Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

Don (from WX Infinity) has pointed out that the moisture Overrunning the Cold Airmass later this week could cause something similar to the December 2017 event in Southern Texas.

[wxman57]

Don (from WX Infinity) has pointed out that the moisture Overrunning the Cold Airmass later this week could cause something similar to the December 2017 event in Southern Texas.

I don't remember Dec. of 2017. Cold rain? Doesn't look like the air will be sub-freezing, unless you believe the NAM, which I don't. Just noticed that the NAM has 6-8" of snow from Corpus Christi to Galveston Thursday. I'm kind of doubting that.

[Iceresistance]

Don (from WX Infinity) has pointed out that the moisture Overrunning the Cold Airmass later this week could cause something similar to the December 2017 event in Southern Texas.

I don't remember Dec. of 2017. Cold rain? Doesn't look like the air will be sub-freezing, unless you believe the NAM, which I don't. Just noticed that the NAM has 6-8" of snow from Corpus Christi to Galveston Thursday. I'm kind of doubting that.

Snow in Central & Southern Texas, also included Houston

Austin NWS
https://www.weather.gov/ewx/wxevent-20171207

December 2017 Regional Climate Summary for Houston NWS mentioned snowfall in their NWS coverage.
https://www.weather.gov/media/hgx/climate/summary/Dec_2017_Regional_Climate_Summary.pdf

(On the Bolded): I do doubt that much snowfall for that area right now, the NAM also noted a lot of sleet for that area (And on TT it includes sleet in the snowfall, but the radar, it's showing a lot of Sleet), but only time will tell if that's the case.

[TropicalTundra]

Question: Does the HRRR show longer ranges every 6 runs? Or does it show every 12 runs? I have been trying to see what the HRRR says about this storm but the only way to see the long range is the 12z run.

[Steve]

Don (from WX Infinity) has pointed out that the moisture Overrunning the Cold Airmass later this week could cause something similar to the December 2017 event in Southern Texas.

I don't remember Dec. of 2017. Cold rain? Doesn't look like the air will be sub-freezing, unless you believe the NAM, which I don't. Just noticed that the NAM has 6-8" of snow from Corpus Christi to Galveston Thursday. I'm kind of doubting that.

Not Texas, but it's also got 12" of snow on the ground in coastal Mississippi by the end of the week. I could believe some sleet or graupel pellets somewhere because you only need a frozen layer of air somewhat near to the ground even if the outdoor temps are much above freezing. But there's literally no way a foot of snow is falling on the MS Gulf Coast and a 6" band is over metro New Orleans which hasn't happened since 1895. I'd give it about 1 in a million chance.

Link to NAM 12z Snowfall Accumulation through 84 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=84

[cheezyWXguy]

Don (from WX Infinity) has pointed out that the moisture Overrunning the Cold Airmass later this week could cause something similar to the December 2017 event in Southern Texas.

I don't remember Dec. of 2017. Cold rain? Doesn't look like the air will be sub-freezing, unless you believe the NAM, which I don't. Just noticed that the NAM has 6-8" of snow from Corpus Christi to Galveston Thursday. I'm kind of doubting that.

Doesn’t that setting incorrectly include qpf that falls as ice, thereby inflating “snow totals”? It’s clearly falling is ice/sleet, so it would really mean about 0.5-1” of mixed precip, no?

Edit: yeah looks like that’s the case. Pivotalweather’s ice depiction shows up to 0.6” of ice and up to 1” of snow. Definitely looks like the ceiling in terms of potential to me

[Iceresistance]

Question: Does the HRRR show longer ranges every 6 runs? Or does it show every 12 runs? I have been trying to see what the HRRR says about this storm but the only way to see the long range is the 12z run.

The long range runs are 0z, 6z, 12z, & 18z. All other runs are up to 18 hours.
College of DuPage has the HRRR up to 2 days old.

[jaguars_22]

Looks like the gfs is slowly coming around??? Now southern Texas 1-3 inch range

[Portastorm]

Model trends this morning are shunting the moisture axis on Thursday even further south in Texas. At this rate it looks like San Antonio and points south might see some frozen stuff.

[Iceresistance]

Model trends this morning are shunting the moisture axis on Thursday even further south in Texas. At this rate it looks like San Antonio and points south might see some frozen stuff.

We may have another chance next week . . .

[Brent]

I guess at least cold isn’t an issue for the foreseeable future—just gotta see if that moisture will ever pan out.

I just hope we don't keep wasting it. It's not gonna last forever. It kind of irritates me to see a high in the 20s and zero precip and it's not even the first time this month

And yes I know February is usually our month but is the pattern still gonna be good then? That's my fear that we revert back

The pattern may revert back but I don't think results will be same. -PNA in Feb is usually a bit different than December. The Nina is fading quickly, there is hardly any cold water left west of 180 (IDL).

EURO does the 5h dance with the GFS.

I guess the one thing about February is hopefully the southeast ridge comes back a bit... That's why we keep missing out because they have all the real moisture. I mean they've definitely had enough fun after this weekend's storm

And yes maybe we get a quick shot at something brief tomorrow but the problem is we can't get past that

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/ ... 0517025794

Something interesting to check out. I'm moving into my new house today, but once i settle in, I'd love to look at data from these years.

Also, this is one of my favorite follows on twitter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Don (from WX Infinity) has pointed out that the moisture Overrunning the Cold Airmass later this week could cause something similar to the December 2017 event in Southern Texas.

I don't remember Dec. of 2017. Cold rain? Doesn't look like the air will be sub-freezing, unless you believe the NAM, which I don't. Just noticed that the NAM has 6-8" of snow from Corpus Christi to Galveston Thursday. I'm kind of doubting that.

