Four Corners/ Front Range Winter Thread

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3307
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Four Corners/ Front Range '21-'22 Winter Thread

#21 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:04 pm

Good time to fire this thread up again! Looks like we will have a stormy few days next week, beginning on Monday. Great storm for the ski resorts.

Still watching out for the mother load of cold that many of us expect the second half of December. If there is blocking over the top across Canada, these types of storms will be common over the next few weeks.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2968
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX

Re: Four Corners/ Front Range '21-'22 Winter Thread

#22 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Dec 11, 2022 8:48 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Good time to fire this thread up again! Looks like we will have a stormy few days next week, beginning on Monday. Great storm for the ski resorts.

Still watching out for the mother load of cold that many of us expect the second half of December. If there is blocking over the top across Canada, these types of storms will be common over the next few weeks.

This should be a good winter for the SW. A very active and cold storm track from Cali into the SW at least for the next few weeks.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3307
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Four Corners/ Front Range '21-'22 Winter Thread

#23 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:56 am

Little Denver surprise. Forecasting between 2-11" this evening. It's so difficult to forecast here already, but it appears models are struggling with the transition to snow.

Based on my time here, it will snow earlier than they expect. Wet bulb temps are normally around 32 as these types of storms come in. Looking like near an inch of precip, translates to about 10" or so. Let's see how it turns out.

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3307
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Four Corners/ Front Range '21-'22 Winter Thread

#24 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:38 pm

Interesting write up tonight for the Tues/Wednesday storm.



LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2023

...WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON NORTHEAST COLORADO...

The storm system and upper low will deepen and strengthen further
Tuesday night as it moves across far southeast Colorado. The storm
is then reasonably agreed upon to track into Central Kansas by
late Wednesday. This track is favorable for significant snow
accumulations and associated travel impacts across all of the
northeast plains Tuesday night and much of Wednesday.

While a couple storms this winter have produced lighter snows with
this similar track, this one is forecast to be more concentric
and thus support more of a deeper upslope component into the Front
Range. There is also a more organized TROWAL evident on the cross
sections, and an isentropic look shows significant upglide across
the northeast plains and into the Front Range Tuesday night into
early Wednesday. The main question with this one comes to the
exact deepening of the cyclone and thus the magnitude of the
upslope. At this point, there looks to be a good 6-12 hour period
into the Front Range and I-25 Corridor, and northeast plains.
Combined with the favorable lapse rates, deep moisture profile,
and favorable vertical motion through a deep dendritic growth zone
we could easily be looking at 1" per hour snowfall rates for
several hours. Right now, that would favor the I-25 Corridor from
late Tuesday evening into the early morning hours Wednesday, and
then eastern plains from midnight Tuesday night through at least
noon/early afternoon Wednesday. Given these favorable factors,
we`ve upgraded all the plains and I-25 Corridor to a Winter Storm
Warning for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

This storm looks more like a March storm again (just like the
late December storm) given the high precipitable water values and
temperature profiles. The EC Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) also
support this with values of 0.75-0.95 across all of the
plains, indicative of a very rare event from model climatology
perspective. In fact, the latest QPF and Snow EFI is now offering
up a 0.99-1 over the northeast corner which means it`s right at
the absolute highest end of forecast model climatology for a 5
week period centered on this date (i.e. the model has never/maybe
once? forecast such magnitude of QPF/Snow in the late December to
early Feb period). Again, this bolsters the idea that this is
shaping up to be a rare event for this time of year and more of a
spring- like storm than a mid January storm. Good for alleviating
drought at least, but gives an idea of possible significant travel
impacts from just depth of accumulating snow (greater than 50%
chance of >8" over those northeast plains). It should be noted
there is potential for heavier snow for the I-25 Corridor and
Foothills given those parameters as well - IF the system winds up
a bit quicker and results in a stronger/more persistent upslope.

While the ensembles are in generally good agreement and have
increased precipitation totals, it should still be noted there are
still a couple holdout model runs that are more disorganized
(like the most recent NAM - which isn`t generally trusted in these
types of situations). It should also be noted there is still only
moderate confidence in snowfall totals, as the storm is still in
the Sierras of California and another shortwave is yet to be
infused into the upper trough. Stay tuned for updates and possible
forecast/impact revisions in either direction.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3307
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Four Corners/ Front Range Winter Thread

#25 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 30, 2024 10:39 am

https://x.com/BianchiWeather/status/175 ... 53160?s=20

Potential for a big event this weekend. Models usually increase precip and snow total as the event draws closer.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 51 guests