Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gpsnowman]

A couple of potential record warmth days ahead. Not good. An a/c day potentially on Friday? Please no, not this time of year.

[Iceresistance]

-30 degrees in Canada at the end of that 12z GFS...sign me up!

I see down to -40 in Canada & down to the Mid-30s below Zero at the USA/Canada Border at the end of the 12z GFS

[Iceresistance]

A couple of potential record warmth days ahead. Not good. An a/c day potentially on Friday? Please no, not this time of year.

Up to the upper 70s AGAIN Friday, but I believe there were similarities just last year as well . . .

[Brent]

A couple of potential record warmth days ahead. Not good. An a/c day potentially on Friday? Please no, not this time of year.

Up to the upper 70s AGAIN Friday, but I believe there were similarities just last year as well . . .

Yeah like I said last night our threatened records this week are from last year

Kind of makes you wonder

There's actually a low above 60 forecast next week here that might be more newsworthy but the weather apps show next week being short lived and more normal beyond that

[Iceresistance]

A couple of potential record warmth days ahead. Not good. An a/c day potentially on Friday? Please no, not this time of year.

Up to the upper 70s AGAIN Friday, but I believe there were similarities just last year as well . . .

Yeah like I said last night our threatened records this week are from last year

Kind of makes you wonder

Last Year had snowstorms in December after the record highs, so maybe we have that again this year?

[Haris]

Up to the upper 70s AGAIN Friday, but I believe there were similarities just last year as well . . .

Yeah like I said last night our threatened records this week are from last year

Kind of makes you wonder

Last Year had snowstorms in December after the record highs, so maybe we have that again this year?

I wish it were that simple

[bubba hotep]

First signs that they are picking up on the coming pattern change:

[WacoWx]

Hawaii getting NO love.

[Brent]

Yeah like I said last night our threatened records this week are from last year

Kind of makes you wonder

Last Year had snowstorms in December after the record highs, so maybe we have that again this year?

I wish it were that simple

Yeah and to be fair the whole lower 48 wasn't torching last December like this year so it is different

But even still I do see signs of a pattern change towards or beyond Christmas

[bubba hotep]

Hey Storm2k Winter gang, hope everyone is doing well, it's been awhile!!...boring start to winter so far but as previous posters have been discussing, things are looking really promising towards end of month/start of New Year. EPO/WPO tank, MJO 7-8-1 with brutal cold building in Western Canada. What's not to like ???

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1638921600-A0UeAB7uLeMgrb2.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_stream/1638921600/1640217600-nfJQCceiL6Q.png

I've been watching this and was planning to post something today but glad you stepped up!

We are now seeing convection on the move in the WPAC. We will want to see convection continue to move from the Maritime Continent/NW Australia out into the WPAC, where it can start to destructively interfere with the +ENSO background state. We'll also want to see the Pacific Jet shift equatorward in time and that combined with an active MJO should set the stage for a cold dump into the Southern Plains. Until then, we have a retracted poleward shifted Pacific Jet and that projects nicely onto the warm pattern we are about to see.





But with change coming to the Pacific, I'm confident for the first time this cool season that we are about to see some legit winter temps unleashed

[Cpv17]

-30 degrees in Canada at the end of that 12z GFS...sign me up!

I see down to -40 in Canada & down to the Mid-30s below Zero at the USA/Canada Border at the end of the 12z GFS

Not too long ago on one of the runs of the GFS I saw a -44 in northern Montana.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS has a 1077mb high in Greenland in about 10 days..wtf?

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS has a 1077mb high in Greenland in about 10 days..wtf?

That's near Record levels! The highest ever recorded was 1084 MB

[wxman57]

The 18z GFS has a 1077mb high in Greenland in about 10 days..wtf?

That's near Record levels! The highest ever recorded was 1084 MB

If I remember correctly, last week the GFS was predicting a 1060mb high over Colorado with this coming weekend's front. Nope.

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS has a 1077mb high in Greenland in about 10 days..wtf?

That's near Record levels! The highest ever recorded was 1084 MB

If I remember correctly, last week the GFS was predicting a 1060mb high over Colorado with this coming weekend's front. Nope.

Yes, there was a 1060 MB high that was predicted over Colorado last week for this weekend, I knew it was very unlikely, but there's always a chance of something like this to really happen.

[NDG]

Something to keep in mind, the Euro's extended MJO forecast is not in a big hurry moving the MJO out of the western Pacific while the GFS ensembles has been too progressive with it.
I'm with wxman57, I don't believe anything the GFS shows past 5-7 days, IMO. At least timewise with a pattern change, if it happens.

[Iceresistance]

MJO now in Phase 7


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/MJO-in-Phase-8.gif

EDIT: I meant to say Phase 7, why did I say Phase 8 so much?

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20

[harp]

@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20

The GFS continues to hint at this every few runs or so….

[HockeyTx82]

@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20

Is he talking east coast bias speak or east of the rockies including Texas?