Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3141 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:06 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Crippling event on the ICON.


Recently found out that you can see all the Winter Weather modes on the ICON on WeatherNerds!


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/icon.html


I can't figure out how to get that site to work. It's like it's 1998.


I don't think there is a mobile version of WeatherNerds.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3142 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:10 am

txtwister78 wrote:Relying on the NAM can be a dangerous gamble though when it comes to surface features and consequently precip outputs (even 48 hours out) The NAM is notorious for windshield wiping. The GFS has been pretty consistent and now the Euro has been moving east little by little with each run. Really all about when and where the upper low forms for the NE and in particular the I-95 corridor


True but I've seen numerous coups over the years by the NAM when it comes to Nor'easters...it can't be ignored
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3143 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:20 am

orangeblood wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Relying on the NAM can be a dangerous gamble though when it comes to surface features and consequently precip outputs (even 48 hours out) The NAM is notorious for windshield wiping. The GFS has been pretty consistent and now the Euro has been moving east little by little with each run. Really all about when and where the upper low forms for the NE and in particular the I-95 corridor


True but I've seen numerous coups over the years by the NAM when it comes to Nor'easters...it can't be ignored


No it can happen for sure, but it wouldn't be the model I would go with 48 hours out especially if I had signals going in a different direction. But other than the GFS (develops the low too late), it's still a close call and obviously timing and placement 30-40 miles either direction could very well decide this for the I-95.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3144 Postby dhweather » Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:39 am

Based on the overall pattern and what we've seen thus far this year, I'm expecting the faster, more progressive solution for next week's trough - basically little to no precip. Hope I'm wrong, we really need some precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3145 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:48 am

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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3146 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:10 am

Note that Levi's Tropical Tidbits site now has the Euro maps every 3 hrs to 120 hrs and every 6 hrs thereafter. Many more parameters added. I don't see a winter weather map (snow or ice) though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3147 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:18 am

dhweather wrote:Based on the overall pattern and what we've seen thus far this year, I'm expecting the faster, more progressive solution for next week's trough - basically little to no precip. Hope I'm wrong, we really need some precip.


This is a very good point. Unless we see some changes in the ridging in both the Atlantic and Pacific, it's safe to assume the more progressive solutions.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3148 Postby Haris » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:21 am

Man I hate it here lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3149 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:24 am

I thought the models were showing more coastal ridging next week. Is that no longer the case? Has quickly shifted back to doom and gloom. I haven't had time to look at anything since yesterday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3150 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:26 am

Haris wrote:Man I hate it here lol


ICON's solution is what you need for a Texas winter storm next week, bundles the energy down into Baja with a cut-off ULL while GFS continues the progressive look/long wave trough. Vastly different solutions, a compromise b/w the two would still work for Texas

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3151 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:27 am

rwfromkansas wrote:I thought the models were showing more coastal ridging next week. Is that no longer the case? Has quickly shifted back to doom and gloom. I haven't had time to look at anything since yesterday.


The past couple of model runs have shown the low not digging far enough south into Mexico and ejecting too fast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3152 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:31 am

Cpv17 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I thought the models were showing more coastal ridging next week. Is that no longer the case? Has quickly shifted back to doom and gloom. I haven't had time to look at anything since yesterday.


The past couple of model runs have shown the low not digging far enough south into Mexico and ejecting too fast.


GFS really has no low (ULL) at all...just an elongated trough. Lots of cold though. Would be a bummer to waste all that cold and get little to no precip but still early.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3153 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:34 am

Long way to go but I don't understand why we can't get something consistently good this winter to show up :spam: it's been very frustrating to say the least. The east keeps having their fun when is ours? Everyone says wait til February well it's next week...
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3154 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:39 am

As is usually the case, the 500mb pattern still looks pretty inconsistent this far out from model to model and run to run. It looks to me like the main factors to watch for are:
- how progressive the trough is
- how far south it digs
- whether or not it cuts off or if shortwaves round the base
After a mediocre 6z gfs run, the 12z looks to me like a step back in the right direction. The trough is a little slower, digs a lot further south, and looks as though it turns negative as it transits across Texas. However no post-frontal precip is depicted. Just a guess here, but if that pattern actually played out, I would be inclined to think it would be primed for a shortwave to ride up as it moves over the area. But as far as I know these features aren’t well resolved until no more than a couple days out.

It kind of feels like we’ve reached that mid-range phase where the models back away. The next 2-3 days will probably tell us whether or not this system is still worth watching, and if the pretty colors start coming back by the time we are 3-4 days out, we can start dabbling on specifics
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3155 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:41 am

Brent wrote:Long way to go but I don't understand why we can't get something consistently good this winter to show up :spam: it's been very frustrating to say the least. The east keeps having their fun when is ours? Everyone says wait til February well it's next week...


The simple answer is we can't get enough upper level energy to dig into the Desert Southwest/Northern Mexico to pull Pacific Moisture/even Gulf Moisture into our local...until then dry dry dry
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3156 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:43 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:As is usually the case, the 500mb pattern still looks pretty inconsistent this far out from model to model and run to run. It looks to me like the main factors to watch for are:
- how progressive the trough is
- how far south it digs
- whether or not it cuts off or if shortwaves round the base
After a mediocre 6z gfs run, the 12z looks to me like a step back in the right direction. The trough is a little slower, digs a lot further south, and looks as though it turns negative as it transits across Texas. However no post-frontal precip is depicted. Just a guess here, but if that pattern actually played out, I would be inclined to think it would be primed for a shortwave to ride up as it moves over the area. But as far as I know these features aren’t well resolved until no more than a couple days out.

It kind of feels like we’ve reached that mid-range phase where the models back away. The next 2-3 days will probably tell us whether or not this system is still worth watching, and if the pretty colors start coming back by the time we are 3-4 days out, we can start dabbling on specifics


Yep, we've seen the 5-6 day model range pull back time and time again only to eventually go back to its long range solution...it happens almost every single season
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3157 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:45 am

wxman57 wrote:Note that Levi's Tropical Tidbits site now has the Euro maps every 3 hrs to 120 hrs and every 6 hrs thereafter. Many more parameters added. I don't see a winter weather map (snow or ice) though.


TT doesn't have the feature yet.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3158 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:51 am

A compromise between the 12z GFS & CMC would be very nice :lol:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3159 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:53 am

Although the GFS doesn’t really show much for next week, I like what I’m seeing long term on it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3160 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:56 am

About sums it up so far this winter precip wise.

Image
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