Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2921 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:03 am

Brent wrote:GFS has that midweek wave trying to be interesting up here again. Definitely some accumulating snow


Oh yes, I'm expecting a good amount of snow from the 0z GFS
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2922 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:08 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:GFS has that midweek wave trying to be interesting up here again. Definitely some accumulating snow


Oh yes, I'm expecting a good amount of snow from the 0z GFS


Well see if it holds up I dunno yet :lol: how do the ensembles look

Also the day 10 CMC has a winter storm developing
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2923 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:09 am

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:GFS has that midweek wave trying to be interesting up here again. Definitely some accumulating snow


Oh yes, I'm expecting a good amount of snow from the 0z GFS


Well see if it holds up I dunno yet :lol: how do the ensembles look

Also the day 10 CMC has a winter storm developing


The GEFS does have a snowfall signal, but not much snow.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2924 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:33 am

February is almost always the month for Texas winter weather...can it deliver this year ? Long Range guidance is definitely looking promising. With Arctic Cold pressing/Southeast Ridge popping back up, this could set a favorable battle ground from the Southern Plains to Great Lakes. Here are the 5 day anomalies for both Temp and Precip to start February

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2925 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:46 am

Weather looks mostly "normal", temperature-wise over the next couple of weeks. We'll likely see the 70s for a few days next week, maybe low 60s over the coming weekend. That may allow me to escape my electric blanket for a bit. No significant winter weather for TX the next couple of weeks. No freezes for Houston indicated. I got a half inch of rain with the front last week, and it's raining this morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2926 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:05 am

wxman57 wrote:Weather looks mostly "normal", temperature-wise over the next couple of weeks. We'll likely see the 70s for a few days next week, maybe low 60s over the coming weekend. That may allow me to escape my electric blanket for a bit. No significant winter weather for TX the next couple of weeks. No freezes for Houston indicated. I got a half inch of rain with the front last week, and it's raining this morning.


GEFS members say otherwise....numerous members really aggressive on winter weather starting the 1st week of Feb

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2927 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:14 am

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Weather looks mostly "normal", temperature-wise over the next couple of weeks. We'll likely see the 70s for a few days next week, maybe low 60s over the coming weekend. That may allow me to escape my electric blanket for a bit. No significant winter weather for TX the next couple of weeks. No freezes for Houston indicated. I got a half inch of rain with the front last week, and it's raining this morning.


GEFS members say otherwise....numerous members really aggressive on winter weather starting the 1st week of Feb

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643004000/1643868000-HK5TNwnI7kw.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643004000/1644084000-rLnRjLH4fBw.png


Well, I don't know if 3-5 members out of 30 = numerous. The vast majority 80%+ indicate nothing significant. Looking like rapid zonal flow in the GFS & Euro without much deep cold air around.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2928 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:27 am

FWD says not to expect anything Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2929 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:52 am

12z GFS is showing a Secondary system with Rain/Snow mix just after the first system across Oklahoma Thursday Night-Friday.

Also Jeez on the long range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2930 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Weather looks mostly "normal", temperature-wise over the next couple of weeks. We'll likely see the 70s for a few days next week, maybe low 60s over the coming weekend. That may allow me to escape my electric blanket for a bit. No significant winter weather for TX the next couple of weeks. No freezes for Houston indicated. I got a half inch of rain with the front last week, and it's raining this morning.


GEFS members say otherwise....numerous members really aggressive on winter weather starting the 1st week of Feb

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643004000/1643868000-HK5TNwnI7kw.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643004000/1644084000-rLnRjLH4fBw.png


Well, I don't know if 3-5 members out of 30 = numerous. The vast majority 80%+ indicate nothing significant. Looking like rapid zonal flow in the GFS & Euro without much deep cold air around.


And how many times over the years have we seen the Operational Models (besides the Canadian) not have a clue how to handle shallow Arctic Airmasses ?? This 5H chart is almost textbook for ice/sleet in the southern plains...Polar Jet screaming due south out of the Arctic Circle, PV heading towards Great Lakes and UL Trough digging into So Cal.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2931 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:37 pm

We did see how the GEFS really overestimated the winter threat last week and caved last min, so I am pretty reserved of what its showing. That said, I'd love a change in Feb
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2932 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:04 pm

Haris wrote:We did see how the GEFS really overestimated the winter threat last week and caved last min, so I am pretty reserved of what its showing. That said, I'd love a change in Feb


