Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has backed off on winter weather for next weekend and for the extreme cold the following week (27th-30th), it now has a 1037mb high vs. a 1065mb high in the Dakotas on the 27th.

[Ntxw]

The upper-level flow in the 6Z GFS run just doesn't look "right" for the cold it has at the surface near the end of the month. There is cross-Polar flow, but it's flowing from Canada INTO Siberia, not the other way around. Looks fishy, to me. I'd tend to believe the 00Z surface forecast vs. the extreme cold of the 06Z. Also, the GFS has the cold coming from Saskatchewan with above-normal temps in British Colombia & Alaska. Odd place for the origin of the cold air.

Pretty wild ens and gfs saw this week's cold snap 300+ hours out.

Just a note to everyone if you can, even if crazy, post long range images of runs snow, ice, heat, 500mb. Any maps will help when looking back to compare what transpired vs what was shown. It will be helpful when we look for model tendencies.

Finding model archives of older runs beyond a certain period can be tough.

Every GFS run for the past 2 months has had a cold snap 300+ hours out. Not even a freeze here in Houston this weekend.

Oh my friend your excess absorption of heat from your ultra magma chamber when H town falls below 80 has gotten to you! You forget GFS was showing heatwave after heatwave in December 300+ hours out too!

[wxman57]

[quote="Ntxw"
Oh my friend your excess absorption of heat from your ultra magma chamber when H town falls below 80 has gotten to you! You forget GFS was showing heatwave after heatwave in December 300+ hours out too![/quote]

It was quite warm in December. So far this January, Houston is running 2.2F above normal temperature-wise. 12Z GFS is about 20 deg warmer for Texas vs. the 06Z for the period around the 28th.

[wxman57]

Looking beyond this coming weekend to the following Friday, there is quite a difference in the long-range GFS between the 06z run and this morning's 12z run. Each is valid at noon Friday, the 28th. Freezing temps in Brownsville vs. 70s. Weather pattern suggests the 12Z is more likely correct.

http://wxman57.com/images/6zgfs.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/12zgfs.JPG

For the non-image impaired:

[txtwister78]

CMC and Euro aligning a bit more. GEFS still has an "interesting" setup that is completely different from its operational.

[Brent]

I'm getting tiny flakes again supposed to be sunny today

But yeah I'm so ready for a real snowstorm this was just a tease

[Ntxw]

I'm getting tiny flakes again supposed to be sunny today

But yeah I'm so ready for a real snowstorm this was just a tease

Got another shot next weekend. Cold air come first then shortwave behind it. Models differ how to handle the STJ but a decent set up.

We see a very similar set up as this past weekend but the ULL starts further west.

[Haris]

That low on the euro digging too S and too delayed

Definitely more uncertain of a forecast than even yesterday. Lots of room for error.

[orangeblood]

That low on the euro digging too S and too delayed

It’s a good trend though, going more towards GFS….now leaves the door open for a fairly large system to develop like some it’s Ensembles are showing

[orangeblood]

GEFS members continues to become more aggressive for late this week into the weekend….2/3rds of its members show some sort of accumulating snow for North Texas

[txtwister78]

Not too bad here either.....still a messy forecast to figure out as is usually the case in TX with winter precip/cold/timing.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Not too bad here either.....still a messy forecast to figure out as is usually the case in TX with winter precip/cold/timing.

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogra ... CaVq04.png

Funny nobody has posted one for houston..must be left out again lol

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[bubba hotep]

If this coming weekend is a swing and miss, then it will probably take a bit before our next window as the pattern starts a reset. What does Pacific forcing do beyond Week 2?

[Haris]

Not too bad here either.....still a messy forecast to figure out as is usually the case in TX with winter precip/cold/timing.

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KSAT/indiv_snow/1642334400/1642334400-xUKhECaVq04.png

Funny nobody has posted one for houston..must be left out again lol

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It’s hard getting snow in Houston. Even in Feb 2021, it only amounted to 1”. More of a ice / sleet concern for y’all if a storm comes

[jaguars_22]

I can remember Christmas 2004 we got a foot of snow in Victoria tx because of a gulf low. Is this the same setup possibly

[txtwister78]

I can remember Christmas 2004 we got a foot of snow in Victoria tx because of a gulf low. Is this the same setup possibly

Not likely.... that storm dug deep into Mexico and had good pacific moisture/connection with it. Whatever this is next week doesn't look to have that type of moisture profile/pattern associated with it. Possible that a low develops out in the gulf but even that would be a freezing rain, sleet or just a cold rain scenario depending on how much cold air there is to work with that far south.

[wxman22]

Not too bad here either.....still a messy forecast to figure out as is usually the case in TX with winter precip/cold/timing.

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KSAT/indiv_snow/1642334400/1642334400-xUKhECaVq04.png

Funny nobody has posted one for houston..must be left out again lol

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It’s hard getting snow in Houston. Even in Feb 2021, it only amounted to 1”. More of a ice / sleet concern for y’all if a storm comes

To be fair over the last decade we've had more snow events in SE Texas than y'all have had in central Texas.(Due mainly to a lack of moisture).Since 2008 snow events have become more common down here than they were in the 90s and most of the 2000s.Yall made up for the snow drought with last years storm though.

[Ntxw]

For SE Texas (frankly the gulf coast region in general) I've noticed you need a very +PNA type pattern along with a good -AO. That's the best for deep polar air masses and big ULL. It's always the cold that's the question mark down there, the gulf will always find moisture somehow. The big arctic blasts tends to be shallow and the upper cold doesn't make quite as far south.

[txtwister78]

Funny nobody has posted one for houston..must be left out again lol

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It’s hard getting snow in Houston. Even in Feb 2021, it only amounted to 1”. More of a ice / sleet concern for y’all if a storm comes

To be fair over the last decade we've had more snow events in SE Texas than y'all have had in central Texas.(Due mainly to a lack of moisture).Since 2008 snow events have become more common down here than they were in the 90s and most of the 2000s.Yall made up for the snow drought with last years storm though.

I look at it from a pattern specific viewpoint and I think the point was it takes a special kind of pattern (big arctic HP's) with the right upper level pattern/low pressure path to get snow that close to the coast. It can definitely happen as you pointed out, but more often than not it's going to be more of a sleet or freezing rain precip type (warm nose situation).

[Brent]

I'm gonna need a NW trend this week... I've had enough of the snowstorms to the east

On the positive I think Nashville got largely screwed and a lot of places struggled with warm air