Jag95 wrote:With the inconsistency of the model predictions over 7 days out, I normally wouldn't fall for a 200+ hr forecast. But, the latest runs of the GFS, FV3, Euro, and Canadian all show a very cold pattern for the last week of January. Could this be it? The GFS has a 1060 high parked over Saskatchewan at 240 hrs and even has snow 100 miles out in the Gulf on the 18Z. Jax?
This massive polar air pattern shift is finally underway!! This extremely anomalous pattern most definitely not only has the potential to bring wintry precip to the Southern tier CONUS and Southeast U.S., but potential several opportunities for this to occur over the next few weeks.
The huge challenge is timing these disturbances traversing both along the southern stream jet and the polar jet. This is why with such an extreme pattern like this one, I would not be confident on forecasting anything solidly past 4 or five days. It is a very progressive pattern indeed. However, this is why I love weather. I live for potential extreme events like this during winter and of course tropical cyclone season the other 6 months when that is occuring.
I think there may be an instance or two in which both jets will phase together and possibly organize even a couple major winter storms in the coming weeks.
I took a look at the EURO and Canadian models earlier this afternoon. The 18Z GFS also is beginning to come into agreement with these other models as well with regards to the overall evolution of the large scaled pattern. The huge attention grabber was the 12Z EURO leading the way in showing the Polar Vortex displaced farther south down into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley region by January 26. That is just one model run. I want to wait on consistency to continue from the models on this for at least the next 3 to 4 days. However, it does show the potential of just how serious this cold outbreak could be as we near the end of January. I will be looking to see if ths continues over the next few days with general consensus going out through 200 hours or so from now.
We are potentially looking at some seiously extreme cold anomalies I have not seen in a very long time. The potential arctic pool of air that will be over most of Canada is just brutal. Some of, or even the coldest air on this planet will be likely taking a home over much of North America in the coming weeks, if the reliable global models and ensembles are all correct.
Lots to monitor and analyze in the days to come. Obviously, we have some very interesting potential weather ahead.......