Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Crazy differences showing up on the longer term GEFS vs. Euro ENS....don't think I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy on a ENS Mean for a week 2 forecast
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
MJO is now expected to reemerge at Phase 4 in February.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Crazy differences showing up on the longer term GEFS vs. Euro ENS....don't think I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy on a ENS Mean for a week 2 forecast
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643068800/1644364800-mPOWBfyOxaU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643090400/1644408000-fzZ0DUVrz7Q.png
Euro looks a bit Nino-ish
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote:End of the Euro has a near blizzard in OK/KS and NW TX over a foot in western Oklahoma
https://i.ibb.co/2n8Xk1m/sn10-acc-us-c-4.png
Comparing the 00Z run to yesterday's 12Z EC, the previous run had only a weak low in SE Nebraska at the same time. Similar with the 00Z Monday run. The key will be the trend this week. GFS has that same low in northern Minnesota. Canadian has it in eastern Nebraska. Not a lot of agreement. Can I have my 70s and 80s back in Houston if there won't be any snow?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Brent wrote:End of the Euro has a near blizzard in OK/KS and NW TX over a foot in western Oklahoma
https://i.ibb.co/2n8Xk1m/sn10-acc-us-c-4.png
Comparing the 00Z run to yesterday's 12Z EC, the previous run had only a weak low in SE Nebraska at the same time. Similar with the 00Z Monday run. The key will be the trend this week. GFS has that same low in northern Minnesota. Canadian has it in eastern Nebraska. Not a lot of agreement. Can I have my 70s and 80s back in Houston if there won't be any snow?
Nah, we will concede August, but that's it.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Crazy differences showing up on the longer term GEFS vs. Euro ENS....don't think I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy on a ENS Mean for a week 2 forecast
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643068800/1644364800-mPOWBfyOxaU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643090400/1644408000-fzZ0DUVrz7Q.png
Both treat ridging in the Pacific different. Suspect that the MJO with split convection (lingering IDL flare won't go anyway soon now that nino 4 has warmed) causing confusion.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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- Tropical Storm
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Brent wrote:End of the Euro has a near blizzard in OK/KS and NW TX over a foot in western Oklahoma
https://i.ibb.co/2n8Xk1m/sn10-acc-us-c-4.png
Comparing the 00Z run to yesterday's 12Z EC, the previous run had only a weak low in SE Nebraska at the same time. Similar with the 00Z Monday run. The key will be the trend this week. GFS has that same low in northern Minnesota. Canadian has it in eastern Nebraska. Not a lot of agreement. Can I have my 70s and 80s back in Houston if there won't be any snow?
I'm so on board with this, too much inactivity for me with all of this cold soupy weather. It's 45 here in south Louisiana and a mist falling. Wind chill might be low 40s but feels like low 30s to my old bones.
Between now and Sunday only Thursday night will not have a freeze. If it won't snow I vote for 70 and sunny.
I'm ready for wxman57 kind of weather here
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:Crazy differences showing up on the longer term GEFS vs. Euro ENS....don't think I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy on a ENS Mean for a week 2 forecast
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643068800/1644364800-mPOWBfyOxaU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643090400/1644408000-fzZ0DUVrz7Q.png
Both treat ridging in the Pacific different. Suspect that the MJO with split convection (lingering IDL flare won't go anyway soon now that nino 4 has warmed) causing confusion.
Yep, EPO differences look like the main culprit. Something looks off with the Euro ENS...with such a massive negative anomaly near the Dateline, you'd think we'd see a bigger ridge across Alaska with more negative anomalies across Central US. If GEFS is right, semblance of Feb 2021 just missing Negative AO
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Different region but i just saw the 0z Euro..... I'm sure the weather mets are losing it with that Nor'Easter on the east coast.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
KWTV-News 9 has 1-2 inches of snow for Central Oklahoma, more likely in Snow Bands.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image0-3.jpg
[url][https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image1-11.jpg/url]
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image2-6.jpg
(Ignore some of the snowfall locations, it can be very finicky)
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image0-3.jpg
[url][https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image1-11.jpg/url]
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image2-6.jpg
(Ignore some of the snowfall locations, it can be very finicky)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Large storm system showing up in the medium range. Fits the cycle of troughs handing off in transition period.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
It appears some decent radar returns are happening northwest of Tulsa right now. Maybe going to get some flakes up there Brent? Of course, assuming it doesn’t dissipate like snow seems to do before they enter a metro area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Large storm system showing up in the medium range. Fits the cycle of troughs handing off in transition period.
Yeah definitely getting consistent. Heavy snow in Kansas on the Euro but still just to see a storm the GFS even showed it to a point. I definitely wouldn't be opposed to a big rain event at this rate
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote:Ntxw wrote:Large storm system showing up in the medium range. Fits the cycle of troughs handing off in transition period.
Yeah definitely getting consistent. Heavy snow in Kansas on the Euro but still just to see a storm the GFS even showed it to a point. I definitely wouldn't be opposed to a big rain event at this rate
It's on all the guidance to varying degrees. Let's hope it doesn't trend weaker as it gets closer.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:Ntxw wrote:Large storm system showing up in the medium range. Fits the cycle of troughs handing off in transition period.
Yeah definitely getting consistent. Heavy snow in Kansas on the Euro but still just to see a storm the GFS even showed it to a point. I definitely wouldn't be opposed to a big rain event at this rate
It's on all the guidance to varying degrees. Let's hope it doesn't trend weaker as it gets closer.
There is a very big snowband near Dodge City, KS, Snowfall rates are close to 2 inches per hour.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote::spam:
https://i.ibb.co/s3ZdQL2/sn10-acc-us-sc-2.png
I normally hate when people say this, but because it suits my interests in this particular moment:
ALL HAIL KING EURO
Once it stops showing something I like though I’ll be back to my regularly scheduled program
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
At the end of the Euro I’ve noticed in the last two runs that it seems to be hanging some energy back west..maybe another round?
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote::spam:
https://i.ibb.co/s3ZdQL2/sn10-acc-us-sc-2.png
Y’all know better than to trust a model when it shows snow and cold. They are only reliable when they show shorts and shirt sleeve bike riding weather!
Heat Miser rebuttal in 3, 2, 1…
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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