Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

WXman57 wont like thaat NAM.

Big event in SCTX if it and hrrr verifies

And Southern Texas for snow if the 15z SREF verified.

[jaguars_22]

Yes the Nam has been consistent! Now has an even bigger area of ice and sleet. Now showing a gulf low at same time… hello Christmas 2004

[wxman57]

WXman57 wont like thaat NAM.

Big event in SCTX if it and hrrr verifies

I don't buy the NAM solution at all. I'm expecting cold rain with the chance of a quickly melting sleet pellet.

[South Texas Storms]

WXman57 wont like thaat NAM.

Big event in SCTX if it and hrrr verifies

I don't buy the NAM solution at all. I'm expecting cold rain with the chance of a quickly melting sleet pellet.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the NAM and HRRR. They certainly look reasonable if we see a stronger disturbance moving across Mexico. Cold temperatures won't be the problem...moisture looks to be the limiting factor right now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I would pay the Weather Gods money to make the NAM happen, except move the bullseyes over SW Houston and SW Montgomery County.

[jaguars_22]

Is it true that we don’t have quality data of precip that comes across Mexico? I think this becomes something greater than a sleet pellet…

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion...Forecast now calls for Wintry Precip on the forecast for the Ranchlands of Deep South Texas Thursday Night/Friday Morning. For the RGV the forecast still calls for all rain....35 and rain

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):

There won`t be much to slow the shallow, arctic origin air mass
which will surge south into Texas late Wednesday. A shallow mid
level trough over the Southwest will eventually synch up with the
Plains trough, creating a large scale trough just upstream. This
pattern will support overrunning and increased precipitation
chances across the CWA, primarily Thursday to Friday or even
Saturday. I say precip rather than just rain since there may be a
(currently) small, but nonzero chance of wintry precip across the
Brush Country and Ranchlands Thursday night into Friday.

Long range models are in fairly good agreement with the timing of
this front (to the coast by dawn Thursday) and also show isolated
showers late Wednesday along and ahead of the front. Overrunning
will take over soon after colder air pushes across the area with
robuster rain chances. Long range models are now stabilizing on
the details of temperature and rain chances in the wake of the
front, but there still has been a trend toward slightly lower
temperatures on Friday, moreso in the GFS. Dropped overnight low
temps a degree more Friday and Saturday mornings, but left the
inherited forecast otherwise intact.

Strong cold air advection and overrunning conditions will develop
on Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will not increase much,
if any, from morning lows, meaning daily high temps will occur
Wednesday night. Current thinking is robust rain chances (albeit
modest QPF amounts) will develop in the wake of the front on
Thursday and will continue into Friday and Saturday. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s north to the 50s
southeast with the lower RGV hanging on to the highest temps in
the upper 50s to near 60 before being completely overtaken by
colder air. Thursday night low temperatures will dip into the 30s
across the board, with "feels like" temps down in the 20s by early
morning. Freezing weather is forecast for the Ranchlands.

Though the lift with the initial surface surge mostly will be
over late on Thursday, upper divergence (lift) will come more into
focus over the Ranchlands Thursday night. Precip chances will
increase, including through an 850 to 700 mb layer that comes very
close to crossing completely into freezing territory. Thus, a
period of wintry mix including freezing rain could develop across
northern sections and confidence is now fair for a wee bit of
wintry precip Thursday night. A reasonable worst case scenario
suggests wintry precip and freezing temps possibly scooping
farther south, with correspondingly lesser confidence, into North
Starr, North Hidalgo, and Willacy Counties. QPF amounts appear
modest, however, a few hundreths to a couple of tenths of an inch,
but that doesn`t obscure the significance of the precip type.

Friday will be quite chilly and the coldest day of the week with
high temperatures across the area mainly in the 40s. Overrunning
light rain will still be a good bet. Rain chances/amounts will taper
off a bit by Friday night, however. Low temps will again be in the
30s Friday night with another light freeze possible.

Cooler weather and light rain chances will linger through the
weekend with a secondary high pressure surge showing up on Saturday,
but the in place air mass will start to slowly modify and the freeze
threat should be low for Saturday night. If an upstream shortwave
trough moves across North Mexico and South Texas Sunday into Monday,
coastal troughing and amplified rain chances would materialize early
next week.

