Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6481 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:07 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


I do believe that we're not seeing any more Major Winter Storm systems after the ThunderSleet event, could see minor winter weather events through Mid-March & maybe April, but, this is it.


I agree with the models - winter is over for Texas (freezing/frozen precip, anyway). Severe weather season is on the horizon.


Can we just have rain, skip the severe stuff, and go straight to Summer? I'll trade you a hot September into early October if you can not let us have severe weather...... Deal?


That sounds boring. I love severe weather. It excites me! But of course where I live we don’t really get tornadoes around here and if we do they’re pretty weak. In fact, I’ve never even seen a tornado in my life. I saw a funnel once but that’s it. We don’t really get bad hail around here either. Biggest hail I’ve seen here was maybe between marble and golf ball size.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6482 Postby Cerlin » Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:08 pm

Norman’s at 67 hours below freezing consecutively. It’s gonna be close for getting above freezing today but the relatively thick ice pack should help that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6483 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:41 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
And to think the Euro had you reaching a high of 77F yesterday from 48 hrs out/also had DFW with 0.40 inch precip ended up with 0.01 inch ….2 winters in a row of the worst model performances you’ll ever see, throw that model out with the garbage particularly during winter months. It is really really bad!


Yeah, as I posted here on Monday, I did not buy the front stalling just to our north as per the GFS & Euro. Cold, dense air just doesn't stop moving south near Houston.


If memory serves correct, you also posted a couple of weeks ago that you believed winter was over for the most part and Brent would be chasing tornadoes.

He might have been…if it weren’t for those darn snow plows getting in the way. :D


Lol that and the sheets of ice on some of these neighborhood streets :spam:

Not gonna lie I can't wait for those 60s next week
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6484 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:06 pm

So far the temp @ DFW has made it to 37, if it caps out there that 4 degrees below forecasted high. I also think over night temps will be 2 or 3 degrees cooler than advertised making it a better chance to see freezing precipitation across the area after midnight thru Noon Saturday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6485 Postby Portastorm » Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:09 pm

Not sure if this verifies for North Texas, but our local NWS office in New Braunfels had an interesting comment about the hi-res model QPF outputs lately:

"We`d like to advise against taking hi-res model ice accumulation maps at face value, as they've consistently been overblown this week and during most of our winter events this season."
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6486 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:19 pm

Portastorm wrote:Not sure if this verifies for North Texas, but our local NWS office in New Braunfels had an interesting comment about the hi-res model QPF outputs lately:

"We`d like to advise against taking hi-res model ice accumulation maps at face value, as they've consistently been overblown this week and during most of our winter events this season."


Accretion of ice is hard to model. With this last system, the models had too much qpf in many areas, so obviously that made the freezing rain outputs not match up. The prior storm for DFW, IIRC, a lot of areas received more precipitation than models were showing but it was mostly as sleet and not freezing rain.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6487 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:21 pm

Up to 30 here. If we stay below 32 degrees I do believe we will end up pretty close to 100 hours below freezing. Not bad. Got 0.7" of snow yesterday. It's already gone, but it was the pretty fluffy stuff.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6488 Postby Haris » Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:21 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:So far the temp @ DFW has made it to 37, if it caps out there that 4 degrees below forecasted high. I also think over night temps will be 2 or 3 degrees cooler than advertised making it a better chance to see freezing precipitation across the area after midnight thru Noon Saturday.

Temps in DFW are 4-5 colder than NAM, and 2-3 from HRRR. Bears watch
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6489 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:45 pm

After melting and getting a total over three days my rain bucket counted .03" of liquid since this storm started.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6490 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Feb 25, 2022 5:33 pm

There have been some reports of sleet in East Texas today. Temps are in the mid to upper 30s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6491 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:31 pm

My road got Plowed today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6492 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:40 pm

Looks like spring goes into full effect next week with rebounding temps and some severe threat on the horizon. 18z gfs looks to a show a couple at least low end events in the first half of March
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6493 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:30 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Looks like spring goes into full effect next week with rebounding temps and some severe threat on the horizon. 18z gfs looks to a show a couple at least low end events in the first half of March


...and we know what follows spring! The best season of the year!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6494 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:57 pm

WWA for Dallas County for tomorrow. Freezing rain maybe some sleet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6495 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:58 pm

Is anyone in DFW or around the metroplex getting any frozen precip? Radar looks interesting around there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6496 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:59 pm

gpsnowman wrote:WWA for Dallas County for tomorrow. Freezing rain maybe some sleet.


Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6497 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:01 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Is anyone in DFW or around the metroplex getting any frozen precip? Radar looks interesting around there.

Still above freezing here but we are now under a WWA from 4 to 12 noon tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6498 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Looks like spring goes into full effect next week with rebounding temps and some severe threat on the horizon. 18z gfs looks to a show a couple at least low end events in the first half of March


...and we know what follows spring! The best season of the year!


I think you’re slightly outnumbered on that on this board.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6499 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:06 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Is anyone in DFW or around the metroplex getting any frozen precip? Radar looks interesting around there.


Lower levels are pretty dry, surface is above freezing and there is only a very thin subfreezing layer above the surface before going back above freezing. Probably will take some time to saturate before anything can make it to the ground.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6500 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:07 pm

My wife has an event in the morning to attend at 10. Is it safe? That WWA came out of nowhere. I thought it would not cause travel issues based on what I saw yesterday. They seem to have ramped up.
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