The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Texas Snow wrote:Brent wrote:Tulsa doesn't seem overly excited right now but it is 5 days out
While this isn`t a classic heavy snow/ice setup, there
should at least be a long enough duration of precip in the cold
air to result in some accumulating ice and snow. Data continues to
point toward an advisory level event, but as mentioned earlier, a
lot can change between now and Wednesday. So stay tuned.
Norman on the other hand seems more concerned
Confidence is starting to
increase a bit with regards to winter weather impacts, perhaps
along and north of I-44, but obviously still too early to
determine how significant. If trends continue with a digging and
deeper trough to our west by Tue, expect impacts to increase area
wide.
FWD isn't as impressed with the current model trends as we are:
The next feature to watch will be a strong cold front and the low
chance for wintry precip arriving midweek. A longwave trough will
sweep through the CONUS, spilling much colder Arctic temperatures
into a large area of the U.S. behind it. The strong cold front is
progged to arrive to North & Central Texas on Wednesday, with
rain possible out ahead of the front. Along and behind the front,
there`s a low probability (20 to 30%) that precip in the form of a
rain/snow mix sets up, that will then completely transition to snow
in areas generally north of I-20 and west of I-35.
The key takeaways for next week`s systems are that precipitation
chances right now are low, and additionally, the overall synoptic
set-up isn`t very favorable for wintry precip with impactful
accumulations due to the progressiveness of the upper trough.
However, if ensembles trend towards an upper level trough that 1)
slows and digs or 2) is able to detach further south than what the
models are currently showing, concerns will begin to increase for
the potential for winter precipitation and resulting impacts
across the forecast area. There`s a low signal (less than 20%)
this will occur, but it bears watching as additional model runs
become available. As always with these systems, please be aware of
your forecast sources and use common sense before sharing
information.
They're probably waiting on the Euro and Canadian OP to flip. ENs says look for a flip to happen.
it's been on this Texas ice storm for several runs while the GFS and Euro have been what storm
