Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2821 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:24 pm

Too much dry air
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2822 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:See if you can spot a BIG difference between the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS. Hint - it's NOT off the west coast. This is the 9-day forecast.

http://wxman57.com/images/Jan29.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/Jan29.JPG


What am I looking at exactly?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2823 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:36 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:See if you can spot a BIG difference between the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS. Hint - it's NOT off the west coast. This is the 9-day forecast.

http://wxman57.com/images/Jan29.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/Jan29.JPG


What am I looking at exactly?


Look at the East Coast
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2824 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:38 pm

KFOR now has a 50% chance of snow Saturday Night into Sunday & also Next Wednesday, I did not see that coming at all!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2825 Postby Haris » Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:57 pm

Image

Dusting of sleet on the roof. Good persistent sleet showers W of Austin. At least the formerly freezing drizzle capital of Texas keeps its streak of winter precip
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2826 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:02 pm

Northern and Western Texas will probably be seeing below-freezing temperatures in the coming days.
If you want to see what chilly is like, look at the -35 F in Minnesota
Image
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2827 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:11 pm

Never got above 26 here and yeah it's cold and the wind sucks. Would be so much more impressive if everything was covered in snow. Hopefully February produces...

I could never live up north... Neverending cold and no snow is not my thing :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2828 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:14 pm

Haris wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/ykWdPfw/078-F3-B2-B-F9-FC-4-FBE-9-ECC-4-FADA2020-C9-F.jpg [/url]

Dusting of sleet on the roof. Good persistent sleet showers W of Austin. At least the formerly freezing drizzle capital of Texas keeps its streak of winter precip

Nice little sleet storm down there, looks like some accumulations. Congrats to cental and south Texas today!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2829 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:17 pm

1st snowflakes and flurries mixing with freezing rain at the LonghornWX Center in Jollyville, TX. 32 degrees.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2830 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:27 pm

End of 18z GFS is showing 1062 MB High in NW Canada.


Edit to add: 500mb MSLP is at 579 where the Alaska Block is, the EPO is very Negative, but I'm curious on how negative the EPO is.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2831 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:38 pm

Glad Austin is getting something. All we got was cold drizzle here in SA.

We need rain asap….
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2832 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:39 pm

The GFS is developing consistency of this:

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Its-coming-.-.-..png

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_64.png

This really needs to be kept an eye on. :double:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2833 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:17 pm



It's a similar pattern as December. February is often a mirror of Decembers but different wavelengths. Ridge needs to go poleward and some kind of ridging move into NW Canada. Record heat in Houston on that map though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2834 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:


It's a similar pattern as December. February is often a mirror of Decembers but different wavelengths. Ridge needs to go poleward and some kind of ridging move into NW Canada. Record heat in Houston on that map though.


Yeah I was just about to say that it looks exactly like December. Ugly map. Major cold is there but definitely not headed towards us. Hopefully it changes. That’s a torch with that southeast ridge extending this way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2835 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:27 pm

The GFS is trying to trick you. Don't believe it beyond 3-5 days. Euro is considerably different, and the Euro has been outperforming the GFS by far even at 120 hrs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2836 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:43 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:


It's a similar pattern as December. February is often a mirror of Decembers but different wavelengths. Ridge needs to go poleward and some kind of ridging move into NW Canada. Record heat in Houston on that map though.


Yeah I was just about to say that it looks exactly like December. Ugly map. Major cold is there but definitely not headed towards us. Hopefully it changes. That’s a torch with that southeast ridge extending this way.

I did not notice the SE Ridge until now.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2837 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:The GFS is trying to trick you. Don't believe it beyond 3-5 days. Euro is considerably different, and the Euro has been outperforming the GFS by far even at 120 hrs.


The Euro has nearly 7 inches of rain for me on d 10. I doubt that lol but Monday is definitely looking wet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2838 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:53 pm

Chilly rain alert (which warmer than a cold rain alert) but I do hope this verifies b/c we need the rain.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2839 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:04 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Haris wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/ykWdPfw/078-F3-B2-B-F9-FC-4-FBE-9-ECC-4-FADA2020-C9-F.jpg [/url]

Dusting of sleet on the roof. Good persistent sleet showers W of Austin. At least the formerly freezing drizzle capital of Texas keeps its streak of winter precip

Nice little sleet storm down there, looks like some accumulations. Congrats to cental and south Texas today!!


I have yet to get anything. Nothing but cold and wind. All that snow is sitting SW of me and it WONT budge to go north. This is literally just Dec. 2017 repeat for me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2840 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:08 pm

Now this would definitely bring us some precipitation:

Image
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