Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC is a true Nightmare Scenario!

Ice Storm along & South of I-44 & into DFW, along & South of I-44 to the Red River then becomes a Sleet Storm.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a 1062 MB High in Southern Canada, it's in the long range & is not very likely, but it's still on the very active February trend.

[wxman57]

Note that Levi's Tropical Tidbits site now has the Euro maps every 3 hrs to 120 hrs and every 6 hrs thereafter. Many more parameters added. I don't see a winter weather map (snow or ice) though.

TT doesn't have the feature yet.

I know, that's why I emailed Levi asking about it. By the way, if you're not already a Patreon member at TT then I highly encourage you to sign up. He's producing a quite valuable service and it would help to cover his costs.

[Iceresistance]

Note that Levi's Tropical Tidbits site now has the Euro maps every 3 hrs to 120 hrs and every 6 hrs thereafter. Many more parameters added. I don't see a winter weather map (snow or ice) though.

TT doesn't have the feature yet.

I know, that's why I emailed Levi asking about it. By the way, if you're not already a Patreon member at TT then I highly encourage you to sign up. He's producing a quite valuable service and it would help to cover his costs.

Thanks for the Offer, but I don't have Patreon.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a 1062 MB High in Southern Canada, it's in the long range & is not very likely, but it's still on the very active February trend.

1061 MB in Minnesota

[orangeblood]

12z GFS has a 1062 MB High in Southern Canada, it's in the long range & is not very likely, but it's still on the very active February trend.

Coldest stretch of winter, by far, showing up on GFS...7 day temp anomalies some 10-20 F below normal across the Southern Plains region. ERCOT PREP ALERT!!!!!

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a 1062 MB High in Southern Canada, it's in the long range & is not very likely, but it's still on the very active February trend.

Coldest stretch of winter, by far, showing up on GFS...7 day temp anomalies some 10-20 F below normal across the Southern Plains region. ERCOT PREP ALERT!!!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom_7day/1643284800/1644451200-wII1cVkvcC0.png

GEFS is showing something similar to this as well.

[Iceresistance]

What is this? The end of the 12z GFS has a near 1070 MB High in SE Canada?

[South Texas Storms]

TT doesn't have the feature yet.

I know, that's why I emailed Levi asking about it. By the way, if you're not already a Patreon member at TT then I highly encourage you to sign up. He's producing a quite valuable service and it would help to cover his costs.

Thanks for the Offer, but I don't have Patreon.

It's easy to do and it's just a way to donate to Levi who runs Tropical Tidbits. Just click on the "Support TT" button on the top right corner of the website.

[Edwards Limestone]

About sums it up so far this winter precip wise.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKH5e_NXwAM5sce?format=jpg&name=small

Yup. I'm afraid the Southern Plains could be in big trouble this spring/summer once we get in a negative feedback loop and/or get trapped under the dreaded death ridge.
A lot of our new residents from the coasts are probably going to be in for a shock lol.

[Iceresistance]

About sums it up so far this winter precip wise.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKH5e_NXwAM5sce?format=jpg&name=small

Yup. I'm afraid the Southern Plains could be in big trouble this spring/summer once we get in a negative feedback loop and/or get trapped under the dreaded death ridge.
A lot of our new residents from the coasts are probably going to be in for a shock lol.

Unless the expected El Nino comes in faster, we could have a Summer similar to 2011 or 2012 (I didn't want to do this, but I had to)

[ThunderSleetDreams]

About sums it up so far this winter precip wise.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKH5e_NXwAM5sce?format=jpg&name=small

Yup. I'm afraid the Southern Plains could be in big trouble this spring/summer once we get in a negative feedback loop and/or get trapped under the dreaded death ridge.
A lot of our new residents from the coasts are probably going to be in for a shock lol.

Unless the expected El Nino comes in faster, we could have a Summer similar to 2011 or 2012 (I didn't want to do this, but I had to)

The numbers 2 0 1 1 shall never be mentioned here again. That year is akin to killing puppies, tripping elderly women, supporting Socialism and cheering for Nick Saban if you are a true, red blooded Texan.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm becoming very confident that our friends at the CPC will swing and whiff (on temps) again on the month of February, much like they did in January.

Nothing I see in the long term suggests we will be well above normal as depicted. Precip wise, we are still fighting a battle, but the 1st half of Feb looks marginally better than January.

[Iceresistance]

Yup. I'm afraid the Southern Plains could be in big trouble this spring/summer once we get in a negative feedback loop and/or get trapped under the dreaded death ridge.
A lot of our new residents from the coasts are probably going to be in for a shock lol.

Unless the expected El Nino comes in faster, we could have a Summer similar to 2011 or 2012 (I didn't want to do this, but I had to)

The numbers 2 0 1 1 shall never be mentioned here again. That year is akin to killing puppies, tripping elderly women, supporting Socialism and cheering for Nick Saban if you are a true, red blooded Texan.

I think that the only time if it will be mentioned again, is if 2022 tries to push it.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is currently similar to CMC

ETA: Also has the Trough going faster like the GFS.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro is currently similar to CMC

ETA: Also has the Trough going faster like the GFS.

Too progressive.

[orangeblood]

12z Euro is currently similar to CMC

ETA: Also has the Trough going faster like the GFS.

It's still a decent look though but the biggest takeway, IMO, is its going to a massive lower 48 Arctic Outbreak similar to GFS. Power Grid better start prepping now, wouldn't want a repeat of Feb 2021

[rwfromkansas]

The Euro would give my hometown in KS a foot. Huge hit up north. To have a shot, we definitely need it to be more slow for TX and OK to cash in on this. Hopefully the Euro goes back to the original solution from the other day.

[Brent]

The Euro would give my hometown in KS a foot. Huge hit up north. To have a shot, we definitely need it to be more slow for TX and OK to cash in on this. Hopefully the Euro goes back to the original solution from the other day.

It was a slight improvement here maybe we can keep it up

[orangeblood]

The Euro would give my hometown in KS a foot. Huge hit up north. To have a shot, we definitely need it to be more slow for TX and OK to cash in on this. Hopefully the Euro goes back to the original solution from the other day.

Also keep in mind frontal boundary location has massive implications for a setup like this and usually models at this range are way too slow with the frontal passage.