Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6521 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:02 pm

Interesting for DFW the late month cold snap departures were greater than the early month chill. February will close out well below normal. Even though a warm up is in store, ENs suggest the first couple of weeks in March will be below normal. It has been a winter notorious for the complete reversal from December to Jan and Feb.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6522 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:Interesting for DFW the late month cold snap departures were greater than the early month chill. February will close out well below normal. Even though a warm up is in store, ENs suggest the first couple of weeks in March will be below normal. It has been a winter notorious for the complete reversal from December to Jan and Feb.

What do you think of the March 8-10 timeframe? Looks to be colder. Perhaps winter's last caress?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6523 Postby cstrunk » Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:50 pm

35F and thunderstorm in Longview.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6524 Postby Haris » Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:Interesting for DFW the late month cold snap departures were greater than the early month chill. February will close out well below normal. Even though a warm up is in store, ENs suggest the first couple of weeks in March will be below normal. It has been a winter notorious for the complete reversal from December to Jan and Feb.

Image
Not a bad winter for sure for you
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6525 Postby wxman57 » Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:08 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Don’t look now, but your latest “winter is over for Texas” forecast may have unraveled less than 12 hours later, my friend.

It doesn’t look like very much frozen precip, but Winter Weather Advisories are now up for DFW tomorrow morning.

Hang in there, this pesky February and the winter of 2021-22 will be over soon! :D


Mid to upper 30s and light rain isn't exactly a snow storm. Steadily warming temperatures will start tomorrow and continue through mid March. Winter is now over for D-FW area. We'll be in the 80s next weekend in Houston.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6526 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:00 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Interesting for DFW the late month cold snap departures were greater than the early month chill. February will close out well below normal. Even though a warm up is in store, ENs suggest the first couple of weeks in March will be below normal. It has been a winter notorious for the complete reversal from December to Jan and Feb.

What do you think of the March 8-10 timeframe? Looks to be colder. Perhaps winter's last caress?


I wouldn't say last grasp. But likely another surge of anomalous cold relative to March. EPS and GEFS tanks the EPO and drives some cold in the same areas middle continent. It's blizzard time for Amarillo and Western Oklahoma. The last 'gasp' for winter will be when the final warming of the SPV disperses what's left, which some years we label 'the easter cold snap.'
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6527 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:06 pm

Climate Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk of Flooding for the Ohio & Mississippi River Valleys in Early March.

The Drought Feedback may start to show itself unless the pattern breaks.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6528 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Climate Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk of Flooding for the Ohio & Mississippi River Valleys in Early March.

The Drought Feedback may start to show itself unless the pattern breaks.


The PDO remains negative. It has a very strong correlation to our short, medium, and long term rainfall patterns. We'll get spouts of rain/qpf but in general they will be modest at best through spring followed by longer periods of below normal precipitation. Expect 2022 to be a relatively dry year that began the second half of 2021.

It can be reversed if the PDO flips due to an El Nino but at this time that's a low probability. If it does happen we won't benefit until 2023.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6529 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Climate Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk of Flooding for the Ohio & Mississippi River Valleys in Early March.

The Drought Feedback may start to show itself unless the pattern breaks.


The PDO remains negative. It has a very strong correlation to our short, medium, and long term rainfall patterns. We'll get spouts of rain/qpf but in general they will be modest at best through spring followed by longer periods of below normal precipitation. Expect 2022 to be a relatively dry year that began the second half of 2021.

It can be reversed if the PDO flips due to an El Nino but at this time that's a low probability. If it does happen we won't benefit until 2023.

The PDO is below -3, the most Negative since the 1950s
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6530 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 26, 2022 9:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Interesting for DFW the late month cold snap departures were greater than the early month chill. February will close out well below normal. Even though a warm up is in store, ENs suggest the first couple of weeks in March will be below normal. It has been a winter notorious for the complete reversal from December to Jan and Feb.

What do you think of the March 8-10 timeframe? Looks to be colder. Perhaps winter's last caress?


I wouldn't say last grasp. But likely another surge of anomalous cold relative to March. EPS and GEFS tanks the EPO and drives some cold in the same areas middle continent. It's blizzard time for Amarillo and Western Oklahoma. The last 'gasp' for winter will be when the final warming of the SPV disperses what's left, which some years we label 'the easter cold snap.'


Yeah I'll be surprised if we don't at least get another threat up here. Its too early to be over here

Although I'm definitely looking forward to the warmer weather and honestly I'm fine if we don't get another one but still
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6531 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:
Don’t look now, but your latest “winter is over for Texas” forecast may have unraveled less than 12 hours later, my friend.

It doesn’t look like very much frozen precip, but Winter Weather Advisories are now up for DFW tomorrow morning.

Hang in there, this pesky February and the winter of 2021-22 will be over soon! :D


Mid to upper 30s and light rain isn't exactly a snow storm. Steadily warming temperatures will start tomorrow and continue through mid March. Winter is now over for D-FW area. We'll be in the 80s next weekend in Houston.


Winter is over? I think I heard that somewhere… :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6532 Postby jasons2k » Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:44 am

All I can say is I'm ready for Spring!! Haven't seen the sun in a week and these temps holding steady on the 30's and 40's with constant drizzle, clouds and rain is downright depressing! I could never live in a place like Seattle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6533 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 27, 2022 1:42 am

Right on cue the GFS with a storm up here and in Kansas beyond 300 hours
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6534 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:43 am

The best winter month is just about done. Has anyone created a Texas Spring thread? Just a couple more days before we switch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6535 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:56 pm

gpsnowman wrote:The best winter month is just about done. Has anyone created a Texas Spring thread? Just a couple more days before we switch.


Texas Spring 2022 thread has been created. Hopefully, our discussions will include some rain for Texas.

Texas Spring 2022: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=122545

If there is another winter storm threat in March—and we’ve had several good North Texas snow events in March during the 21st Century—then such winter weather can be discussed back here in the Texas Winter 2021-2022 thread.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6536 Postby wxman57 » Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:00 pm

Just FYI, there is a posting for a job opening for both a tropical and a non-tropical meteorologist in the "Off-Topic" thread. I posted it a few days ago and no-one has seen it yet.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=122542&sid=dbc3f7322b29b414294edece56bc5132
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6537 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:07 pm

Made it down to 28 this morning in Denison.

And on February 28. Kind of poetic ending to the month, I guess.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6538 Postby DallasAg » Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:15 pm

Looks like DFW will just barely miss out on cracking the Top 10 for coldest February average low. Feb 2022 average low will be 33.07. 10th place is 33.0. Last year averaged 31.4 - 5th coldest.

Interestingly only 2 of the Top 10 have occurred since 1965. The Top 10:

1 - 25.9 (1905)
2 - 27.3 (1899)
3 - 29.0 (1978)
4 - 30.2 (1936)
5 - 31.4 (2021)
6 - 31.5 (1929)
7 - 32.4 (1963)
8 - 32.5 (1964)
9 - 32.9 (1960)
10 - 33.0 (1947)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6539 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:01 pm

16 freezes in Feb for DFW is very impressive.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6540 Postby TropicalTundra » Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:16 freezes in Feb for DFW is very impressive.


Definitely a lot of good cold air this season but very dry and not much winter precip... Now for Spring season our main worry will most likely be the drought.
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