is still sort of over us, but there is no significant additional accumulation expected for us throughout today, That was a pretty good storm, it cancelled schools, and we got a blizzard warning, the first of the year ![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, recap of last weeks storm, School closed on Thursday, delay on Friday (Obviously we are the town in our county with the most hills, yet we still are 1 of 7 schools in the county open that day
) I spent the weekend in Vermont, which got absolutely pummeled with snow, but the ski conditions were great. I missed most of the storm on Sunday, heard it was freezing rain up until 1PM on Long Island, Upstate Interstate 87 was snow covered, and it took us 7 hours to get home (a normally 4 hour drive) I am going to Florida on Wednesday Night, to escape the weather! (Not trying to make anyone jealous)
![Evil :grr:](./images/smilies/icon_evil.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, They say that March comes in like a lion and they are not kidding!!!! Highs not making it out of the 20's tomorrow with a low in the low-mid teens! You could maybe expect this as a cold day in mid January, but this is pretty crazy for March (Not to mention it may go back up to 60 next Tuesday!) Overall, I tend to think that the whole "March Goes out Like a Lamb" thing is crap, my whole life I have always sat at the end of march, in a coat while the temperature is in the 40's, thinking "Where's the Lamb!?!?" Oh well, I guess that only applies for points south of Washington D.C. ![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Well, unexpectedly, winter has decided to come back and make a hurrah, although I think almost everyone around here just wants spring to come, we have the shot of some snow on Friday and Possibly Sunday, Originally, the GFS was showing near a foot of snow here, but that has backed off, and now it shows near a foot near Washington D.C, the model keeps shifting south, but I know it has to stop soon, whats next? A foot for Jacksonville, FL?
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
weathaguyry wrote:Well, unexpectedly, winter has decided to come back and make a hurrah, although I think almost everyone around here just wants spring to come, we have the shot of some snow on Friday and Possibly Sunday, Originally, the GFS was showing near a foot of snow here, but that has backed off, and now it shows near a foot near Washington D.C, the model keeps shifting south, but I know it has to stop soon, whats next? A foot for Jacksonville, FL?
LOL.. we won't see none of that white stuff here, but could see some within 5 hour drive from here on Sunday lol.. But, we will see a cool down here by early next week. However, they could see snow as far south as Charlotte, NC by this Sunday as a late season winter storm organizes just off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Potential One Last Winter Blast
GFS and CMC have a Nor'Easter packing quite a punch to my area (NJ) on Tuesday. Keep an eye out for this one.
GFS and CMC have a Nor'Easter packing quite a punch to my area (NJ) on Tuesday. Keep an eye out for this one.
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Did a trend .gif with the last 12 GFS runs, and they all have from 9 to 16" falling over the I-95 Corridor
This is going to be fun! To think I almost but the snow blower away...![froze :froze:](./images/smilies/froze.gif)
This is going to be fun! To think I almost but the snow blower away...
![froze :froze:](./images/smilies/froze.gif)
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
404 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017
NJZ001-007>010-015-017>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-120915-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
404 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Accumulating snow is possible Monday night into Tuesday night. There
is still considerable uncertainty with details, including exact
snow amounts, but there could be major impacts to travel especially
during the day Tuesday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
404 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017
NJZ001-007>010-015-017>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-120915-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
404 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Accumulating snow is possible Monday night into Tuesday night. There
is still considerable uncertainty with details, including exact
snow amounts, but there could be major impacts to travel especially
during the day Tuesday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139138
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017
Just when I thought winter was over, this storm decides to come and this thread becomes one of the busiest threads on the site! I will be monitoring the storm from Long Island, I would venture a guess of 12-16 inches for right now around the NYC area, I think the question now is when will blizzard watches go up?
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
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