Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2701 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:46 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Here in Victoria west I think temps will support frozen precip. Do the soundings show a chance for snow here?


NAM soundings are showing a Warm Nose, Sleet &/or Ice is more likely unfortunately.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2702 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:02 pm

WPC has a 5-10% chance of a Glaze of Ice along the Texas Coast Thursday-Friday, up to 30% in Louisiana & near San Antonio, TX
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2703 Postby lrak » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:03 pm

Going to have to break out the 5mm wetsuit for sure bruh :P .... :cold: I have an old board that has no fins installed and will be great for a downhill slide at Cole Park.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2704 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:25 pm

srainhoutx (WX Infinity) wrote:TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2705 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:27 pm

Lock. It. In.

Image

In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2706 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:51 pm

Not Texas, but the 18z gfs shows about the craziest nor’easter I can recall around hour 264. 959mb?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2707 Postby Haris » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:51 pm

Image


Heavy snow 2pm?!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2708 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:56 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Lock. It. In.

https://i.ibb.co/4Yzp4jB/Untitled.png

In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011812/gfs_z500_vort_us_57.png


That's Winter stuff for us Winter Weather modeling dorks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2709 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:58 pm

Current thoughts from Jeff Lindner for SE TX:

Strong cold front will move across the region Wednesday evening.

Slight chance of a mixture of precipitation Thursday night over portions of the area.


Today and tomorrow will be warm as southerly winds bring warmth and humidity back into the region ahead of a strong cold front on Wednesday evening. Enough moisture may be in place for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front Wednesday evening and a few could become strong or severe. This is a very marginal threat for severe weather as parameters are on the low side and will favor areas near the coast and around Galveston Bay and SE toward Chambers County.

Thursday:

Strong cold air advection will onset and expect temperatures to remain in the 30’s and low 40’s for the day. NAM guidance has been trending colder which is usual in these sort of cold air intrusions and would not be surprised if most areas remained in the 30’s all day. WSW/SW flow aloft will remain in place over top of the building surface cold dome and a short wave trough will approach Thursday afternoon and evening from the west. This trough will spread lift across the region and work with the remaining limited moisture to produce light precipitation. Strong northerly winds will be in place on Thursday resulting in wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s over the region.

Thursday night:

Warm layer (nose) noted in forecast sounding Thursday afternoon begins to erode over the area with profiles becoming more conducive for sleet or a mixture of sleet/rain/freezing rain mainly north of HWY 105. Moisture is still available in the evening hours, but between midnight and 600am on Friday the moisture begins to shift southward and drier air from the north works in. Surface freezing line will progress southward on Thursday evening and reach a line from roughly Huntsville to Hempstead to Columbus by late evening and possibly as far south as I-10 by Friday morning. Think the greatest potential for the moisture and cold air to overlap will be NW of a line from Livingston to Columbus where a transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet will be possible. Toward I-10 including the northern portions of Harris County sleet could mix with the light rain on Thursday night and there may be a brief period where light rain/drizzle could briefly freeze if the 32 line can get into northern Harris County…think this is slightly more likely into Waller and Montgomery Counties.

Impacts:

Ground temperatures will be warm on Thursday and Thursday night given mid 70’s likely on Wednesday and only about 24 hours of cold air across these surfaces. Elevated surfaces (trees, powerlines, rooftops, bridges) may cool closer to the air temperature yielding some potential for light icing on these surfaces from any freezing rain or drizzle. Precipitation amounts look to be on the low side….maybe .05 to .20 of liquid with the higher amounts closer to the coast where temperatures will be above freezing. Overall not expecting any accumulations at this time, although an icy patch on a bridge or light ice on trees and power lines is possible especially north of HWY 105.

Confidence:

As with most winter weather events in SE TX, the confidence on where the surface freezing line will be along with what type of precipitation may fall is always low confidence until close to the event. Many of the parameters with this upcoming event are marginal with both the cold air and moisture. Will see how models guidance trends today and see what the shorter range guidance outputs as we move into that time period later today into Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2710 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:00 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Not Texas, but the 18z gfs shows about the craziest nor’easter I can recall around hour 264. 959mb?

There was another one in the same general timeframe at 955 MB near Maine on the 12z run.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2711 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:49 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Lock. It. In.

https://i.ibb.co/4Yzp4jB/Untitled.png

In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011812/gfs_z500_vort_us_57.png


Barely any snow here of course lol :spam: can't even get a fantasy storm
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2712 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:58 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Lock. It. In.

https://i.ibb.co/4Yzp4jB/Untitled.png

In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011812/gfs_z500_vort_us_57.png


20" of snow in Texarkana in back to back years would be pretty amazing. I still can't believe it happened last year in just 2 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2713 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:17 pm

aggiecutter wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Lock. It. In.

https://i.ibb.co/4Yzp4jB/Untitled.png

In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011812/gfs_z500_vort_us_57.png


20" of snow in Texarkana in back to back years would be pretty amazing. I still can't believe it happened last year in just 2 days.



Yeah, the pictures from my parents house in Longview last year was just insane. Their dog buried itself in the snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2714 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:56 pm



Of course I’m dry slotted…. And I’m in bell county…. :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2715 Postby Golf7270 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:12 pm

It's all about trough orientation when it comes to winter storms. Trough has definitely been too far east, which cuts off the moisture source for us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2716 Postby Haris » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:58 pm

Image

Good 0z run for those in SCTX. Let’s hope it stays through tomorrow
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2717 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:10 pm

Iceresistance wrote:NWS Houston is saying that there is a slight chance of light Wintry Mix Thursday Night, mostly north of I-10 for now.


I agree with that. The NAM is very much the outlier model. Even the normally cold Canadian model keeps Houston above freezing Thursday night and Friday, only mid 30s. Let's hope it's wrong, anyway. At least I won't have to drive to work Friday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2718 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 am

You know it's been a bad night of model runs when you check in late night and the last post was at 8:00 pm by rhe Heat Miser lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2719 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:39 am

Not holding my breath given our recent trends but maybe this will actually be decent definitely the next window to watch. I just want something more than a two hour window for flurries

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2720 Postby TexasF6 » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:56 am

Winter Storm Watch issued for Central Texas!!! Porta, thoughts? Champ The Charger time? :D
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