Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

I know it’s fantasyland but look what’s coming out of western Canada at the end of the 18z GFS

[Brent]

I know it’s fantasyland but look what’s coming out of western Canada at the end of the 18z GFS

This pattern is loaded that's for sure. Total flip from December

We just need better moisture

[Cpv17]

I know it’s fantasyland but look what’s coming out of western Canada at the end of the 18z GFS

This pattern is loaded that's for sure. Total flip from December

We just need better moisture

Bro just look at this.. holy cow:

[3090]

I know it’s fantasyland but look what’s coming out of western Canada at the end of the 18z GFS

This pattern is loaded that's for sure. Total flip from December

We just need better moisture

Bro just look at this.. holy cow:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022011518/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Freezing temps all the way down to the northern gulf coast pretty much. This would be an epic cold event for north America. But particularly for the south.

[wxman57]

FYI in world news massive volcanic eruption near Tonga in the South Pacific. One of the most intense we've seen via Satellite in a long while. This was likely a very quick explosive eruption.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1482437044785889286

https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/1482319932369125381

Apparently, that video of the explosion is not from last evening's eruption, it's from a smaller eruption last month. There are no known videos of the current explosion.

So it is someone trying to fool the world of us? Just wondering how do you know it is NOT, from yesterday?

Because that video that's going around was released on December 20th, showing a rather small eruption compared to yesterday's.

[orangeblood]

18z GEFS ENS suite with more members showing mixed precip for next week across TX. That might be the most active output we've seen so far this winter within a 5 day window.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1642269600/1642744800-9acKhdVZoE0.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1642269600/1642766400-64wsyMPBc7g.png

Ensembles lighting up like that at this range are almost always an indicator than the Operational will flip to a similar solution over the next few runs….The operational looks like an outlier at this point

[Brent]

18z GEFS ENS suite with more members showing mixed precip for next week across TX. That might be the most active output we've seen so far this winter within a 5 day window.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1642269600/1642744800-9acKhdVZoE0.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1642269600/1642766400-64wsyMPBc7g.png

Ensembles lighting up like that at this range are almost always an indicator than the Operational will flip to a similar solution over the next few runs….The operational looks like an outlier at this point

I'm not sure to what extent but I fully expect another west trend lol. It's eerily similar to how this storm started

Hopefully it gets all the way back over here.. I mean we got a few days

[wxman57]

That's some 18Z GFS run! About 20" of snow in SW Louisiana. Only about a foot here in Houston and in the D-FW area. Multiple previous runs for that time show nothing at all. For now, I'm just laughing at it. I'll just make sure that NASA hypersonic jet is fueled...

[Cpv17]

That's some 18Z GFS run! About 20" of snow in SW Louisiana. Only about a foot here in Houston and in the D-FW area. Multiple previous runs for that time show nothing at all. For now, I'm just laughing at it. I'll just make sure that NASA hypersonic jet is fueled...

It’s smoking something really good, apparently. Has to be one of the craziest runs I’ve seen in quite some time. Shades of 1895 there.

[Texas Snow]

I'll just make sure that NASA hypersonic jet is fueled...

[Sambucol]

This pattern is loaded that's for sure. Total flip from December

We just need better moisture

Bro just look at this.. holy cow:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022011518/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Freezing temps all the way down to the northern gulf coast pretty much. This would be an epic cold event for north America. But particularly for the south.

How would this compare to our Texas February event last year in temperatures?

[Quixotic]

Wonder how ercot would handle 24” of snow?

[Cpv17]

Bro just look at this.. holy cow:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022011518/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Freezing temps all the way down to the northern gulf coast pretty much. This would be an epic cold event for north America. But particularly for the south.

How would this compare to our Texas February event last year in temperatures?

No clue but it has a 1062mb high dropping down out of western Canada so I would imagine it would be quite cold. All in fantasyland though so extremely unlikely to happen. I will say the ensembles are looking good though. Well that is if you like cold.

[Haris]

Major Snow storm on the ICON if it were 3F colder.

Great great trends on the 500mb

[TropicalTundra]

Major Snow storm on the ICON if it were 3F colder.

Great great trends on the 500mb

I think some of that may be ice or sleet but ICON doesn't display that sadly. We'll probably have to wait until the next 0z ICON run to see if it trends colder with frozen precip.

[HockeyTx82]

What time frame are we looking at for the next chance?

[Brent]

What time frame are we looking at for the next chance?

First window is Thursday into next weekend for now its favored east probably but things can change

[Texas Snow]

What time frame are we looking at for the next chance?

The icon they mentioned above is next Saturday with very cold rain. 0Z GFS just came in with sleet snow for central Texas into Oklahoma for Saturday as well. Let’s hope we can get some consistency going but at least we have stuff to watch now.

[TropicalTundra]

What time frame are we looking at for the next chance?

The icon they mentioned above is next Saturday with very cold rain. 0Z GFS just came in with sleet snow for central Texas into Oklahoma for Saturday as well. Let’s hope we can get some consistency going but at least we have stuff to watch now.

GFS has 33 degrees and rain for me. CLASSIC.

[3090]

That's some 18Z GFS run! About 20" of snow in SW Louisiana. Only about a foot here in Houston and in the D-FW area. Multiple previous runs for that time show nothing at all. For now, I'm just laughing at it. I'll just make sure that NASA hypersonic jet is fueled...

Well you did ask the question if the GFS king was going to swing over to the Canadian and EURO.