Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2461 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:51 pm

18z GEFS ENS suite with more members showing mixed precip for next week across TX. That might be the most active output we've seen so far this winter within a 5 day window.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2462 Postby 3090 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:
3090 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Apparently, that video of the explosion is not from last evening's eruption, it's from a smaller eruption last month. There are no known videos of the current explosion.


So it is someone trying to fool the world of us? Just wondering how do you know it is NOT, from yesterday?


I don't think if anyone was that close to the recent explosion would have survived no less film it.


No way to tell how far or close the boat actually was due to the enormous nature of the explosion. And I would not think someone such as Mike Ventrice would have posted it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2463 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:54 pm

18z GEFs are smoking different
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2464 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:03 pm

Any chance that stuff in Oklahoma makes it into NTX?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2465 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:11 pm

I took this earlier today. (1.15.2021)

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/IMG_2487.gif
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2466 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:13 pm

The thing about snow is always how peaceful it is looks like this will be the last big band. Still nothing more than a dusting

https://streamable.com/n6i22s
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2467 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:16 pm

Haris wrote:18z GEFS are smoking different


Did you also mean the 18z GFS in the long range?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2468 Postby Golf7270 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:17 pm

Its fantasy, but HH gfs has epic beyond epic winter storm for yall. Fun to look at fo sho
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2469 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:25 pm

Golf7270 wrote:Its fantasy, but HH gfs has epic beyond epic winter storm for yall. Fun to look at fo sho

I mean fantasy is one thing but really is Winter Coming for H town i think not!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2470 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:27 pm

Golf7270 wrote:Its fantasy, but HH gfs has epic beyond epic winter storm for yall. Fun to look at fo sho

I mean fantasy is one thing but really is Winter Coming for H town i think not!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2471 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:32 pm

Golf7270 wrote:Its fantasy, but HH gfs has epic beyond epic winter storm for yall. Fun to look at fo sho


Lol basically February 2010 :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2472 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:40 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:Any chance that stuff in Oklahoma makes it into NTX?


I'm pulling for it, but forcing is moving away.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2473 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
The eruptions have been from underwater volcanic activity, so there won’t be a lot of ash as a result. However the question is how much extra water vapor was pumped into the global atmospheric equation … and what impact, if any, it has on our weather.


Photos and satellite imagery would indicate that a tremendous ash cloud covers the region. Even though the explosion was underwater, it threw ash up very high into the atmosphere. I was reading that the explosion was heard over 5000 miles away in Alaska. I heard one audio clip from Fiji.


The satellite imagery is definitely real. This is in a region that is ENSO sensitive and we already have a Nino like forcing going on over the IDL.


It'll take some days and weeks to really take a look but it's looking like the ash may have made it to the stratosphere, early indications not since Pinatubo has so much made it up there. Nothing confirmed though, I think when it clears will be larger than we thought early on.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2474 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:56 pm

18z GFS has a INSANE Winter Storm in the long range, it's unlikely to happen, but there is one thing for sure: We have major pattern changes coming our way soon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2475 Postby 3090 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS has a INSANE Winter Storm in the long range, it's unlikely to happen, but there is one thing for sure: We have major pattern changes coming our way soon.


The GFS is actually coming into agreement with the Canadian and the EURO; both early on have been forecasting an unusual southern winter storm event. Now that all 3 are seemingly lining up, I think it is safe to say, it is very good safe bet, a major southern winter storm will occur. The last remaining questions are; What areas ans how much?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2476 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:22 pm

3090 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS has a INSANE Winter Storm in the long range, it's unlikely to happen, but there is one thing for sure: We have major pattern changes coming our way soon.


The GFS is actually coming into agreement with the Canadian and the EURO; both early on have been forecasting an unusual southern winter storm event. Now that all 3 are seemingly lining up, I think it is safe to say, it is very good safe bet, a major southern winter storm will occur. The last remaining questions are; What areas ans how much?

Well after last February we put the big generac in so no 4 says without power for us just a possible huge natural gas bill
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2477 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:27 pm

Light to moderate snow in the Texarkana area for the past 45 minutes. It was enough to cover the rooftops, cars, and a dusting on the ground.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2478 Postby Quixotic » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:01 pm

Had brief flurries today. That’s enough to make me happy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2479 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:13 pm

Image
Image

Another increase on 18z and this is just through 144 !

1” mean it looks like if it would have extendfurther.
Winter storm threat looming!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2480 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:22 pm

30 and light snow here in northern Smith County.
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