jaguars_22 wrote:Here in Victoria west I think temps will support frozen precip. Do the soundings show a chance for snow here?
NAM soundings are showing a Warm Nose, Sleet &/or Ice is more likely unfortunately.
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jaguars_22 wrote:Here in Victoria west I think temps will support frozen precip. Do the soundings show a chance for snow here?
srainhoutx (WX Infinity) wrote:TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.
bubba hotep wrote:Lock. It. In.
https://i.ibb.co/4Yzp4jB/Untitled.png
In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011812/gfs_z500_vort_us_57.png
Strong cold front will move across the region Wednesday evening.
Slight chance of a mixture of precipitation Thursday night over portions of the area.
Today and tomorrow will be warm as southerly winds bring warmth and humidity back into the region ahead of a strong cold front on Wednesday evening. Enough moisture may be in place for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front Wednesday evening and a few could become strong or severe. This is a very marginal threat for severe weather as parameters are on the low side and will favor areas near the coast and around Galveston Bay and SE toward Chambers County.
Thursday:
Strong cold air advection will onset and expect temperatures to remain in the 30’s and low 40’s for the day. NAM guidance has been trending colder which is usual in these sort of cold air intrusions and would not be surprised if most areas remained in the 30’s all day. WSW/SW flow aloft will remain in place over top of the building surface cold dome and a short wave trough will approach Thursday afternoon and evening from the west. This trough will spread lift across the region and work with the remaining limited moisture to produce light precipitation. Strong northerly winds will be in place on Thursday resulting in wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s over the region.
Thursday night:
Warm layer (nose) noted in forecast sounding Thursday afternoon begins to erode over the area with profiles becoming more conducive for sleet or a mixture of sleet/rain/freezing rain mainly north of HWY 105. Moisture is still available in the evening hours, but between midnight and 600am on Friday the moisture begins to shift southward and drier air from the north works in. Surface freezing line will progress southward on Thursday evening and reach a line from roughly Huntsville to Hempstead to Columbus by late evening and possibly as far south as I-10 by Friday morning. Think the greatest potential for the moisture and cold air to overlap will be NW of a line from Livingston to Columbus where a transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet will be possible. Toward I-10 including the northern portions of Harris County sleet could mix with the light rain on Thursday night and there may be a brief period where light rain/drizzle could briefly freeze if the 32 line can get into northern Harris County…think this is slightly more likely into Waller and Montgomery Counties.
Impacts:
Ground temperatures will be warm on Thursday and Thursday night given mid 70’s likely on Wednesday and only about 24 hours of cold air across these surfaces. Elevated surfaces (trees, powerlines, rooftops, bridges) may cool closer to the air temperature yielding some potential for light icing on these surfaces from any freezing rain or drizzle. Precipitation amounts look to be on the low side….maybe .05 to .20 of liquid with the higher amounts closer to the coast where temperatures will be above freezing. Overall not expecting any accumulations at this time, although an icy patch on a bridge or light ice on trees and power lines is possible especially north of HWY 105.
Confidence:
As with most winter weather events in SE TX, the confidence on where the surface freezing line will be along with what type of precipitation may fall is always low confidence until close to the event. Many of the parameters with this upcoming event are marginal with both the cold air and moisture. Will see how models guidance trends today and see what the shorter range guidance outputs as we move into that time period later today into Wednesday.
cheezyWXguy wrote:Not Texas, but the 18z gfs shows about the craziest nor’easter I can recall around hour 264. 959mb?
bubba hotep wrote:Lock. It. In.
https://i.ibb.co/4Yzp4jB/Untitled.png
In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011812/gfs_z500_vort_us_57.png
bubba hotep wrote:Lock. It. In.
https://i.ibb.co/4Yzp4jB/Untitled.png
In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011812/gfs_z500_vort_us_57.png
aggiecutter wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Lock. It. In.
https://i.ibb.co/4Yzp4jB/Untitled.png
In all seriousness, show me this H5 pattern and I'll show you a Texas Snowstorm! Which is totally different than previous runs that showed snowstorms and it was obvious that the H5 pattern was wack and not going to produce a snowstorm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011812/gfs_z500_vort_us_57.png
20" of snow in Texarkana in back to back years would be pretty amazing. I still can't believe it happened last year in just 2 days.
Iceresistance wrote:NWS Houston is saying that there is a slight chance of light Wintry Mix Thursday Night, mostly north of I-10 for now.
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