Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

Do I dare get excited for another potential storm? I'm kind of conflicted on how I want this setup to play out. A more amplified system would give the potential for some crazy snow amounts with blizzard conditions, but that scenario is going to produce a narrow band with someone getting dry slotted and the rest of us get rain (Which isn't a bad thing, but still I'd like snow). Right now models are hinting at some efficient snow growth. I'd take the 12z ECMWF Kuchera snow totals but shifted south so that winter storm warnings go up from I-70 down to I-20. A spread the wealth system would be so much better for our region.

[Iceresistance]

This may not be Southern Plains related, but 12z Euro has 40 inches of snow in Massachusetts for the upcoming Nor'Easter


(Southern Plains related): Check out the CPC Temperature map, Heat Miser really needs to get his Hypersonic Jet Filled up to fly to Australia!

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 WAPP has a low of 18F, 60% chance of snow and 1-3 expected.... for Ponder next Wednesday evening.

What model is that using?

[Ntxw]

Fox 4 WAPP has a low of 18F, 60% chance of snow and 1-3 expected.... for Ponder next Wednesday evening.

What model is that using?

GFS probably. Signal for cold air next week is strong. Get snow and ice on the ground and some may go single digits. The regional WFOs are gaining confidence. Analog sets suggests so as well.

[Brent]

Watched a different channel at 6... Four days below freezing and a low of 8 was the coldest he had a more extreme forecast than the other channel I watched. I just hope if it's that cold theres snow on the ground because it's gonna absolutely suck otherwise

TWC app has 3-5 inches

[Iceresistance]

Watched a different channel at 6... Four days below freezing and a low of 8 was the coldest I just hope if it's that cold theres snow on the ground because it's gonna absolutely suck otherwise

TWC app has 3-5 inches

Yep, Newson6, News 9's Sister Station at Tulsa.

There is too much uncertainty regarding the storm system's location.

[Brent]

Watched a different channel at 6... Four days below freezing and a low of 8 was the coldest I just hope if it's that cold theres snow on the ground because it's gonna absolutely suck otherwise

TWC app has 3-5 inches

Yep, Newson6, News 9's Sister Station at Tulsa.

There is too much uncertainty regarding the storm system's location.

I mean it is still 5-6 days out so I'm not surprised there

Im a little surprised to see them so bullish so soon

[Iceresistance]

Watched a different channel at 6... Four days below freezing and a low of 8 was the coldest I just hope if it's that cold theres snow on the ground because it's gonna absolutely suck otherwise

TWC app has 3-5 inches

Yep, Newson6, News 9's Sister Station at Tulsa.

There is too much uncertainty regarding the storm system's location.

I mean it is still 5-6 days out so I'm not surprised there

Im a little surprised to see them so bullish so soon

KFOR first took note of this a few days ago, they have backed off a little bit, but the potential is still there.

KOCO 5 is being extremely conservative right now, refusing to have the low lower than 10°F

[Texas Snow]

KOCO 5 is being extremely conservative right now, refusing to have the low lower than 10°F

Being this far out, they would probably prefer the term responsible forecasting.

[Brent]

Yep, Newson6, News 9's Sister Station at Tulsa.

There is too much uncertainty regarding the storm system's location.

I mean it is still 5-6 days out so I'm not surprised there

Im a little surprised to see them so bullish so soon

KFOR first took note of this a few days ago, they have backed off a little bit, but the potential is still there.

KOCO 5 is being extremely conservative right now, refusing to have the low lower than 10°F

I noticed our ABC station wasn't nearly as cold either NBC and CBS are the most hyped here so far

Also the weather apps aren't super cold either yet even with the snow forecast. Only a high of 31 which we've been colder with zero snow

But that could also be because it's so far out still

[Cpv17]

I mean it is still 5-6 days out so I'm not surprised there

Im a little surprised to see them so bullish so soon

KFOR first took note of this a few days ago, they have backed off a little bit, but the potential is still there.

KOCO 5 is being extremely conservative right now, refusing to have the low lower than 10°F

I noticed our ABC station wasn't nearly as cold either NBC and CBS are the most hyped here so far

Also the weather apps aren't super cold either yet even with the snow forecast. Only a high of 31 which we've been colder with zero snow

But that could also be because it's so far out still

They’re always conservative this far out.

[Ntxw]

Natural Gas Market just went off the rails with that Euro Run....up over 60% from $4.50 to over $6.50 per MMBTU

That’s a larger jump than last year, initially.

Hopefully just a brief intraday spike related to EOM expiration on futures contracts...although if GFS/Euro run comes close to verifying, Heating Degree days across the lower 48 will go ballistic

I hope the state is ready. You have a very good lead warning from most of the guidance. -20 to -30F departures is cold in any winter and puts strain in the system. You go more than that and given the landscape right now with shortages it will hurt more than last winter.

[Brent]

That’s a larger jump than last year, initially.

Hopefully just a brief intraday spike related to EOM expiration on futures contracts...although if GFS/Euro run comes close to verifying, Heating Degree days across the lower 48 will go ballistic

I hope the state is ready. You have a very good lead warning from most of the guidance. -20 to -30F departures is cold in any winter and puts strain in the system. You go more than that and given the landscape right now with shortages it will hurt more than last winter.

At least so far the much beloved and apparently only model they care about Euro is also pretty cold

[Haris]

ICON lol

[cheezyWXguy]

0z icon still on board with a major ice storm across north Texas. I have to admit, it took me a long time to buy into its credibility, but it’s handling of the system last January (insisted on a storm track too far south for dfw to cash in, even when others were showing dfw getting the bulk) and the February systems, I’ve had no choice but to acknowledge it. Its consistency is a bit concerning.

[txtwister78]

ICON lol

Looking to shut a good chunk of Texas down with an Ice Storm and then leaves some good energy/ULL out to the west for snow storm across W TX.

[Ntxw]

0z icon still on board with a major ice storm across north Texas. I have to admit, it took me a long time to buy into its credibility, but it’s handling of the system last January (insisted on a storm track too far south for dfw to cash in, even when others were showing dfw getting the bulk) and the February systems, I’ve had no choice but to acknowledge it. Its consistency is a bit concerning.

Twister noted earlier, and it is fairly true, the ICON is usually quite conservative with qpf as is.

[txtwister78]

0z icon still on board with a major ice storm across north Texas. I have to admit, it took me a long time to buy into its credibility, but it’s handling of the system last January (insisted on a storm track too far south for dfw to cash in, even when others were showing dfw getting the bulk) and the February systems, I’ve had no choice but to acknowledge it. Its consistency is a bit concerning.

Twister noted earlier, and it is fairly true, the ICON is usually quite conservative with qpf as is.

Yeah when you can get the ICON to start coming in hot in the 6-7 day range that's saying something with that model.

[Brent]

[Texas Snow]

Unlike most I actually don’t mind a little ice if I can’t get snow or sleet. The icon would be the most crippling ice storm most of us have ever seen. No thanks.