Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3307
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2861 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:11 am

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA :cry:


Lift. Upper level divergence is a great mechanism for this. Today, most of the lift and divergence was to the south.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2862 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:12 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Made it down to 9 this morning.


My house managed to record 8°F, Watonga, OK fell to 5°F
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2863 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:13 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:6z GFS at the long range may be playing tricks, but that's a crippling Ice Storm for Central & Northern Texas if it verified.

The Radar & Soundings don't match up to each other very well in Oklahoma though.

And 1060+ MB Highs in Alaska & Canada as well, with lows as far down as -60°F


So now we know what wont happen. Got it.

It's been saying this since mid december and we have yet to have a 1050mb cross the border!

It's educational to see how they develop, but other than that, lets not try to excite the board or others who dont understand that the chances of this happening are something like 2%, when models show it past 300 hours.


I do want to mention that the GFS has been doing something similar to that for a while now.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2864 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:23 am

GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2865 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:42 am

Iceresistance wrote:GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.


Uh oh. We want 8-2 right?
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2866 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:44 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.


Uh oh. We want 8-2 right?


Yes from Previous Posts, but since the MJO is inactive, we don't know when or where it will reemerge it's basically anyone's guess until we get better information & knowledge on when it will come back out.
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2867 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:51 am

The MJO hasn’t been in a favorable phase the entire winter.
0 likes   

UTSARoadrunner4
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 163
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:19 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2868 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:18 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA :cry:


You either need the polar and subtropical jets to phase or a ULL digging down into Mexico and ejecting out into the Southern part of the state in a ENEasterly fashion for SA to get considerable winter weather.

I'd argue that the precip is normally around in bits and pieces in Winter, its getting SA cold enough. The best case scenarios are Nino type winters with an active STJ and a lot of snow pack to our north. If you see OK to Canada covered in measurable snow, you'll get some overperforming events because the models will typically be too warm due to moderating the front.

What's funny about Texas is its hard to get a Winter Storm for most of the state like last February. Whats good for Dallas is typically not all that great for Austin/SA/Houston, and whats good for Austin/SA may not be all that great for Houston and vice versa.

I guess that’s the blessing/curse for living in such a large state. Not everyone can be satisfied with the type of winter weather that they get.
1 likes   

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2869 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:24 am

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA :cry:


You either need the polar and subtropical jets to phase or a ULL digging down into Mexico and ejecting out into the Southern part of the state in a ENEasterly fashion for SA to get considerable winter weather.

I'd argue that the precip is normally around in bits and pieces in Winter, its getting SA cold enough. The best case scenarios are Nino type winters with an active STJ and a lot of snow pack to our north. If you see OK to Canada covered in measurable snow, you'll get some overperforming events because the models will typically be too warm due to moderating the front.

What's funny about Texas is its hard to get a Winter Storm for most of the state like last February. Whats good for Dallas is typically not all that great for Austin/SA/Houston, and whats good for Austin/SA may not be all that great for Houston and vice versa.

I guess that’s the blessing/curse for living in such a large state. Not everyone can be satisfied with the type of winter weather that they get.


Yeah, winter storms typically have a narrow band of heavy snow, ice etc. Last February was definitely unusual.
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2870 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:44 am

It's somewhat chilly here in Houston today. A temperature of 100F would feel much better. GFS & Euro are still battling over that east coast storm around the 29-30th. GFS has a massive storm while the Euro has a weak low offshore. Who will win?
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2871 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:10 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The MJO hasn’t been in a favorable phase the entire winter.


We were in Phase 8 earlier this month
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
TropicalTundra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 567
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: Temple, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2872 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:13 pm

Got pretty much nothing yesterday. Just some light sleet, cold temps, lots of wind, and a snowflake or 2 I didn't see. Kind of a boring winter pattern. Hopefully February looks up because so far January has been pretty much the runt of the snow season.
0 likes   
Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2873 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:34 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Got pretty much nothing yesterday. Just some light sleet, cold temps, lots of wind, and a snowflake or 2 I didn't see. Kind of a boring winter pattern. Hopefully February looks up because so far January has been pretty much the runt of the snow season.


My heart yearns for the north branch to merge with with the STJ with a 1060+mb high coming down dropping temps in Texas from anywhere below zero to the 20’s with a couple feet for a snow for most of the state. And for it to stay cold for a couple weeks so the snow doesn’t melt. In my dreams right? :lol:
7 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2874 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:20 pm

The Setup is good, but the Southern Ridge won't let the cold come here!

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65f0b2b1f6323096c6.png
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2875 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:49 pm

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2876 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:56 am

Third light freeze of the season here in Houston this morning. That's fewer than normal for this time of year. Still too cold to go outside. Cold without snow remains pointless. We're gaining nearly a minute of sunshine each day not. Average temps are beginning to creep up.
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1966
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2877 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:56 am

9 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2878 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:16 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:


Because it's 2 weeks out, experimental and the way winter is going why get emotionally involved. And it's not even for Texas.....


I do want to point out that the risk of Heavy Snow has moved further South, last time, it was in NE Kansas, now it's at the OK/KS Border.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2879 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:25 am

Strong snowfall signal for Oklahoma 5-7 Days out on the 6z GEFS

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Only-7-Days-out.png
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2880 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:36 am

Icon snows west of DFW this week. Looks like Abilene bullseye this run.

Sneaky shortwave.

Rgem and nam are pretty close. HP up north feeding CAA while separation of Lower heights to the NE.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 56 guests