Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bubba hotep]

Radar looks pretty good over DFW and seeing a few mPING reports of snow. However, I find that somewhat suspicious given the 00z FWD balloon.

[Brent]

The GFS and Euro were also hinting at some ice IIRC earlier. I’d happily take a swath of 3-5 inches for all of NTX but I’m really hoping no ice. Thankfully it’s much too far in advance to really get caught up on ice vs snow—models struggle with thermal profiles even a day ahead—but I’m going to pray the ICON doesn’t verify. However, this pattern is reminding me a lot of February 2015 with event after potential event. So far models are highlighting at least 3 different snow events pretty consistently and I couldn’t be more excited for how quickly this winter shifted. At least, until the models take it away

Lol I feel ya on the last part but I will say this one feels different. It just seemed like the other setups it was one run or one model and then it vanishes. This is getting consistent for something potentially big

[Ntxw]

Radar looks pretty good over DFW and seeing a few mPING reports of snow. However, I find that somewhat suspicious given the 00z FWD balloon.

I don't know about snow but there are definitely sleet mixed in there. I can hear it outside.

[txtwister78]

Wild run on the GFS Ensemble tonight for sure.

[bubba hotep]

This is a sneaky little svr wx system (it seems like we have a lot of these when tracking potential big time winter wx events)

[Texas Snow]

Radar looks pretty good over DFW and seeing a few mPING reports of snow. However, I find that somewhat suspicious given the 00z FWD balloon.

I don't know about snow but there are definitely sleet mixed in there. I can hear it outside.

I’m glad you guys gave us a head heads up because I was going to bed. I’m currently standing outside under yellow on the radar and it’s definitely all sleet. Nice little bonus I wasn’t expecting!

[Cpv17]

This is a sneaky little svr wx system (it seems like we have a lot of these when tracking potential big time winter wx events)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012700/gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

Yeah and it looks like it blows up during the warmest part of the day. Could be an interesting lil system. SPC doesn’t seem too concerned about it yet though.

[Ntxw]

Not sure of the surface yet but the 0z euro upper levels is setting up for a big run.

I think it's finally our time that the Pacific blocking finally coming into favor.

[Brent]

Not sure of the surface yet but the 0z euro upper levels is setting up for a big run.

I think it's finally our time that the Pacific blocking finally coming into favor.

Pathetic run here. Barely snows of course we can't have consensus

[Haris]

Not sure of the surface yet but the 0z euro upper levels is setting up for a big run.

I think it's finally our time that the Pacific blocking finally coming into favor.

Weaker low and too N. But long way out so not worried

[Ntxw]

Not sure of the surface yet but the 0z euro upper levels is setting up for a big run.

I think it's finally our time that the Pacific blocking finally coming into favor.

Weaker low and too N. But long way out so not worried

A little different ejection but not sig far off. Timing of cold too.

[Cpv17]

I wonder what the EPS looks like..

[Ralph's Weather]

Nothing making it to the ground here but radar looks good. We may get some sleet in the heaviest band moving in.

[Iceresistance]

If 0z icon verifies, thats 1+" of ice for N TX

Crippling event on the ICON.

Recently found out that you can see all the Winter Weather modes on the ICON on WeatherNerds!


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/icon.html

[dhweather]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1486639020746493952

[orangeblood]

As we monitor next weeks potential winter storm, FW NWS office snippet does a great job simplifying what to follow over the next several days

Perhaps the main feature of interest through the long term period
will be the next trough progged to deepen to our west by midweek.
Ensemble guidance has been consistent with advertising this
pattern shift which could allow for a significant arctic air
intrusion to take place around the middle or end of the week.
This trough, should it deepen to the levels currently indicated,
would also be accompanied by precipitation. What we`ll have to
monitor for over the coming days is its potential trajectory and
speed, since a progressive system would result in just a brief
shot at some rain along the system`s cold front followed by cold
but dry conditions in its wake. However, a slower solution that
lags the trough to our west could support an anafrontal setup with
wintry precipitation following the frontal passage later
Wednesday or Thursday.

Bottom line is a faster/more progressive trough = very little precip, slower/deeper trough = more precip/impact. Unfortunately, the odds are probably in the more progressive/faster solution as that has been predominant almost all winter long. usually you can get shorter wavelengths with these troughs as you get into February, Polar Jet begins to weaken...just not sure if we're there quite yet looking at this upper level pattern

[HockeyTx82]

 https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1486377599668563969




They really are Salty up there.....

[orangeblood]

https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1486377599668563969?s=20

They really are Salty up there.....

lol they really are but this storm is a forecasters nightmare....almost 2 days from impact and the NAM has 36" in Boston, 14" NYC while GFS is at 11" Boston 2" NYC

[txtwister78]

Relying on the NAM can be a dangerous gamble though when it comes to surface features and consequently precip outputs (even 48 hours out) The NAM is notorious for windshield wiping. The GFS has been pretty consistent and now the Euro has been moving east little by little with each run. Really all about when and where the upper low forms for the NE and in particular the I-95 corridor

[rwfromkansas]

If 0z icon verifies, thats 1+" of ice for N TX

Crippling event on the ICON.

Recently found out that you can see all the Winter Weather modes on the ICON on WeatherNerds!


https://www.weathernerds.org/models/icon.html

I can't figure out how to get that site to work. It's like it's 1998.