Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Previous Thread: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=116168
With the forecast prolonged cold, will there be a new run at the record?
Current is 29.5%
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea ... ea_cur.png
With the forecast prolonged cold, will there be a new run at the record?
Current is 29.5%
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea ... ea_cur.png
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
As Michigan endures a deep freeze, with wind chills hitting double digits below zero this morning, our Great Lakes are facing an abnormal rate of ice coverage just several days into the new year.
Try these numbers on for size: The Great Lakes are already 21.99% covered in ice as of Jan. 4, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Great Lakes Coast Watch. On that day in 2017, they were 3.11% covered. On that day in 2016, they were 1.12% covered.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/ ... 006773001/
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Saved graphic showing 29.5% as of 1/7/18
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Brief warmup (and maybe winds) took a big toll. Down to 17.1% as of 1/12
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Last cold snap brought it back to 29.8%. Long way to go to get anywhere near the record and I sure hold it doesn't stay cold enough anywhere outside the GL region.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
32.1% as of the 1/15 analysis.
Another warmup coming for some areas, but will it affect that region?
Another warmup coming for some areas, but will it affect that region?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Side effects:
http://www.cleveland.com/weather/blog/i ... verag.html
The Midwest's recent cold snap quickly ramped up ice coverage on Lake Erie, an easy feat because of its shallow depth compared to the rest of the Great Lakes. In the beginning of January, Lake Erie was at a mere 20 percent ice cover. Today? Ice spans just under 80 percent of the lake surface. Because of that moisture cut-off, some sun will return to the area.
Lake Erie's ice is also suppressing what would be a widespread snow event Tuesday as a low-pressure system quickly sneaks through the region that night. At most a few flurries will pop up, but if it wasn't for that icy lake, Northeast Ohio could've seen a few inches of snow.
http://www.cleveland.com/weather/blog/i ... verag.html
0 likes
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
WeatherrGuesser wrote:32.1% as of the 1/15 analysis.
Another warmup coming for some areas, but will it affect that region?
Any recent info? 80% ice coverage seems a lot to me. I would have never guessed it.
Last edited by Bolster on Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:47 am, edited 3 times in total.
1 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1652
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Bolster wrote:Any recent info? 80% ice coverage seems a lot to me. I would have never guessed it.
I think it's around 100% now, Lake Erie is relatively easy to freeze. Not so much the other lakes.
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1652
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Coverage has been hanging around 20-21% lately, would be hard to freeze the rest of the 80% in a month or two unless there was a much longer, much more intense version of the December-January cold snap, and with average temps warming in February, it would be extremely difficult if possible.
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
^^ Yeah, not looking that way this year any more. I sure hope it doesn't get that cold for that long.
1 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1652
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
WeatherGuesser wrote:^^ Yeah, not looking that way this year any more. I sure hope it doesn't get that cold for that long.
Much more than recent winters though.
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Not even gonna get close. It hasn't been over 30% yet that I've seen and there isn't an extended cold period in sight. Another week and temperatures will be on the upswing for the season.
That big cold blast was unpleasant, but short-lived overall.
That big cold blast was unpleasant, but short-lived overall.
1 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1652
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
WeatherGuesser wrote:Not even gonna get close. It hasn't been over 30% yet that I've seen and there isn't an extended cold period in sight. Another week and temperatures will be on the upswing for the season.
That big cold blast was unpleasant, but short-lived overall.
Yep. Here, it's supposed to be 20's for a week or so then another warmup. By the end of that, we're already getting into late February, and it's hard to get a good freeze up after that (sure, it got cold last March, but that'll have to happen again to just get near 50% coverage). It did look like it might approach it in early January, but the thaw stunted the ice coverage and the cold is mostly in the northern Plains.
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
I'm beginning to wonder about their methods. It suddenly jumped from 29.1% to 43.2%
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
62.5
Primarily Erie, Huron and Superior
Is it really that much colder across the lakes than areas just south of there? Is the ice making colder water grow more ice regardless of air temperatures??
Primarily Erie, Huron and Superior
Is it really that much colder across the lakes than areas just south of there? Is the ice making colder water grow more ice regardless of air temperatures??
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
64.3
Primarily Huron and Superior advancing.
Primarily Huron and Superior advancing.
0 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1652
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
Especially Superior is in that Midwest freeze so no wonder it's freezing up
Won't hit the record though since Ontario would need to cooperate and the pattern looks warmer
Won't hit the record though since Ontario would need to cooperate and the pattern looks warmer
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?
MARQUETTE — Area residents may have noticed that bitterly cold, snowless days with an unusual amount of sunshine have been a common feature of the past week.
Strangely enough, the root cause of the sunshine and lack of snow is Lake Superior’s increasing ice coverage during the early weeks of February, a result of the recent wave of cold weather.
The sub-normal temperatures of early February have provided a “perfect setup… that’s been (a) big trigger for ice expansion,” said Matt Zika, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Marquette. “If we do have significant ice growth and ice coverage on the lake, it shuts down the lake-effect snow process.”
He explained that increasing ice coverage on the lake is analogous to putting a lid over a pot of boiling water, as the ice cover limits the amount of water evaporating into the atmosphere from the lake.
Less evaporating lake water means less moisture will rise into the air, which decreases the amount and possibility of lake effect snow and cloud cover in the area.
This explains all of the sunshine recently — there has been a dramatic increase in Lake Superior’s ice coverage since January when the ice coverage on the lake rarely exceeded 20 percent according to data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.
On Monday, the average ice coverage on Lake Superior was around 46 percent, which is far over the 25 to 30 percent average for early February, according to GLERL. Most of the ice coverage was concentrated at the shorelines, with average ice thickness across the lake at just over 3 inches and large sections in the eastern portion of the lake with little-to-no ice cover.
By late Friday, over 65 percent of the lake was covered in ice.
http://www.miningjournal.net/news/front ... -splendor/
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 68 guests