Texas Winter 2021-2022

[HockeyTx82]

How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contourseeebee28a3f3c855.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contourseeebee28a3f3c855.png

Because it's 2 weeks out, experimental and the way winter is going why get emotionally involved. And it's not even for Texas.....

I do want to point out that the risk of Heavy Snow has moved further South, last time, it was in NE Kansas, now it's at the OK/KS Border.

I do admire your enthusiasm and passion. I think us older folks, I'm turning 40 this year, have had too many ups and downs with winter weather. I've lived in DFW my enitre life. When I was your age you are now we did not have the tools as our disposal via the internet to do what we do now on this board. You basically watched the local news and even then they were wrong when it came to snow. It's a great time to be alive but as wxman57 has proven time and time again 2 weeks out is garbage. Over the years as you experience weather events you will gain knowledge from that and be a better weatherman for it.

[Iceresistance]

Sunday-Monday is looking very good from the WPC


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/d13_fill.gif

[bubba hotep]

Icon snows west of DFW this week. Looks like Abilene bullseye this run.

Sneaky shortwave.

Rgem and nam are pretty close. HP up north feeding CAA while separation of Lower heights to the NE.

The Euro EPS has one of the stronger signals this winter, with close to 50% of members showing snow for North TX and Oklahoma in that same timeframe centered on the 27th & 28th.

[Iceresistance]

Icon snows west of DFW this week. Looks like Abilene bullseye this run.

Sneaky shortwave.

Rgem and nam are pretty close. HP up north feeding CAA while separation of Lower heights to the NE.

The Euro EPS has one of the stronger signals this winter, with close to 50% of members showing snow for North TX and Oklahoma in that same timeframe centered on the 27th & 28th.

15/20 (75%) Members have snow for Oklahoma &/or Texas mostly around the 26th-28th on the 6z GEFS.

[Ntxw]

GFS OP has seen some shifts to favorable the past few cycles. It's starting to hold more back and increasing HP strength.

[bubba hotep]

Big change on the 12z GFS. With so many s/w in the flow, It's hard to tell if this is a new s/w or just more energy hanging back.

12z



vs. 00z

[Ntxw]

Big change on the 12z GFS. With so many s/w in the flow, It's hard to tell if this is a new s/w or just more energy hanging back.

12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012212/gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

vs. 00z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012200/gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

There was some chaotic in the flow end of February, 2015. Couple of events that culminated in a surprise snow on the 27th that was largely forecasted to be in the higher elevation of west Texas. Snow bands came through and persisted resulting in the a few inches.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20150224.html

[bubba hotep]

12z CMC looks good at 96hrs but shears this out across Texas over the following few panels.

[Iceresistance]

I do want to point out that some 12z GEFS Members has a Secondary system from Thursday to Friday

[Haris]

Euro gets close

[Haris]

Sunday-Monday is looking very good from the WPC

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/d13_fill.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/d13_fill.gif

Not really. Trends have been drier. That’s only a quarter inch or so for CTX which is nothing for drought

[WinterMax]

I do want to point out that some 12z GEFS Members has a Secondary system from Thursday to Friday

NWS out of Lake Charles La is giving a 20% chance of snow here in South Central Louisiana thursday night, I just figured it was a mistake.

[rwfromkansas]

Because it's 2 weeks out, experimental and the way winter is going why get emotionally involved. And it's not even for Texas.....

I do want to point out that the risk of Heavy Snow has moved further South, last time, it was in NE Kansas, now it's at the OK/KS Border.

I do admire your enthusiasm and passion. I think us older folks, I'm turning 40 this year, have had too many ups and downs with winter weather. I've lived in DFW my enitre life. When I was your age you are now we did not have the tools as our disposal via the internet to do what we do now on this board. You basically watched the local news and even then they were wrong when it came to snow. It's a great time to be alive but as wxman57 has proven time and time again 2 weeks out is garbage. Over the years as you experience weather events you will gain knowledge from that and be a better weatherman for it.

I remember the early days of model watching. It was fun, but man, they were often so wrong and had last-minute shifts all the time. I started really getting into weather around 2000…roughly age 18 also. Geez, feel old now. I don’t know how 20 years can go by so fast anymore.

[Brent]

12z CMC looks good at 96hrs but shears this out across Texas over the following few panels.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022012212/gem_z500_vort_us_17.png

Why does everything keep falling apart? Bet it blows up east of us again I'm over it

[HockeyTx82]

I do want to point out that the risk of Heavy Snow has moved further South, last time, it was in NE Kansas, now it's at the OK/KS Border.

