Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TropicalTundra]

Dry as a bone here in SA. Just not enough moisture...feels amazing outside though.

Dry air is settling in so precip may die out before it can reach SA. Although I don't think that's going to happen. A sleet or snow shower is almost inevitable in SA soon.

[Iceresistance]

This might be at the end of the run, but this needs to be pointed out

With the extreme cold in place in Western & NW Canada, it's blocked from retrograding back towards Alaska & is also blocked towards the Atlantic Coast, & the only other possible direction is south towards the Rockies & the Central & Southern Plains by Early or Mid February.

Average 2m Temperature . . . The cold is coming . . .

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65-1.png

500 MB Anomalies, you can clearly see where it may go.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

[Cpv17]

This might be at the end of the run, but this needs to be pointed out

With the extreme cold in place in Western & NW Canada, it's blocked from retrograding back towards Alaska & is also blocked towards the Atlantic Coast, & the only other possible direction is south towards the Rockies & the Central & Southern Plains by Early or Mid February.

Average 2m Temperature . . . The cold is coming . . .
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65-1.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65-1.png

500 MB Anomalies, you can clearly see where it may go.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

I pointed that out yesterday. It’s screaming a -PNA with another possible southeast ridge poking its head into Texas.

[Iceresistance]

This might be at the end of the run, but this needs to be pointed out

With the extreme cold in place in Western & NW Canada, it's blocked from retrograding back towards Alaska & is also blocked towards the Atlantic Coast, & the only other possible direction is south towards the Rockies & the Central & Southern Plains by Early or Mid February.

Average 2m Temperature . . . The cold is coming . . .
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65-1.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65-1.png

500 MB Anomalies, you can clearly see where it may go.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

I pointed that out yesterday. It’s screaming a -PNA with another possible southeast ridge poking its head into Texas.

Yeah, the -PNA really started to show itself here, it's probably -.75 to -.5 since it spills to Montana first before coming here.

Edit to add: This is actually similar to this Past Winter, when the models began to show something potentially big for February in Late January.

[wxman57]

See if you can spot a BIG difference between the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS. Hint - it's NOT off the west coast. This is the 9-day forecast.

http://wxman57.com/images/Jan29.JPG

[jasons2k]

Pro tip: if you have a Camelbak or other bladder type backpack, fill with water and freeze it. Wear a thin shirt and strap it on like normal. As the ice melts in this heat, you can then drink the water. 2 birds, 1 stone.

Not only do I have a CamelBak, I have the original that was sold in 1989, developed by medics who assisted with the Wichita Falls Hotter 'N' Hell Hundred (100 mile bike ride in August). I have a newer one, too.

If you guys want snow, the 12Z GFS says move to the east coast. That's a heck of an east coast storm it has at the end of the month. Whether or not it will really develop, well that's the question..

That old plastic has BPA in it. Camelback went BPA-free in 2011. Probably best kept on the shelf as a novelty item.

[wxman57]

Pro tip: if you have a Camelbak or other bladder type backpack, fill with water and freeze it. Wear a thin shirt and strap it on like normal. As the ice melts in this heat, you can then drink the water. 2 birds, 1 stone.

Not only do I have a CamelBak, I have the original that was sold in 1989, developed by medics who assisted with the Wichita Falls Hotter 'N' Hell Hundred (100 mile bike ride in August). I have a newer one, too.

If you guys want snow, the 12Z GFS says move to the east coast. That's a heck of an east coast storm it has at the end of the month. Whether or not it will really develop, well that's the question..

That old plastic has BPA in it. Camelback went BPA-free in 2011. Probably best kept on the shelf as a novelty item.

It has been in a box in my closet for 30 years. I have a couple new ones. Should I stop taking my daily BPA supplements?

[jaguars_22]

So anyone think me being in Victoria under a winter storm warning could be dry slotted? Very surprised we didn’t get out under WWA instead.

[Cpv17]

See if you can spot a BIG difference between the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS. Hint - it's NOT off the west coast. This is the 9-day forecast.

http://wxman57.com/images/Jan29.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/Jan29.JPG

You’re never really going to see the Euro be that aggressive on a system 9 days out. It’s a conservative model.

[Iceresistance]

So anyone think me being in Victoria under a winter storm warning could be dry slotted? Very surprised we didn’t get out under WWA instead.

The Wintry event appears to be mostly Overnight, Corpus Christi is under an 80% Chance of Wintry Mix with a Low of 31°F

[Bhow]

Radar definitely looks better for CTX than I thought it would

[Haris]

Radar definitely looks better for CTX than I thought it would

Getting sleet in scenic southwest Austin now.

[Cpv17]

I find this map kinda interesting. Will it stay bottled up there? Bleed down into the SW? Or move towards us?

[Yukon Cornelius]

It appears that we won’t get out of the 20s today, even with clearing skies. It’s going to be cold tonight!

[TropicalTundra]

Radar definitely looks better for CTX than I thought it would

Still looks boring for me in Temple. That snow/sleet just won't move east. Drier air is slowly starting to move in as well.

[jaguars_22]

If there is an upper low over Mexico then why wouldn’t that ball of snow (showing on HRRR) continue moving northeast? It kind of just sits in Mexico and south texas…

[Ralph's Weather]

Cloudy and temps holding in low to mid 30s in East Texas.

[Tireman4]

Where is Porta? LOL

[Iceresistance]

Where is Porta? LOL

I saw him post earlier this week, I'm thinking that he has more important things to do right now than to post here.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Pretty good sleet shower at the moment in SE Austin (Pilot Knob area).

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk