Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Haris]

I'm gonna need a NW trend this week... I've had enough of the snowstorms to the east

On the positive I think Nashville got largely screwed and a lot of places struggled with warm air

My fam in Atlanta struggling to get a coating lol. Only about an inch in their northern suburbs. Got too much dry air. I’m fine with that

[Brent]

I'm gonna need a NW trend this week... I've had enough of the snowstorms to the east

On the positive I think Nashville got largely screwed and a lot of places struggled with warm air

My fam in Atlanta struggling to get a coating lol. Only about an inch in their northern suburbs. Got too much dry air. I’m fine with that

Yeah inconsistent rates and time of day is definitely hurting them

[Haris]

Funny nobody has posted one for houston..must be left out again lol

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

It’s hard getting snow in Houston. Even in Feb 2021, it only amounted to 1”. More of a ice / sleet concern for y’all if a storm comes

To be fair over the last decade we've had more snow events in SE Texas than y'all have had in central Texas.(Due mainly to a lack of moisture).Since 2008 snow events have become more common down here than they were in the 90s and most of the 2000s.Yall made up for the snow drought with last years storm though.

We won’t see last year again in Austin. 2-3” in Jan and 5-7” in Feb. beat DC Delaware Baltimore lol. Before 2021, the last time Austin even got an inch was 2004

[DallasAg]

The cold air setup was really weird with this one. At one point mid-morning today, Demopolis (southwest Alabama) was 32 degrees and getting snow, while Birmingham was in the mid-40s and rain. Did Nashville actually get down to freezing at all? Seemed like they were hovering in the mid/high 30s most of the morning.

Lots of wind with this one, though. High Wind Warnings for part of north Georgia this morning.

[wxman22]

It’s hard getting snow in Houston. Even in Feb 2021, it only amounted to 1”. More of a ice / sleet concern for y’all if a storm comes

To be fair over the last decade we've had more snow events in SE Texas than y'all have had in central Texas.(Due mainly to a lack of moisture).Since 2008 snow events have become more common down here than they were in the 90s and most of the 2000s.Yall made up for the snow drought with last years storm though.

I look at it from a pattern specific viewpoint and I think the point was it takes a special kind of pattern (big arctic HP's) with the right upper level pattern/low pressure path to get snow that close to the coast. It can definitely happen as you pointed out, but more often than not it's going to be more of a sleet or freezing rain precip type (warm nose situation).

Oh I completely agree, im just saying that setup for snow has happened more often than normal down here over the last 10+ years.

[Brent]

The cold air setup was really weird with this one. At one point mid-morning today, Demopolis (southwest Alabama) was 32 degrees and getting snow, while Birmingham was in the mid-40s and rain. Did Nashville actually get down to freezing at all? Seemed like they were hovering in the mid/high 30s most of the morning.

Lots of wind with this one, though. High Wind Warnings for part of north Georgia this morning.

It was an upper level low. Those things are known as weatherman's woe. They have their own cold air and the track was south of Birmingham and Nashville so that's why. You have to be in the right spot to score and a lot of other places get screwed as we've seen today and it's pretty much impossible to predict

[Ntxw]

The cold air setup was really weird with this one. At one point mid-morning today, Demopolis (southwest Alabama) was 32 degrees and getting snow, while Birmingham was in the mid-40s and rain. Did Nashville actually get down to freezing at all? Seemed like they were hovering in the mid/high 30s most of the morning.

Lots of wind with this one, though. High Wind Warnings for part of north Georgia this morning.

It was an upper level low. Those things are known as weatherman's woe. They have their own cold air is why it seems colder in other places. You have to be in the right spot to score basically and a lot of other places get screwed as we've seen today

Yeah as the ULL continues to deepen and went negative tilt it draws up warm, moist air from the gulf. Also by nature of cutoff ULLs they decouple from the parent cold trof. Often relies on storm dynamics for snow.

[Brent]

In other news snowing in Dallas at 138 on the GFS(Saturday morning)

And yeah I've seen quite a few upper level lows in my life. Definitely mixed success

[Haris]

great run for half the state

[Texas Snow]

In other news snowing in Dallas at 138 on the GFS(Saturday morning)

And yeah I've seen quite a few upper level lows in my life. Definitely mixed success

29 degrees with completed saturated, sub freezing, column. Last few runs have had precip in some form so hopefully trend continues.

[rwfromkansas]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/TrsPtMb/172-D065-E-6310-405-B-AC44-4-FEABC2033-CA.png [/url] great run for half the state

Now that gets my attention. None of these light flizzards.

Just wish it was Friday to get a snow day. Lol.

[Bhow]

Loving the 18z GEFS so far

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS back to crazy town run.



Look at that 500mb map lol! Good luck pinning that down.

[Iceresistance]

I'm getting tiny flakes again supposed to be sunny today

Same here this morning, before the sun came out at around 11 AM

[Ntxw]

Also very Nino like chill on GFS. For the northern half of the state stays chilly, cloudy, frequent frontal passages. As chaotic the S/W will be the pattern overall is quite stable with NW flow and energy from the west alongside STJ.

[Iceresistance]

Just when things are getting good with the models: THIS happens:


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-NO.gif

[txtwister78]

A lot of members showing winter precip at various times Thursday into Saturday.

[bubba hotep]

The 18z GFS is a major outlier when compared to the GEFS. The op gets widespread 1" QPF across the state but the GEFS keeps the 1" line offshore and has most areas below 0.25". At some point, the higher resolution of the op should start to weigh heavier than the ensemble. Is that under 120 hrs? Under 84 hrs?

[Haris]

The 18z GFS is a major outlier when compared to the GEFS. The op gets widespread 1" QPF across the state but the GEFS keeps the 1" line offshore and has most areas below 0.25". At some point, the higher resolution of the op should start to weigh heavier than the ensemble. Is that under 120 hrs? Under 84 hrs?

Altho you dont need 1" QPF for good snow. It only takes 0.2 as long as ratios are decent. Hence why most members do show snow/ice

[orangeblood]

The 18z GFS is a major outlier when compared to the GEFS. The op gets widespread 1" QPF across the state but the GEFS keeps the 1" line offshore and has most areas below 0.25". At some point, the higher resolution of the op should start to weigh heavier than the ensemble. Is that under 120 hrs? Under 84 hrs?

Altho you dont need 1" QPF for good snow. It only takes 0.2 as long as ratios are decent. Hence why most members do show snow/ice

Yeah, I think the most important aspect is the Ensembles continue to back up its Operational. It’s the only model that is currently doing so…hopefully we see Euro trend towards this soon