I do admire your enthusiasm and passion. I think us older folks, I'm turning 40 this year, have had too many ups and downs with winter weather. I've lived in DFW my enitre life. When I was your age you are now we did not have the tools as our disposal via the internet to do what we do now on this board. You basically watched the local news and even then they were wrong when it came to snow. It's a great time to be alive but as wxman57 has proven time and time again 2 weeks out is garbage. Over the years as you experience weather events you will gain knowledge from that and be a better weatherman for it.

I remember the early days of model watching. It was fun, but man, they were often so wrong and had last-minute shifts all the time. I started really getting into weather around 2000…roughly age 18 also. Geez, feel old now. I don’t know how 20 years can go by so fast anymore.

I hear that. Blink of an eye it seems like. I will say I am very blessed to still have my amost 96 year old grandma still with us and very much still there mentally. The stories of Winter storms growing up in Iowa would make all of you envious. My grandfather, God rest his soul, worked on the Alaskan Highway project. It was so cold your lungs would freeze if went outside some days from what he told me. They did not have the gear we do today either. He grew up on a farm in Missouri and had all kinds of wild weather stories he shared with me. He was also a B-25 Bomber pilot in the Pacific during WW2.

I can't imagine what 20 years feels like when you are almost 96 years old. When you are little 10 min seems forever. When you get older times flys by.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I do admire your enthusiasm and passion. I think us older folks, I'm turning 40 this year, have had too many ups and downs with winter weather. I've lived in DFW my enitre life. When I was your age you are now we did not have the tools as our disposal via the internet to do what we do now on this board. You basically watched the local news and even then they were wrong when it came to snow. It's a great time to be alive but as wxman57 has proven time and time again 2 weeks out is garbage. Over the years as you experience weather events you will gain knowledge from that and be a better weatherman for it.

I remember the early days of model watching. It was fun, but man, they were often so wrong and had last-minute shifts all the time. I started really getting into weather around 2000…roughly age 18 also. Geez, feel old now. I don’t know how 20 years can go by so fast anymore.

I hear that. Blink of an eye it seems like. I will say I am very blessed to still have my amost 96 year old grandma still with us and very much still there mentally. The stories of Winter storms growing up in Iowa would make all of you envious. My grandfather, God rest his soul, worked on the Alaskan Highway project. It was so cold your lungs would freeze if went outside some days from what he told me. They did not have the gear we do today either. He grew up on a farm in Missouri and had all kinds of wild weather stories he shared with me. He was also a B-25 Bomber pilot in the Pacific during WW2.

I can't imagine what 20 years feels like when you are almost 96 years old. When you are little 10 min seems forever. When you get older times flys by.

Great post. That generation was so much tougher and wiser than the Boomers and especially the younger generations.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I remember the early days of model watching. It was fun, but man, they were often so wrong and had last-minute shifts all the time. I started really getting into weather around 2000…roughly age 18 also. Geez, feel old now. I don’t know how 20 years can go by so fast anymore.

I hear that. Blink of an eye it seems like. I will say I am very blessed to still have my amost 96 year old grandma still with us and very much still there mentally. The stories of Winter storms growing up in Iowa would make all of you envious. My grandfather, God rest his soul, worked on the Alaskan Highway project. It was so cold your lungs would freeze if went outside some days from what he told me. They did not have the gear we do today either. He grew up on a farm in Missouri and had all kinds of wild weather stories he shared with me. He was also a B-25 Bomber pilot in the Pacific during WW2.

I can't imagine what 20 years feels like when you are almost 96 years old. When you are little 10 min seems forever. When you get older times flys by.

Great post. That generation was so much tougher and wiser than the Boomers and especially the younger generations.

Let’s get back on topic. Gfs run 18z shows a little snow around southeast Texas. The current pattern does support these kinds of events.

[Iceresistance]

The MJO is giving the models an absolute fit, I don't trust even 5 days out anymore until the MJO is back in action.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The MJO is giving the models an absolute fit, I don't trust even 5 days out anymore until the MJO is back in action.

When the MJO is in the circle of the uncertainty the models have an extremely low accuracy outside of a few days.

[Iceresistance]

BenNollWeather likes the East Coast snow, but he's seeing a pattern flip in February

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1484203818820771842