harp wrote:^^^^^^^ Yes, I'm in south La., west of New Orleans. This has my attention. It has been showing this solution off and on. Especially the Euro. Keep me posted on your thoughts. Thank you.
Lots of time to watch this Harp . GFS just came onboard with this potential on.its 18Z run late this afternoon.
Arctic High (1045 mb) in 162 hours over Western KY. Cold air over the Deep South and Lower MS River Valley region will likely be sufficiently in place. Remember, arctic air masses are very stable and shallow. Models have in several instances in my memory struggled badly with forecasting arctic airmasses. These extremely cold and shallow air masses can sink farther southward than the models can decipher. They can really bust temperature forecasts big time!
So, always in these situations, there is a decent chance that the temperatures could be colder than what the models are indicating. The 12Z Canadian was indicating potential temperatures in the teens across portions of the Deep South by Wednesday morning of next week. It was the coldest of the models for the region into next week. However, it is possible it could verify.
Also, we will have to see if the shortwave, if it holds up in future runs, will stay suppressed in the GOM or move inland between 162 hr - 198 hr. Moisture that moves inland during this time period could potentially lead to freezing rain event in areas. (warm nose near the coast)
One other potential is to see if we get phasing from this . If that happens we could be looking at quite a winter storm. I don't see that yet. but something that is possible and to monitor in the next several days of model runs.
This also can be gone too on the next run or two also Oh the fun of the models huh?
One thing is certain, it will be significantly colder into next week for the entire region.
I will be watching trends to see just how the models may are handling the arctic air mass next week.