#3154 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:39 am
As is usually the case, the 500mb pattern still looks pretty inconsistent this far out from model to model and run to run. It looks to me like the main factors to watch for are:
- how progressive the trough is
- how far south it digs
- whether or not it cuts off or if shortwaves round the base
After a mediocre 6z gfs run, the 12z looks to me like a step back in the right direction. The trough is a little slower, digs a lot further south, and looks as though it turns negative as it transits across Texas. However no post-frontal precip is depicted. Just a guess here, but if that pattern actually played out, I would be inclined to think it would be primed for a shortwave to ride up as it moves over the area. But as far as I know these features aren’t well resolved until no more than a couple days out.
It kind of feels like we’ve reached that mid-range phase where the models back away. The next 2-3 days will probably tell us whether or not this system is still worth watching, and if the pretty colors start coming back by the time we are 3-4 days out, we can start dabbling on specifics
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