Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2601 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:33 pm

AUS/SAT NWS starting to jump on board with winter precip now for Thursday/early Friday timeframe.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2602 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:43 pm

Another day this week high in the 20s up here and no moisture :spam: :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2603 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:46 pm

Brent wrote:Another day this week high in the 20s up here and no moisture :spam: :roll:


I do have a 30% chance of Light Snow & highs in the Mid 20s.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2604 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:50 pm

orangeblood wrote:With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1642420800/1643112000-y04LuPWxsiI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1642420800/1643198400-WjM7utaeGbM.png


Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2605 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:51 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:Another day this week high in the 20s up here and no moisture :spam: :roll:


I do have a 30% chance of Light Snow & highs in the Mid 20s.


Still lacking real moisture up here in what is otherwise a good pattern. I mean maybe we can get some flurries but we can't get much beyond that

But places east of us have no problem
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2606 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:26 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1642420800/1643112000-y04LuPWxsiI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1642420800/1643198400-WjM7utaeGbM.png


Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?


The PNA is expected to become more Neutral

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2607 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:26 pm

bubba hotep wrote:If this coming weekend is a swing and miss, then it will probably take a bit before our next window as the pattern starts a reset. What does Pacific forcing do beyond Week 2?

Image


Pretty big adjustment but supported by the last 24hrs of ensemble data.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2608 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:09 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1642420800/1643112000-y04LuPWxsiI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1642420800/1643198400-WjM7utaeGbM.png


Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?


Shoot Reload Repeat...and the good news is the trajectory may change more towards the central/southern plains soon!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2609 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:28 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1642420800/1643112000-y04LuPWxsiI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_precip_inch/1642420800/1643198400-WjM7utaeGbM.png


Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?


The PNA is expected to become more Neutral

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif


A neutral PNA can’t get here soon enough. West coast has had fun this winter and the east is now. The center of the nation hasn’t had crap yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2610 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:44 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Some positive trends on the 12z EPS and it continues to reload our source region in the longer range. Does the PNA go negative and generate a repeat of December or do we see a different orientation of the pattern that allows for cold shots into the Southern Plains?


The PNA is expected to become more Neutral

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif


A neutral PNA can’t get here soon enough. West coast has had fun this winter and the east is now. The center of the nation hasn’t had crap yet.


The West Coast had fun in December
The East Coast in January
Could we have our turn to have a lot of snow in February??
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2611 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:56 pm

Someone needs to get a spare tire for the GFS to get right back on track! :lol:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1483152744487829508


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2612 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:28 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
The PNA is expected to become more Neutral

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/pna.sprd2.gif


A neutral PNA can’t get here soon enough. West coast has had fun this winter and the east is now. The center of the nation hasn’t had crap yet.


The West Coast had fun in December
The East Coast in January
Could we have our turn to have a lot of snow in February??


We better is all I'm gonna say
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2613 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:57 pm

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
A neutral PNA can’t get here soon enough. West coast has had fun this winter and the east is now. The center of the nation hasn’t had crap yet.


The West Coast had fun in December
The East Coast in January
Could we have our turn to have a lot of snow in February??


We better is all I'm gonna say


Since you moved from what, Alabama? Your time in Texas didn’t do much for you and so far OK has been a dud too. Feel kinda bad for you lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2614 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:01 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
The West Coast had fun in December
The East Coast in January
Could we have our turn to have a lot of snow in February??


We better is all I'm gonna say


Since you moved from what, Alabama? Your time in Texas didn’t do much for you and so far OK has been a dud too. Feel kinda bad for you lol


Yeah this winter will probably get an F if we don't get a snowstorm this isn't Alabama or Dallas
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2615 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:22 pm

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
We better is all I'm gonna say


Since you moved from what, Alabama? Your time in Texas didn’t do much for you and so far OK has been a dud too. Feel kinda bad for you lol


Yeah this winter will probably get an F if we don't get a snowstorm this isn't Alabama or Dallas


All it takes is one storm for this winter to pass the Winter Grading system. :lol:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2616 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:29 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Since you moved from what, Alabama? Your time in Texas didn’t do much for you and so far OK has been a dud too. Feel kinda bad for you lol


Yeah this winter will probably get an F if we don't get a snowstorm this isn't Alabama or Dallas


All it takes is one storm for this winter to pass the Winter Grading system. :lol:


Oh I agree and there's plenty of winter left luckily
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2617 Postby Golf7270 » Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:43 pm

We dont want anything to do with December's pattern or its game over lol. -pna is ok, but not off the charts negative.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2618 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:37 pm

0z gfs lost its mind. 7 days out again.

Will say this is the same period CMC lost its mind earlier today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2619 Postby harp » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z gfs lost its mind. 7 days out again.

Will say this is the same period CMC lost its mind earlier today.

How so?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2620 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z gfs lost its mind. 7 days out again.

Will say this is the same period CMC lost its mind earlier today.


Looks more like day 8-9 but still

Eventually one of these storms has to pan out? And actually have moisture? :lol: :spam:
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