Texas Winter 2021-2022
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- Haris
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1027
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8915
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
12z GFS has another one in the long range for Southern Texas!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ralph's Weather wrote:This storm has huge potential. I am less certain about the I-35 corridor getting the heavy precip, the pattern has been so dry lately there. Areas east of I-45 should have no problem getting heavy precip though. If this storm really digs though western areas could join the party like shown on recent runs. 0.5 to 2+ inch qpf with surface in the 20s would have severe impacts. Way too early to identify warm noses to determine precip types, but it looks like most will see the full suite of precip types with this. Heck eastern areas may see severe storms ahead of the front Wed so may add hail to the precip suite.
I fully expect additional waves to follow next weekend and into the following week. Those would likely have a better chance to be pure snow for northern portions of the state as the cold will be solidly in place and deep at that point.
The cold will be intense where snow falls with single digits and a few sub zero reading possible. Doubt we see widespread sub zero like last year, hopefully not at least.
March 4, 2015 - the official daily climate report for DFW had the following observed weather:
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
Freezing Rain
LT Freezing Rain
Heavy Snow
Snow
Lt Snow
Sleet
Fog
Fog w/visibility <= 1/4 mile
Now that's what I call a "full precip suite". That was a pretty crazy day - the setup for next week looks/feels somewhat like that. Convection ahead of strong cold front, then a wild transition of precip types following.
Last edited by DallasAg on Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8915
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
txtwister78 wrote:Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png
The GEFS has been mostly consistent with this for quite some time, this is why I trust the Ensembles more than the Operationals.
1 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1027
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Haris wrote:This is what you want y’all !!
Yup big signal/trend in the right direction if you want big winter precip no doubt.
3 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
txtwister78 wrote:Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png
There's been ample warning for the state. I suspect as we get closer in reality we'll see things continue to ramp up. The pattern is ripe with east and west ridges.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8915
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
All I can say here for this one in the long range 12z GFS is OOF!
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OOF.png
OKAY! This is a REALLY BIG OOF!
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_49.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OOF.png
OKAY! This is a REALLY BIG OOF!
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_49.png
Last edited by Iceresistance on Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 61
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Can we all agree on just ONE thing? That would be a high of 85-90F next Friday would be much more enjoyable than what the models are indicating (high of upper 30s in Houston and about 18 in D-FW)? Come on! Who's with me on that?
Oh stop! Your 80s and 90s will be here before you know it.
4 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
You guys are keeping me pumped!!! Loving how lively the forum has been now that there's a promising signal for something.
2 likes
Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22482
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
BRB. Heading to the Canadian border to fortify my wall. People in SE TX were in a panic last week when the low hit 30-31. They were shutting off their water for a 1-hr freeze.
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- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1027
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png
There's been ample warning for the state. I suspect as we get closer in reality we'll see things continue to ramp up.
No question. I think if we continue to see runs trend toward winter precip (obviously with the cold air in place as a concern with it), we should begin to see a unified preparedness message over the weekend and certainly by early next wk. Never hurts to do that.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3334
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png
There's been ample warning for the state. I suspect as we get closer in reality we'll see things continue to ramp up. The pattern is ripe with east and west ridges.
Yep, very ripe and these taxpayer tools have been showing this for several days now....7 day temp anomalies like this, if close to verifying, are going to put MAJOR strain on this states infrastructure again. Directly in-line with major population corridors
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
UKMET with limited data but 5h looks slower than GFS so it's likely a big hit with cold incoming.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2000
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman22 wrote:12Z ICON showing a major ice storm all the way to the coast.And the GFS is finally showing a storm taking shape.
https://i.ibb.co/3dgt8zj/icon-2022-01-28-12-Z-156-37-278-255-6-26-889-268-333-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png
https://i.ibb.co/d0w9hP7/icon-2022-01-28-12-Z-168-37-278-255-6-26-889-268-333-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png
Ok wait a minute. I know we all want cold and snow, but who thought that up?
Is the like Ghostbusters where Gozer has our first thought turn into our destructor? Who had the thought??????
(Just watched Ghostbusters in 4k having not seen it since VHS days.....)
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png
There's been ample warning for the state. I suspect as we get closer in reality we'll see things continue to ramp up. The pattern is ripe with east and west ridges.
Yep, very ripe and these taxpayer tools have been showing this for several days now....7 day temp anomalies like this, if close to verifying, are going to put MAJOR strain on this states infrastructure again. Directly in-line with major population corridors
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom_7day/1643371200/1644472800-xYmgZrZDwBc.png
Doesn't help you have the northeast major population centers with demand this weekend, then Texas as a major nat gas producer next week.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
300+ hours but why not? Mr HeatMiser tear down this wall.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Hopefully ERCOT has learned their lesson from last year. Signals are there again for another major outbreak for Texas, and if ERCOT tries to say they had "no clue" if something happens, it will be devastating. They need to act if it looks genuinely likely and start creating some surplus.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3334
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:300+ hours but why not? Mr HeatMiser tear down this wall.
https://i.imgur.com/WBVY3M7.png
https://i.imgur.com/CGHPmIa.gif
Majority of the State 15-25F below normal over a 10 day stretch...maybe the coldest GFS run I've ever witnessed!
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- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1027
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cerlin wrote:Hopefully ERCOT has learned their lesson from last year. Signals are there again for another major outbreak for Texas, and if ERCOT tries to say they had "no clue" if something happens, it will be devastating. They need to act if it looks genuinely likely and start creating some surplus.
It's a fine line I think but an important one. Obviously, I don't want to get into the weeds as it relates to this particular discussion, but preparedness is just that. You should always prepare for the "worst case scenario". Last year definitely fell into that category and obviously we all know what happened, however I think it's equally as important not to compare every arctic outbreak or winter weather event (which does occur in TX in Jan/Feb as we all know) to that rare/brutal 2021 event in Feb for a variety of reasons.
So yes absolutely ERCOT definitely should prepare, and I imagine they will this time around, but at the same time be careful of over emphasis to the general public to the point where this becomes too "routine" with every cold outbreak. That can also put a strain on other areas and perhaps have unintended consequences over time. Now back to weather.....
Last edited by txtwister78 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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