Snow in Central & Southern Texas, also included Houston

Austin NWS
https://www.weather.gov/ewx/wxevent-20171207

December 2017 Regional Climate Summary for Houston NWS mentioned snowfall in their NWS coverage.
https://www.weather.gov/media/hgx/climate/summary/Dec_2017_Regional_Climate_Summary.pdf

(On the Bolded): I do doubt that much snowfall for that area right now, the NAM also noted a lot of sleet for that area (And on TT it includes sleet in the snowfall, but the radar, it's showing a lot of Sleet), but only time will tell if that's the case.

We had snow around Dec 8th in houston that year. Snowed for about 8 hours overnight

[Ntxw]

I just hope we don't keep wasting it. It's not gonna last forever. It kind of irritates me to see a high in the 20s and zero precip and it's not even the first time this month

And yes I know February is usually our month but is the pattern still gonna be good then? That's my fear that we revert back

The pattern may revert back but I don't think results will be same. -PNA in Feb is usually a bit different than December. The Nina is fading quickly, there is hardly any cold water left west of 180 (IDL).

EURO does the 5h dance with the GFS.

I guess the one thing about February is hopefully the southeast ridge comes back a bit... That's why we keep missing out because they have all the real moisture. I mean they've definitely had enough fun after this weekend's storm

And yes maybe we get a quick shot at something brief tomorrow but the problem is we can't get past that

I think the moisture issue is related to the -PDO and drought feedback more than anything. We've had some bad luck with trough orientation.

[TropicalTundra]

The cold front that's arrving tomorrow/Thursday is already making it's way through Central South Dakota. Pretty awesome to see 20's in the northern half of the state and 50's in the southern part. By 7-10 pm it should be touching far north Kansas and by 2 am it should be in North Central Oklahoma.

[rwfromkansas]

Moving to get more snow is often a fool's errand. OK and KS have been in a snow drought for many years as well, though KS has had a few small-time events this winter, they are still below normal. Heck, my first winter here was 2014-2015. Multiple snows. I was more frequent on another forum then, which was active. Now, it's dead in the Texas section after years of nothing.

I recall seeing a certain "eastern" forum years ago complaining constantly about NC/VA getting screwed out of snow etc.

The only places I could consider moving to for snow would be far northern plains but east enough...maybe MN....or interior Maine. So beautiful there. But, I hate really cold winters also, so not so sure about that. I would miss severe weather in ME for sure.

I have a FB friend in Corning, NY, and I am always envious of the snow there. They are buried.

[Brent]

Moving to get more snow is often a fool's errand. OK and KS have been in a snow drought for many years as well, though KS has had a few small-time events this winter, they are still below normal. Heck, my first winter here was 2014-2015. Multiple snows. I was more frequent on another forum then, which was active. Now, it's dead in the Texas section after years of nothing.

I recall seeing a certain "eastern" forum years ago complaining constantly about NC/VA getting screwed out of snow etc.

The only places I could consider moving to for snow would be far northern plains but east enough...maybe MN....or interior Maine. So beautiful there. But, I hate really cold winters also, so not so sure about that. I would miss severe weather in ME for sure.

I have a FB friend in Corning, NY, and I am always envious of the snow there. They are buried.

To be fair I didn't move to Oklahoma for more snow. I moved for cheaper cost of living snow was way down the list but since it's winter now...

If I really wanted to move to snow I would have definitely went further north but I also don't want to live in a place where snow is no big deal which is of course the issue further north. Also nonstop cold would get old. I definitely don't hate the warmups we have between fronts

[wxman57]

...snip... I definitely don't hate the warmups we have between fronts

Yeah, me too. I like the warmup between May and the end of September - between fronts. You're maybe turning into a bit of a heat miser?

No one talking about the 300+ hr 12Z GFS run? Come on, you can believe it this time!

[Haris]

Moving to get more snow is often a fool's errand. OK and KS have been in a snow drought for many years as well, though KS has had a few small-time events this winter, they are still below normal. Heck, my first winter here was 2014-2015. Multiple snows. I was more frequent on another forum then, which was active. Now, it's dead in the Texas section after years of nothing.

I recall seeing a certain "eastern" forum years ago complaining constantly about NC/VA getting screwed out of snow etc.

The only places I could consider moving to for snow would be far northern plains but east enough...maybe MN....or interior Maine. So beautiful there. But, I hate really cold winters also, so not so sure about that. I would miss severe weather in ME for sure.

I have a FB friend in Corning, NY, and I am always envious of the snow there. They are buried.

To be fair I didn't move to Oklahoma for more snow. I moved for cheaper cost of living snow was way down the list but since it's winter now...

If I really wanted to move to snow I would have definitely went further north but I also don't want to live in a place where snow is no big deal which is of course the issue further north. Also nonstop cold would get old. I definitely don't hate the warmups we have between fronts

Same. I think the best place for southerners like us who do love snow at times would be a place like Denver, CO Springs or Tennessee etc. Especially in CO, you rarely have snow linger for more than a day due to the intense sun angle year round and the quick warm ups in temps. It can easily get to 60 or 70 in mid winter. But also it averages 50" of snow so you WILL get snow unlike the mid south or mid atlantic

[Brent]

...snip... I definitely don't hate the warmups we have between fronts

Yeah, me too. I like the warmup between May and the end of September - between fronts. You're maybe turning into a bit of a heat miser?

No one talking about the 300+ hr 12Z GFS run? Come on, you can believe it this time!

Nah I'll never be a fan of summer heat. That definitely gets old

If summer had more variety it wouldn't be so bad like some rain or a high in the 70s