Texas Winter 2021-2022

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I see towards the end of the month and into February it looks like our source region could be loading up again but it also appears like a -PNA could be setting in too. I’m not sure how I feel about it.

-PNA isn’t terrible in Feb

[Cpv17]

I see towards the end of the month and into February it looks like our source region could be loading up again but it also appears like a -PNA could be setting in too. I’m not sure how I feel about it.

-PNA isn’t terrible in Feb

Yeah I think Ntxw mentioned that a few days ago.

[Texas Snowman]

Wait, we’re almost at 140 pages? What happened to that Winter Cancel back in December?

[Brent]

I see towards the end of the month and into February it looks like our source region could be loading up again but it also appears like a -PNA could be setting in too. I’m not sure how I feel about it.

-PNA isn’t terrible in Feb

Yeah I think Ntxw mentioned that a few days ago.

I just hope there's better moisture either way. It's been so dry

[Cpv17]

-PNA isn’t terrible in Feb

Yeah I think Ntxw mentioned that a few days ago.

I just hope there's better moisture either way. It's been so dry

Everything blows up east of us. It’s hella annoying.

[Golf7270]

A pna would be good for us if it's not too negative. Something to consider moving forward. If its anything like December, then its game over. No questions asked lol

[Brent]

Yeah I think Ntxw mentioned that a few days ago.

I just hope there's better moisture either way. It's been so dry

Everything blows up east of us. It’s hella annoying.

Yeah I know I've been annoyed about the snow but we can't even get a solid rain. Today again literally an hour of moisture and it was still warm enough for rain and that was it had a shower then a sleet shower then that was it

[Iceresistance]

I just hope there's better moisture either way. It's been so dry

Everything blows up east of us. It’s hella annoying.

Yeah I know I've been annoyed about the snow but we can't even get a solid rain. Today again literally an hour of moisture and that was it

The Drought is getting worse as well.

[Haris]

Everything blows up east of us. It’s hella annoying.

Yeah I know I've been annoyed about the snow but we can't even get a solid rain. Today again literally an hour of moisture and that was it

The Drought is getting worse as well.

The monitor tomorrow will be ugly.

[cstrunk]

A nice little severe thunderstorm blew through Longview this afternoon and dropped some 1" hail. I didn't see it, but it was only a couple miles away where my coworker filmed it from her house.

I ended up with 0.70".

[Brent]

But I'm skeptical the TV forecast was extremely cold again but dry earlier

Tulsa HWO tonight

Forecast data is beginning to hint at the potential for wintry
weather early next week. The potential and details will continue to
be refined in the coming days.

[TexasF6]

Radar is lighting up!!! The Pacific plume is working some magic, I suspect a shortwave or two coming in that moisture stream. I have noted temps dropping and some good ol' Austin drizzle mist on the texmesonet?

[gboudx]

Update from jeff.

Slight potential of a mixture of rain, sleet, freezing rain tonight for areas mainly south of I-10.

Strong cold front has moved off the coast overnight with temperatures now in the 30’s and 40’s over the area with strong north winds of 20-30mph. Surface freezing line extends from Kerrville to Georgetown to north of Caldwell at 600am and will continue to move southward this morning with the most southward push to the west of SE TX across the I-35 corridor and into SC TX and the Rio Grande plains. Wind chills have fallen into the 20’s and 30’s over much of the region and with strong winds will remain at those levels through the day today.

Shortwave to the west is already generating some precipitation along the Rio Grande and the lift associated with this feature will spread eastward and across SC and SE TX today and tonight. Surface temperatures will cool today with most locations falling into the 30’s by mid to late afternoon. Light rain will develop from the WSW to the ENE across the area by late morning into the early afternoon hours and then continue into tonight. Moisture and lift will be greatest around Matagorda Bay and to the south and west and moisture becomes much more limited over SE TX with the highest levels along and south of I-10.

As the colder air mass continues to filter in tonight the freezing line will progress southward and likely reach I-10/US 59 areas be 300-600am Friday morning. Much of the precipitation tonight will fall south of the freezing line and into the above freezing air (33-37). While sounding profiles become increasingly supportive of a rain/sleet mix or transition to sleet, warm surface temperatures and ground temperatures will likely result in melting of anything frozen that falls. There could be a brief window where the freezing line overlaps with the departing precipitation early Friday morning where a change to freezing rain would be possible, but even where this does happen we are only looking at 31-32 degrees and the departing precipitation looks very light.

Impacts:
With the light precipitation expected any significant impacts look minimal. The cold air and the moisture just are not lining up correctly over SE TX (maybe Matagorda Bay area) and certainly points SW of that are covered in the Winter Storm Warning area. Warm ground temperatures likely in the upper 30’s to low 40’s will help to mitigate any accumulations. Elevated objects (trees, powerlines, vehicles, bridges) could see some very minor ice accumulations south of I-10. Can’t rule out an icy patch on a bridge or overpass, but significant travel disruption is not likely.

Confidence:
Forecast confidence is moderate to high. A couple things to watch today will be the surface temperatures to make sure the freezing line is following the model guidance and also the development and arrival of the light precipitation and its general placement across the area and to see how well that lines up with the forecast guidance output.

Areawide freeze is likely on Saturday morning (27-32) for most areas, but conditions will be dry.

Another storm system will approach the region late Sunday into Monday with rain and showers likely, but temperatures should be warm enough to keep this all liquid.

[TropicalTundra]

Is any of that sleet/snow going to reach me? I already see sleet moving in to Burnet county. I could definitely see sleet or snow moving in to Williamson county. I'm probably just going to end up dry slotted again.

[wxman57]

Weather seems different across Houston this morning. I just can't quite place what has changed...

[wxman57]

Is any of that sleet/snow going to reach me? I already see sleet moving in to Burnet county. I could definitely see sleet or snow moving in to Williamson county. I'm probably just going to end up dry slotted again.

Model sounding indicates air aloft does not favor sleet. If you get anything, you may see a few small snowflakes until around noon. There just isn't much moisture that far north, though. Best chance for winter weather will be in the Lower Rio Grande Valley today. You guys in D-FW are just too far north. You should move to Laredo.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Mets in SE Tx wont know whats going to happen until precip starts lighting up the radar. Might be a good day for a special weather balloon for Houston.

[Rgv20]

Not your usual forecast for the RGV....going to be an interesting 24hrs!

[Brent]

:cold: Weather seems different across Houston this morning. I just can't quite place what has changed...

Going for a bike ride today?

[wxman57]

Mets in SE Tx wont know whats going to happen until precip starts lighting up the radar. Might be a good day for a special weather balloon for Houston.

Seriously? I think we're all aware that a cold front moved through and that there is a slight chance of a quickly-melting sleet pellet.