Texas Winter 2021-2022
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
AUS/SAT NWS starting to jump on board with winter precip now for Thursday/early Friday timeframe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Another day this week high in the 20s up here and no moisture
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#neversummer
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote:Another day this week high in the 20s up here and no moisture
I do have a 30% chance of Light Snow & highs in the Mid 20s.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1642420800/1643112000-y04LuPWxsiI.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1642420800/1643198400-WjM7utaeGbM.png
Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Brent wrote:Another day this week high in the 20s up here and no moisture
I do have a 30% chance of Light Snow & highs in the Mid 20s.
Still lacking real moisture up here in what is otherwise a good pattern. I mean maybe we can get some flurries but we can't get much beyond that
But places east of us have no problem
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#neversummer
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1642420800/1643112000-y04LuPWxsiI.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1642420800/1643198400-WjM7utaeGbM.png
Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?
The PNA is expected to become more Neutral
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:If this coming weekend is a swing and miss, then it will probably take a bit before our next window as the pattern starts a reset. What does Pacific forcing do beyond Week 2?
Pretty big adjustment but supported by the last 24hrs of ensemble data.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1642420800/1643112000-y04LuPWxsiI.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1642420800/1643198400-WjM7utaeGbM.png
Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?
Shoot Reload Repeat...and the good news is the trajectory may change more towards the central/southern plains soon!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1642420800/1643112000-y04LuPWxsiI.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1642420800/1643198400-WjM7utaeGbM.png
Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?
The PNA is expected to become more Neutral
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
A neutral PNA can’t get here soon enough. West coast has had fun this winter and the east is now. The center of the nation hasn’t had crap yet.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cpv17 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?
The PNA is expected to become more Neutral
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
A neutral PNA can’t get here soon enough. West coast has had fun this winter and the east is now. The center of the nation hasn’t had crap yet.
The West Coast had fun in December
The East Coast in January
Could we have our turn to have a lot of snow in February??
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Someone needs to get a spare tire for the GFS to get right back on track!
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1483152744487829508
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1483152744487829508
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
The PNA is expected to become more Neutral
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
A neutral PNA can’t get here soon enough. West coast has had fun this winter and the east is now. The center of the nation hasn’t had crap yet.
The West Coast had fun in December
The East Coast in January
Could we have our turn to have a lot of snow in February??
We better is all I'm gonna say
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
A neutral PNA can’t get here soon enough. West coast has had fun this winter and the east is now. The center of the nation hasn’t had crap yet.
The West Coast had fun in December
The East Coast in January
Could we have our turn to have a lot of snow in February??
We better is all I'm gonna say
Since you moved from what, Alabama? Your time in Texas didn’t do much for you and so far OK has been a dud too. Feel kinda bad for you lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
The West Coast had fun in December
The East Coast in January
Could we have our turn to have a lot of snow in February??
We better is all I'm gonna say
Since you moved from what, Alabama? Your time in Texas didn’t do much for you and so far OK has been a dud too. Feel kinda bad for you lol
Yeah this winter will probably get an F if we don't get a snowstorm this isn't Alabama or Dallas
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#neversummer
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:
We better is all I'm gonna say
Since you moved from what, Alabama? Your time in Texas didn’t do much for you and so far OK has been a dud too. Feel kinda bad for you lol
Yeah this winter will probably get an F if we don't get a snowstorm this isn't Alabama or Dallas
All it takes is one storm for this winter to pass the Winter Grading system.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Since you moved from what, Alabama? Your time in Texas didn’t do much for you and so far OK has been a dud too. Feel kinda bad for you lol
Yeah this winter will probably get an F if we don't get a snowstorm this isn't Alabama or Dallas
All it takes is one storm for this winter to pass the Winter Grading system.
Oh I agree and there's plenty of winter left luckily
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
We dont want anything to do with December's pattern or its game over lol. -pna is ok, but not off the charts negative.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
0z gfs lost its mind. 7 days out again.
Will say this is the same period CMC lost its mind earlier today.
Will say this is the same period CMC lost its mind earlier today.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:0z gfs lost its mind. 7 days out again.
Will say this is the same period CMC lost its mind earlier today.
How so?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:0z gfs lost its mind. 7 days out again.
Will say this is the same period CMC lost its mind earlier today.
Looks more like day 8-9 but still
Eventually one of these storms has to pan out? And actually have moisture?
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