Texas Winter 2021-2022

[snowballzzz]

6Z GFS shows north/central TX barely getting above freezing on Christmas Eve. Still way too far out but the trends are going in the right direction.

[Rgv20]

Forecast high of 87 today and 89 tomorrow...this is not right

[Iceresistance]

Forecast high of 87 today and 89 tomorrow...this is not right

Mid to Upper 70s expected for my area today & Tomorrow, but this will change for my area this coming weekend.

[Ntxw]

MJO now in Phase 7

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/MJO-in-Phase-8.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/MJO-in-Phase-8.gif

EDIT: I meant to say Phase 7, why did I say Phase 8 so much?

Indeed sir the MJO has finally left the coop. After weeks of looping around p4-6 it has now left that building.

[Iceresistance]

@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20

I've alerted the School Officials about this, they will make an announcement about that Next Wednesday if this trend continues.

[Ntxw]

Also we don't really need a fast moving MJO or any kind of monster EPO. It just needs to not fight it. We have a lot of cold sitting in Alaska and Canada that only needs a small opening to flood it out.

But until then we now are sitting in the well advertised torch pattern.

[lrak]

Forecast high of 87 today and 89 tomorrow...this is not right

I feel your pain Rgv20. My A/C has been on since last March. We need a big cold snap to cool the GOM.

[gboudx]

@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20

I've alerted the School Officials about this, they will make an announcement about that Next Wednesday if this trend continues.

The thing with JB is he may be referring to his area specifically. Without more info, it's hard to know how wide he's casting that net.

[Iceresistance]

@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20

I've alerted the School Officials about this, they will make an announcement about that Next Wednesday if this trend continues.

The thing with JB is he may be referring to his area specifically. Without more info, it's hard to know how wide he's casting that net.

Either way, if the PNA is still negative (As the Climate Prediction Center has been showing), we could be the impact zone for the Cold.

[Golf7270]

I think it will be after Christmas before it does get cold if its going to here. Not sure what you guys believe.

[Iceresistance]

I think it will be after Christmas before it does get cold if its going to here. Not sure what you guys believe.

It will be at Christmas at it's earliest, but it's most likely to be after Christmas.

[Cerlin]

Teleconnections are very interesting for the end of this month. PNA is continuing to trend negative as well as the EPO (for now), NAO, and AO. Not only does this just signal cold air, but it signals widespread cold air. I’m not the best with teleconnections but that would imply to me that there’s going to be a battle between the negative PNA trying to direct air toward the rockies and the negative EPO/NAO trying to spill the cold into the east, which should put the plains right in the sweet spot.

[Golf7270]

Teleconnections are very interesting for the end of this month. PNA is continuing to trend negative as well as the EPO (for now), NAO, and AO. Not only does this just signal cold air, but it signals widespread cold air. I’m not the best with teleconnections but that would imply to me that there’s going to be a battle between the negative PNA trying to direct air toward the rockies and the negative EPO/NAO trying to spill the cold into the east, which should put the plains right in the sweet spot.

Pay attention to the euro ensembles because they usually have a better track record with those teleconnections imo. Definitely want to see the epo go negative if it can.

[orangeblood]

@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20

I've alerted the School Officials about this, they will make an announcement about that Next Wednesday if this trend continues.

The thing with JB is he may be referring to his area specifically. Without more info, it's hard to know how wide he's casting that net.

Here are great MJO temp composites of what you typically see during this time of year....as you can see 8-1-2 is prime for most widespread cold!

[cheezyWXguy]

@BigJoeBastardi — MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20

I've alerted the School Officials about this, they will make an announcement about that Next Wednesday if this trend continues.

The thing with JB is he may be referring to his area specifically. Without more info, it's hard to know how wide he's casting that net.

Or how much he’s overstating what he can catch…

[Ntxw]

12z GFS ends the warm party a little early with a good front behind a strong system on the 20th. Definitely liking the trend over the EPO region.

Alaska is warming up and Canada is well loaded with frigid air. Get that Pacific ridge to pop over Alaska and we could talk severe cold.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is showing Rain/Snow mix for SE Texas by Christmas Week

[harp]

12z GFS is showing Rain/Snow mix for SE Texas by Christmas Week

What frame is that? I don’t see it yet.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is showing Rain/Snow mix for SE Texas by Christmas Week

What frame is that? I don’t see it yet.

+288 Hours, towards Houston, TX

[HockeyTx82]

12z GFS is showing Rain/Snow mix for SE Texas by Christmas Week

What frame is that? I don’t see it yet.

+288 Hours, towards Houston, TX

Lock it in.... it's got to be correct now