Texas Winter 2020-2021
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- Texas Snowman
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Texas Winter 2020-2021
The 2020 summer solstice? Check.
The Fourth of July? Check.
Starting the Texas Winter 2020-2021 thread during Wxman57’s favorite season? Check.
Will this upcoming winter weather season finally be the one to deliver good amounts of snow, ice and cold to Texas?!?!?
The Fourth of July? Check.
Starting the Texas Winter 2020-2021 thread during Wxman57’s favorite season? Check.
Will this upcoming winter weather season finally be the one to deliver good amounts of snow, ice and cold to Texas?!?!?
7 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
mcheer23 wrote:I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly...
boo
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
mcheer23 wrote:I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly...
Now now now don't you dare!!! Way too early for that kind of talk.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
mcheer23 wrote:I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly...
Why do you say that? I have not analyzed things for the winter yet but I do see a warm NE Pacific so that is a good sign for a cold winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Came here to cool off for a bit, it's nice to see a winter thread so early here on S2K!
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
So the warm pool is still there, maybe even bigger, but paired with a La nina, could make this winter very interesting. The warm pool El nino combo hasnt worked out well for us. In 2013-'14, ENSO was pretty neutral.
Obviously, a million other variables but i do like the potential of this combo.
Obviously, a million other variables but i do like the potential of this combo.
4 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:So the warm pool is still there, maybe even bigger, but paired with a La nina, could make this winter very interesting. The warm pool El nino combo hasnt worked out well for us. In 2013-'14, ENSO was pretty neutral.
Obviously, a million other variables but i do like the potential of this combo.
Warm pool, La Niña, very cool Nino 1/2 ... spells out a cold Holiday season IMO
6 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all.
Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.
To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?
Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.
To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?
5 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Portastorm wrote:First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all.
Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.
To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?
Youre absolutely right. Last couple winters especially predictions have been terrible. Last year especially. Last year, some of us thought it was the perfect combo for winter weather and it was the complete opposite. With that said, climate change is making a bit of an impact. Interesting to see how quickly the ice comes back in the Arctic. Big deal for building large high pressures.
I'm starting to think weak La ninas are much better for us here in Texas. 2017-18 we had three different events here in SE TX.
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Portastorm wrote:First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all.
Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.
To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?
Youre absolutely right. Last couple winters especially predictions have been terrible. Last year especially. Last year, some of us thought it was the perfect combo for winter weather and it was the complete opposite. With that said, climate change is making a bit of an impact. Interesting to see how quickly the ice comes back in the Arctic. Big deal for building large high pressures.
I'm starting to think weak La ninas are much better for us here in Texas. 2017-18 we had three different events here in SE TX.
Weak ninas with the PDO on our side and a warm pool in GOA, are absolutely our best bet. They often deliver the coldest air too.
3 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
I'm with chunking the whole El Nino-La Nina crap in the trash can and just calling it Winter
Last Winter I didn't even burn all of my 1/2 Cord, but it was no loss as it gets used in the smoker!! Either way 2020 is a toss year, just write it off and move on to 2021.
Last Winter I didn't even burn all of my 1/2 Cord, but it was no loss as it gets used in the smoker!! Either way 2020 is a toss year, just write it off and move on to 2021.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Let's hope for a better winter this year. we need a change from the summer heat!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Larry Cosgrove.....who gets it right more than anyone I know, has unfortunately predicted a warm winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Two different almanacs, two different “forecasts”.
https://i.ibb.co/7jDTY9f/03400-C79-4084-4-A58-8011-5360-BBFC5-C2-C.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/PFN6XNj/7-CBE977-B-9-F3-A-4243-8661-D7-A35-DAD082-D.jpg
I will take picture A. Typical La Nina look there. We would get by with mild winter weather and then BOOM a massive cold blast with some precip to remind us it is winter. Some winter days are mild anyway so let's make this one count. Like the map says, temperamental.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
I don't mind warmth in winter I mean it is Texas but there better be a tradeoff
That sounds like most La Nina's
That sounds like most La Nina's
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
I’ve decided I’m fine with a warmer winter. JUST PLEASE give me one good snow storm of 3+ inches and I’m happy. We are long overdue.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
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All opinions independent of employers and the university.
- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Cerlin wrote:I’ve decided I’m fine with a warmer winter. JUST PLEASE give me one good snow storm of 3+ inches and I’m happy. We are long overdue.
I was telling my Austin compadre Haris the other day that I don't mind a Nina winter. Why? They usually have several Arctic outbreak type events for Texas when the jetstream buckles and super cold air comes down from Canada. And there usually is some precip to go with it. Sure, the bulk of the winter is dry and warm and boring ... but those few events provide some nice excitement and wintry fun.
3 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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