Texas Winter 2020-2021

[CaptinCrunch]

Texas is in a Major drought with 98% of the state seeing drought conditions, and for NTX area Severe Drought is taking hold. Also nothing in the forecast over the next 7 days has any measurable rain in it. Next best chance will come late next week but with the current La Nina pattern with the lack of moisture and upper level disturbances we are going to be hard pressed to make a dent around here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Really nice early winter day. Overcast, in the low 40s with a mid 30s windchill.

[Brent]

looks like OKC got screwed by a NW trend big snows more towards Woodward and Enid and a very sharp cutoff SE of that

[Cerlin]

looks like OKC got screwed by a NW trend big snows more towards Woodward and Enid and a very sharp cutoff SE of that

It’s because I went up to Norman yesterday. I think I’m the curse

[rwfromkansas]

A foot of snow in Buffalo, OK. Nice.

[CaptinCrunch]

Looking at average temps and dry for the next 7 days...

"We`ll remain between systems during the first half of next week.
This will mean dry weather and near-normal temperatures with highs
in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s. Ensemble guidance
generally supports a scenario where another deep cutoff low
remains across the western US through Wednesday before ejecting
eastward by the end of the week. This would result in a
strengthened warm/moist advection regime with perhaps some rain
chances returning towards next Friday".

[CaptinCrunch]

November Recap (BORING)

AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP: 60.4F ----------------- TOTAL RAIN FOR MONTH: 1.08
DPTR FM NORMAL: +3.8F ----------------------- DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.63

December may turn out average temperature wise, but I bet it's another drier than normal month.

[cheezyWXguy]

Interesting setup at 204hr on the 6z GFS. Have had very little opportunity to look at models lately so I have no idea about the continuity of this solution, but if there is any, Texas could see another severe threat and some needed heavy rains out of it

[Brent]

33 and rain alert

[TheProfessor]

Interesting setup at 204hr on the 6z GFS. Have had very little opportunity to look at models lately so I have no idea about the continuity of this solution, but if there is any, Texas could see another severe threat and some needed heavy rains out of it

There was definitely something there on the 6z GFS, however the greatest severe threat would be further east due to the trough being positively tilted and not kicking out until later. You'd want to see a more neutrally tilted trough enter Texas if that potential were to be maximized. The 12z GFS shifted north with the trough so it seems like even less of a threat.

Okay now how many of you looked at the end of the 12z CMC? Looks like a classic overrunning setup. Just need a secondary low to form on the lee side of the Mexican mountains and more northeastward over central and east Texas.

[arizona_sooner]

Really nice late fall/early winter day here in Houston. Cool and cloudy with some sprinkles... I'm working at a chemical plant down by the ship channel, it was nice to be here all day with spotty sun and some rain given that I live in Arizona and we have not had rain since August. And the cool temps are awesome!

[Texas Snow]

My friends in Alpine had several inches this morning. Until they moved out there I really never new how much snow happened out in the big bend region, but even with elevation, it’s rather amazing for being so far south and in a desert.

[Brent]

My friends in Alpine had several inches this morning. Until they moved out there I really never new how much snow happened out in the big bend region, but even with elevation, it’s rather amazing for being so far south and in a desert.

Always amazes me how it can snow all around DFW literally we've come full circle this last week

[bubba hotep]

Only 300+ hrs out!

[starsfan65]

Only 300+ hrs out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020120618/gfs_asnow_scus_64.png

Come on Christmas Miracle!!

[Texas Snow]

With a hole over DFW (airport) it looks plausible.

[Brent]

With a hole over DFW (airport) it looks plausible.

expand the hole over the entire metro and I'll believe

[CaptinCrunch]

This morning AFD NWS FTW

"The main change that has occurred during the past 24 hours is that
the GFS and ECMWF have both slowed to showing the bulk of the
precipitation during the day Friday, mainly over eastern portions
of our forecast area (though it looks like most of our CWA will
get at least some rain). The implication of this slow down is that
it will give us several more hours of low-level warm air/moist
advection, thus allowing for more destabilization. Models still
show MLCAPE of less than 1,000 J/kg, but with plenty of wind shear
available (deep layer bulk shear magnitudes in excess of 50 KT),
any stronger thunderstorms may be able to become severe. We are
not quite at the point where it is time to sound a bunch of alarms
about severe weather on Friday in East Texas, but just know right
now that the potential does exist, and this aspect of the forecast
will have to be watched closely over the coming days.

Beyond Friday, the progressive nature of the upper-level storm
system will allow moisture and lift to exit out of our area,
bringing a cool but dry and sunny weekend to the region."

With lower to mid 70's on tap for Wednesday and Thursday I won't be surprised by any severe weather Friday east of DFW.

[cheezyWXguy]

This morning AFD NWS FTW

"The main change that has occurred during the past 24 hours is that
the GFS and ECMWF have both slowed to showing the bulk of the
precipitation during the day Friday, mainly over eastern portions
of our forecast area (though it looks like most of our CWA will
get at least some rain). The implication of this slow down is that
it will give us several more hours of low-level warm air/moist
advection, thus allowing for more destabilization. Models still
show MLCAPE of less than 1,000 J/kg, but with plenty of wind shear
available (deep layer bulk shear magnitudes in excess of 50 KT),
any stronger thunderstorms may be able to become severe. We are
not quite at the point where it is time to sound a bunch of alarms
about severe weather on Friday in East Texas, but just know right
now that the potential does exist, and this aspect of the forecast
will have to be watched closely over the coming days.

Beyond Friday, the progressive nature of the upper-level storm
system will allow moisture and lift to exit out of our area,
bringing a cool but dry and sunny weekend to the region."

With lower to mid 70's on tap for Wednesday and Thursday I won't be surprised by any severe weather Friday east of DFW.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see the western edge set up around the i35 corridor (assuming anything severe materializes) as this and previous systems have gradually slowed in projected timing as the events near, but Tyler and points east look to have a much better likelihood imo

[TeamPlayersBlue]

One thing i'll say about this pattern:

Many of these ULL's are coming down the spine of the Rockies, which a great angle for us TX folks. I think with a little bit more luck, a larger high pressure, we could see a snowstorm in TX IF this pattern continues.