Agreed. Anything beyond 5 days to me is suspect at this point. I think with the SE ridge likely to come back in some form, the key will be how much of that is pushed into TX and how strong is it in terms of pattern influence like we saw in December. Yes, the cold may try to push across the NW and plains but how far south can it go before meeting resistance/moderating is obviously going to be key. Perhaps a positive would be more precip if we can get a clash of airmasses and a more active SJ going but again at hour 240 it's really all speculative (the pattern in general) despite whatever the models are showing today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2933 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:24 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Haris wrote:We did see how the GEFS really overestimated the winter threat last week and caved last min, so I am pretty reserved of what its showing. That said, I'd love a change in Feb


Agreed. Anything beyond 5 days to me is suspect at this point. I think with the SE ridge likely to come back in some form, the key will be how much of that is pushed into TX and how strong is it in terms of pattern influence like we saw in December. Yes, the cold may try to push across the NW and plains but how far south can it go before meeting resistance/moderating is obviously going to be key. Perhaps a positive would be more precip if we can get a clash of airmasses and a more active SJ going but again at hour 240 it's really all speculative despite whatever the models are showing today.


Of course but would this board even exist without some form of speculation ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2934 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:45 pm

orangeblood wrote:Of course but would this board even exist without some form of speculation ?


We could just exchange snow pics.

Oh wait...
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2935 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:55 pm

orangeblood wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Haris wrote:We did see how the GEFS really overestimated the winter threat last week and caved last min, so I am pretty reserved of what its showing. That said, I'd love a change in Feb


Agreed. Anything beyond 5 days to me is suspect at this point. I think with the SE ridge likely to come back in some form, the key will be how much of that is pushed into TX and how strong is it in terms of pattern influence like we saw in December. Yes, the cold may try to push across the NW and plains but how far south can it go before meeting resistance/moderating is obviously going to be key. Perhaps a positive would be more precip if we can get a clash of airmasses and a more active SJ going but again at hour 240 it's really all speculative despite whatever the models are showing today.


Of course but would this board even exist without some form of speculation ?


No, I get it and I think we all want certain patterns like that with potential to deliver (minus one Individual perhaps who shall remain nameless), because it makes things more exciting/interesting on here for sure, but I also don't see anything wrong with mixing in a little weather "reality" as well from time to time while we wait. I mean don't get me wrong I would love to get on here every day and look at a GFS OP or ENS run and say that's the "big ticket storm for TX" 10 days out but for one I'm not that good and secondly, I know better just based on model error/correction along with pattern changes that can occur due to a variety of factors that are obviously unknown to us that far out.

On the flip, the fun part is also going out on a limb and being able to detect a pattern via recognition and saying, "this looks good". Nothing wrong with that either. I think Feb 2021 was that for me despite models being back and forth (even several days out). The source region was a good indicator along with what we were seeing on the 500 mb so what you posted may very well come to fruition next week or it may just end up being "another model output" 240 hours out. Definitely something to watch no doubt though as we move ahead.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2936 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:24 pm

If we want to talk about current weather, it appears DFW (and most of east Texas) is getting some much needed rain right now. If you can't have snow, a rain event is always a good backup plan.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2937 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:39 pm

Wednesday night trying to be interesting up here still

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2938 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:49 pm

Brent wrote:Wednesday night trying to be interesting up here still

https://i.ibb.co/8KNpVFb/image1-9.png


NWS-Norman has up to 1 inch of snow.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2939 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:07 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:Wednesday night trying to be interesting up here still

https://i.ibb.co/8KNpVFb/image1-9.png


NWS-Norman has up to 1 inch of snow.


It is the long range NAM but this looks interesting. Evidence of higher totals in bands. A sneaky setup maybe?

Image
Last edited by Brent on Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2940 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:10 pm

orangeblood wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Haris wrote:We did see how the GEFS really overestimated the winter threat last week and caved last min, so I am pretty reserved of what its showing. That said, I'd love a change in Feb


Agreed. Anything beyond 5 days to me is suspect at this point. I think with the SE ridge likely to come back in some form, the key will be how much of that is pushed into TX and how strong is it in terms of pattern influence like we saw in December. Yes, the cold may try to push across the NW and plains but how far south can it go before meeting resistance/moderating is obviously going to be key. Perhaps a positive would be more precip if we can get a clash of airmasses and a more active SJ going but again at hour 240 it's really all speculative despite whatever the models are showing today.


Of course but would this board even exist without some form of speculation ?


God love ya, orangeblood! Every winter you fight the good here and are usually one of our first members to spot a possible sign of hope in the long range. You're absolutely right about the nature of our speculative posts. I would guess that the majority of our time spent on this forum in winter is filled with just that ... speculation. So you just keep on, keeping on!

We all know wxman57 will keep us grounded in reality. So it's those moments when he actually gets bullish on Texas winter weather that we can get a smile on our face and know that something legit is very possible.

The Metroplexers need their winter storm. That's next on our To Do list. :wink:
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