[HockeyTx82]

I would pay the Weather Gods money to make the NAM happen, except move the bullseyes over SW Houston and SW Montgomery County.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011818/namconus_asnow_scus_25.png

Huh, something about a saying thunder in Winter, snow is coming.

They had tornadoes just last week.

[wxman57]

WXman57 wont like thaat NAM.

Big event in SCTX if it and hrrr verifies

I don't buy the NAM solution at all. I'm expecting cold rain with the chance of a quickly melting sleet pellet.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the NAM and HRRR. They certainly look reasonable if we see a stronger disturbance moving across Mexico. Cold temperatures won't be the problem...moisture looks to be the limiting factor right now.

I think that cold temperatures (Houston) will be the main problem. I believe that the NAM is too cold with its temperature forecast (at least I hope so). The air up north really isn't that cold. Only single digits in northern Montana.

[HockeyTx82]

I don't buy the NAM solution at all. I'm expecting cold rain with the chance of a quickly melting sleet pellet.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the NAM and HRRR. They certainly look reasonable if we see a stronger disturbance moving across Mexico. Cold temperatures won't be the problem...moisture looks to be the limiting factor right now.

I think that cold temperatures (Houston) will be the main problem. I believe that the NAM is too cold with its temperature forecast (at least I hope so). The air up north really isn't that cold. Only single digits in northern Montana.

[rwfromkansas]

Just a caution that Tropical Tidbits tends to go nuts with snow etc.

This is Pivotal. Night and day....much less close to the coast. It does snow lots of freezing rain though.

[Brent]

I would pay the Weather Gods money to make the NAM happen, except move the bullseyes over SW Houston and SW Montgomery County.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011818/namconus_asnow_scus_25.png

Lmao 10 inches. Good one NAM

[Haris]

I don't buy the NAM solution at all. I'm expecting cold rain with the chance of a quickly melting sleet pellet.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the NAM and HRRR. They certainly look reasonable if we see a stronger disturbance moving across Mexico. Cold temperatures won't be the problem...moisture looks to be the limiting factor right now.

I think that cold temperatures (Houston) will be the main problem. I believe that the NAM is too cold with its temperature forecast (at least I hope so). The air up north really isn't that cold. Only single digits in northern Montana.

Oh good.. We wont have that issue in Austin

[PTrackerLA]

18z NAM Ice Accumulations...

[Iceresistance]

I would pay the Weather Gods money to make the NAM happen, except move the bullseyes over SW Houston and SW Montgomery County.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011818/namconus_asnow_scus_25.png

Lmao 10 inches. Good one NAM

Most of the 'Snowfall' is from Sleet/Ice, if that radar verified, there would be a Sleet Storm or Ice Storm across the Texas Coast.

[Ntxw]

I don't buy the NAM solution at all. I'm expecting cold rain with the chance of a quickly melting sleet pellet.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the NAM and HRRR. They certainly look reasonable if we see a stronger disturbance moving across Mexico. Cold temperatures won't be the problem...moisture looks to be the limiting factor right now.

I think that cold temperatures (Houston) will be the main problem. I believe that the NAM is too cold with its temperature forecast (at least I hope so). The air up north really isn't that cold. Only single digits in northern Montana.

I don't know sir. GFS had mid 30s, Icon lower 30s, while NAM is 30-32 so pretty close temps. 850mb <0c temps are lined up in the northern sections of SE Texas and S-Central Texas so not too bad, could support.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just a caution that Tropical Tidbits tends to go nuts with snow etc.

This is Pivotal. Night and day....much less close to the coast. It does snow lots of freezing rain though.

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2022011818/072/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

Yeah the difference being everything south of there is ice accumulation. Tropicaltidbits doesn’t have the setting to decipher these, but pivotal does

[jaguars_22]

Here in Victoria west I think temps will support frozen precip. Do the soundings show a chance for snow here?

[Iceresistance]

NWS Houston is saying that there is a slight chance of light Wintry Mix Thursday Night, mostly north of I-10 for now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

NWS Houston is saying that there is a slight chance of light Wintry Mix Thursday Night, mostly north of I-10 for now.

Step by step. Confidence is rising