Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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gboudx
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2941 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:10 pm

Cerlin wrote:If we want to talk about current weather, it appears DFW (and most of east Texas) is getting some much needed rain right now. If you can't have snow, a rain event is always a good backup plan.


I don't know how the rest of the Metroplex is fairing, but despite some decent radar returns moving ahead, it's been mostly, very, very light rain. Not enough to make the ground wet. Maybe some evaporation happening.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2942 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:24 pm

We all better hope that pesky SE ridge stays away or it could be game over. Latest CPC forecasts aren’t pretty.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2943 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:08 pm

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:Wednesday night trying to be interesting up here still

https://i.ibb.co/8KNpVFb/image1-9.png


NWS-Norman has up to 1 inch of snow.


It is the long range NAM but this looks interesting. Evidence of higher totals in bands. A sneaky setup maybe?

https://i.ibb.co/ZLQ87jN/namconus-asnow-scus-23.png


NWS-Norman now has 1-2 inches in Bands, otherwise up to .5 inch.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2944 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:10 pm

Cpv17 wrote:We all better hope that pesky SE ridge stays away or it could be game over. Latest CPC forecasts aren’t pretty.


Well . . .

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours39ad2aa283f913a8.png

Let's hope that this defeats the SE Ridge in Texas, it seems primed for this area if the Ridge goes towards the East Coast.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2945 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
NWS-Norman has up to 1 inch of snow.


It is the long range NAM but this looks interesting. Evidence of higher totals in bands. A sneaky setup maybe?

https://i.ibb.co/ZLQ87jN/namconus-asnow-scus-23.png


NWS-Norman now has 1-2 inches in Bands, otherwise up to .5 inch.


KFOR has a high of 32 with a 80% Chance of snow for OKC for Wednesday.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2946 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:25 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:
It is the long range NAM but this looks interesting. Evidence of higher totals in bands. A sneaky setup maybe?

https://i.ibb.co/ZLQ87jN/namconus-asnow-scus-23.png


NWS-Norman now has 1-2 inches in Bands, otherwise up to .5 inch.


KFOR has a high of 32 with a 80% Chance of snow for OKC for Wednesday.


While I am optimistic with the sneaky Wednesday-Thursday snow setup, I'm not buying KFOR just yet. KFOR has consistently overexaggerated snow chances this winter and I'm not sure they've gotten it right once. Hopefully I'm proven wrong, but I wouldn't bank on KFOR being right LOL.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2947 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:48 pm

Cerlin wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
NWS-Norman now has 1-2 inches in Bands, otherwise up to .5 inch.


KFOR has a high of 32 with a 80% Chance of snow for OKC for Wednesday.


While I am optimistic with the sneaky Wednesday-Thursday snow setup, I'm not buying KFOR just yet. KFOR has consistently overexaggerated snow chances this winter and I'm not sure they've gotten it right once. Hopefully I'm proven wrong, but I wouldn't bank on KFOR being right LOL.


NWS-Norman has updated their forecast, 30-40% chance of snow across Central Oklahoma, higher towards the SW.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2948 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:52 pm

Cpv17 wrote:We all better hope that pesky SE ridge stays away or it could be game over. Latest CPC forecasts aren’t pretty.


CPC is about as accurate as the novice on this board…. I like the set up I see past next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2949 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:57 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:We all better hope that pesky SE ridge stays away or it could be game over. Latest CPC forecasts aren’t pretty.


CPC is about as accurate as the novice on this board…. I like the set up I see past next week.


What are you seeing? I see a chance of higher heights forming in the southern plains and that’s what the CPC is seeing too, I believe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2950 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:KFOR has a high of 32 with a 80% Chance of snow for OKC for Wednesday.


Just know that the percentage chance of precipitation says nothing about precipitation amounts. Could be an 80% of seeing a brief snow flurry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2951 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:11 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:We all better hope that pesky SE ridge stays away or it could be game over. Latest CPC forecasts aren’t pretty.


CPC is about as accurate as the novice on this board…. I like the set up I see past next week.


What are you seeing? I see a chance of higher heights forming in the southern plains and that’s what the CPC is seeing too, I believe.


The CPC latches on to climo and Nina/Nino with a little GFS factored in.

Given what I see upstream and a February -PNA, I really like the cold to overwhelm what ridge is there. The SE ridge isn’t going to be particularly strong, IF it rears it’s head, and that’s not close to a given.

I see more of the same in February as we did in January except precip chances may be a bit better come 2nd week of Feb and onward.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2952 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:31 pm

Some showers here but it looks pretty good for areas of SE DFW this evening.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2953 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:35 pm

12z CMC (Very late due to Data Flow problems) has snow trended more for Oklahoma than Texas, (A little unfortunate for DFW)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2954 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:36 pm

Delkus chimes in.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2955 Postby DallasAg » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:46 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Some showers here but it looks pretty good for areas of SE DFW this evening.

A whopping 0.03" in North Dallas. Nearly doubles what I've had MTD. Looks like areas S of I-30 and E of I-45 are the big winners today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2956 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:09 pm

DallasAg wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Some showers here but it looks pretty good for areas of SE DFW this evening.

A whopping 0.03" in North Dallas. Nearly doubles what I've had MTD. Looks like areas S of I-30 and E of I-45 are the big winners today.


I was glad to just hear the gutters dripping running lol

I suspect we'll do pretty good precip wise as we move into Spring but that will come with lots of svr weather.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2957 Postby SouthernMet » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:23 pm

North Tx, especially red river counties and from Fort Worth - Denton line northwestward - shouldn’t write off Wednesday night’s shortwave. If this still has juice as it crosses NTX I wouldn’t be surprised to see some quick minor accumulations for locations that get lucky under that band that sets up. Earlier guidance had it falling apart as it moves east.. ICON, HRRR and RGEM try to pulse it back up as a convective band as it moves into Southern Oklahoma and NTX. NAM isn’t showing anything for DFW fwiw but we shall see how it plays out. These setups can be tricky always room for a surprise.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2958 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:43 am

SouthernMet wrote:North Tx, especially red river counties and from Fort Worth - Denton line northwestward - shouldn’t write off Wednesday night’s shortwave. If this still has juice as it crosses NTX I wouldn’t be surprised to see some quick minor accumulations for locations that get lucky under that band that sets up. Earlier guidance had it falling apart as it moves east.. ICON, HRRR and RGEM try to pulse it back up as a convective band as it moves into Southern Oklahoma and NTX. NAM isn’t showing anything for DFW fwiw but we shall see how it plays out. These setups can be tricky always room for a surprise.


Got my attention :flag:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2959 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:35 am

End of the Euro has a near blizzard in OK/KS and NW TX over a foot in western Oklahoma

:spam: :double:

Image
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#neversummer

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2960 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:10 am

Brent wrote:End of the Euro has a near blizzard in OK/KS and NW TX over a foot in western Oklahoma

:spam: :double:

https://i.ibb.co/2n8Xk1m/sn10-acc-us-c-4.png

Send that south and east a few counties and we are in business!!!
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