Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM & RGEM are showing wintry Mischief for Southern Texas Thursday.

[wxman22]

The NAM FWIW.Seems like the Canadian model is on to something...I'm starting to lean towards an icing event Thursday night for South Central/South East Texas.

[Haris]

Other than the Nam, very little good news today. We cont to await …

[bubba hotep]

Looking farther out, ensembles are split with the GEFS keeping us in this same pattern, but the EPS pulls us back towards the December pattern. The MJO is weak and incoherent, so probably not much help from the Pacific unless it's from some focused Rossby wave activity.

[Iceresistance]

Looking farther out, ensembles are split with the GEFS keeping us in this same pattern, but the EPS pulls us back towards the December pattern. The MJO is weak and incoherent, so probably not much help from the Pacific unless it's from some focused Rossby wave activity.

Yeah, with the MJO now out, it's going to be even harder to get very cold weather.

[bubba hotep]

Looking farther out, ensembles are split with the GEFS keeping us in this same pattern, but the EPS pulls us back towards the December pattern. The MJO is weak and incoherent, so probably not much help from the Pacific unless it's from some focused Rossby wave activity.

Yeah, with the MJO now out, it's going to be even harder to get very cold weather.

Not necessarily harder to get but more that the potential pathway won't be as evident in the more extended range. Also, the strat PV looks to remain stronger than avg (even potentially record strength) so that is a potential cold weather door that is probably closed for this winter. Basically, two months of winter left for N. Texas and Oklahoma, so lets all cross our fingers lol

[Iceresistance]

Looking farther out, ensembles are split with the GEFS keeping us in this same pattern, but the EPS pulls us back towards the December pattern. The MJO is weak and incoherent, so probably not much help from the Pacific unless it's from some focused Rossby wave activity.

Yeah, with the MJO now out, it's going to be even harder to get very cold weather.

Not necessarily harder to get but more that the potential pathway won't be as evident in the more extended range. Also, the strat PV looks to remain stronger than avg (even potentially record strength) so that is a potential cold weather door that is probably closed for this winter. Basically, two months of winter left for N. Texas and Oklahoma, so lets all cross our fingers lol

Unless a SSW causes it to become even more unstable, it's hard to get another major Winter Storm anytime soon. (But in February? Anything is possible)

[Haris]

CMC hints at what orange blood meant. If that secondary low can speed up, still possible for a decent snow maker

[bubba hotep]

[quote="Haris"]CMC hints at what orange blood meant. If that secondary low can speed up, still possible for a decent snow maker[/quote]

The parts are there but the spacing and timing is all jacked up. The northern stream keeps crushing any S. Plains potential and all the southern s/w keep getting sheared out.

[Iceresistance]

CMC hints at what orange blood meant. If that secondary low can speed up, still possible for a decent snow maker

Look at the 12z CMC Temperature, the first thing I said when I saw the lows was 'Oh Jeez!'

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS is seeing moderate chills for Southern Texas, freezing temperatures for Northern Texas, and very cold temperatures for Minnesota and North Dakota.

[wxman57]

CMC hints at what orange blood meant. If that secondary low can speed up, still possible for a decent snow maker

Look at the 12z CMC Temperature, the first thing I said when I saw the lows was 'Oh Jeez!'

Canadian has been terrible with Texas temps with these fronts.

[Iceresistance]

CMC hints at what orange blood meant. If that secondary low can speed up, still possible for a decent snow maker

Look at the 12z CMC Temperature, the first thing I said when I saw the lows was 'Oh Jeez!'

Canadian has been terrible with Texas temps with these fronts.

Yes, the Canadian model has a very cold bias with Cold fronts, I had to point it out since it was in the perfect scenario with the upcoming storm system (And another one)

[Cerlin]

Yeah, with the MJO now out, it's going to be even harder to get very cold weather.

Not necessarily harder to get but more that the potential pathway won't be as evident in the more extended range. Also, the strat PV looks to remain stronger than avg (even potentially record strength) so that is a potential cold weather door that is probably closed for this winter. Basically, two months of winter left for N. Texas and Oklahoma, so lets all cross our fingers lol

Unless a SSW causes it to become even more unstable, it's hard to get another major Winter Storm anytime soon. (But in February? Anything is possible)

Not necessarily, you never need an super unstable PV for a Winter Storm to happen, even if it does help a lot. SSW events are pretty uncommon, and Texas has had plenty of good snow events without the need for one.

[orangeblood]

CMC hints at what orange blood meant. If that secondary low can speed up, still possible for a decent snow maker

Look at the 12z CMC Temperature, the first thing I said when I saw the lows was 'Oh Jeez!'

Canadian has been terrible with Texas temps with these fronts.

Don't believe that's necessarily true...its been performing much better than anything the GFS/Euro is offering. Just look at the CMC vs GFS from 6 days out for this mornings lows, actual was in the 25-30 F across DFW. Houston was 32-33 F

CMC


GFS

[orangeblood]

With 5 day mean temp anomalies and precip like this, hard to imagine not getting decent winter precip out of this Ensemble forecast for a lot of Texas

[wxman57]

Canadian has been about 8 deg too cold and the GFS about as much too warm. Even today's 12Z GFS had Houston at 44F at 12Z when temps were around 32. Euro had 33F for its 12Z Houston temperature, which was correct. Euro has 31F for Saturday's low here while the Canadian has 26 (again). GFS is at 39F. Probably 31-32 here Saturday morning. Highs no more than the low 50s each day. Trapped inside all weekend again. Come on, July!

By the way, normal low/high for Houston today is 43/63. Both start going up steadily by January 25th. So far, Houston's temps are averaging 1.6F above normal for January. Doesn't feel above normal.

[orangeblood]

Canadian has been about 8 deg too cold and the GFS about as much too warm. Even today's 12Z GFS had Houston at 44F at 12Z when temps were around 32. Euro had 33F for its 12Z Houston temperature, which was correct. Euro has 31F for Saturday's low here while the Canadian has 26 (again). GFS is at 39F. Probably 31-32 here Saturday morning. Highs no more than the low 50s each day. Trapped inside all weekend again. Come on, July!

By the way, normal low/high for Houston today is 43/63. Both start going up steadily by January 25th. So far, Houston's temps are averaging 1.6F above normal for January. Doesn't feel above normal.

Highly likely Houston will be below normal for the month, and potentially quite significantly...5 plus deg F below

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian has been about 8 deg too cold and the GFS about as much too warm. Even today's 12Z GFS had Houston at 44F at 12Z when temps were around 32. Euro had 33F for its 12Z Houston temperature, which was correct. Euro has 31F for Saturday's low here while the Canadian has 26 (again). GFS is at 39F. Probably 31-32 here Saturday morning. Highs no more than the low 50s each day. Trapped inside all weekend again. Come on, July!

By the way, normal low/high for Houston today is 43/63. Both start going up steadily by January 25th. So far, Houston's temps are averaging 1.6F above normal for January. Doesn't feel above normal.

Highly likely Houston will be below normal for the month, and potentially quite significantly...5 plus deg F below

Yep I see very little bike riding in his future over the next few weeks.

[Bhow]

18z NAM really likes between Austin and San Antonio for this weeks system.