Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Itryatgolf]

I will say when and if the ridge gets over Alaska, that's when it should get cold, otherwise it's a waiting game. Hopefully mid December or later

[Cpv17]

I will say when and if the ridge gets over Alaska, that's when it should get cold, otherwise it's a waiting game. Hopefully mid December or later

This is pretty much how I feel too. The EPS gives us some hope for this.

Waiting for the 12z EPS to finish its run before I look at it.

[Itryatgolf]

I will say when and if the ridge gets over Alaska, that's when it should get cold, otherwise it's a waiting game. Hopefully mid December or later

This is pretty much how I feel too. The EPS gives us some hope for this.

Waiting for the 12z EPS to finish its run before I look at it.

I know it was trying increase heights over Alaska 12eps towards end of the run

[Itryatgolf]

From what I heard on American weather, the pacific is in such bad bad shape and would take a big -nao to overcome the pacific, but hopefully that happens sometime this month.

[harp]

That SE ridge is just STUBBORN!

[Cpv17]

Gross..even the latest EPS doesn’t look very good.

[snowballzzz]

A balmy 76° here in Weatherford today. Ready for some actual winter but doesn’t look too promising within the foreseeable future.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is an improvement compared to 12z

[Ntxw]

The mood here reminds me of last year. Not in the sense of the December warmth, but when the pattern shifted sometime in mid-late December that exemplified in Jan and Feb, it just took time after laying down the cards. It won't take that long here but the waiting game.

Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.

[Ntxw]

That SE ridge is just STUBBORN!

Those in the southeast, closest to the gulf, is doomed. La Nina SE ridge dominance all winter. . All seriousness you folks along the gulf coast need +PNA. RNA won't work.

[Cpv17]

The mood here reminds me of last year. Not in the sense of the December warmth, but when the pattern shifted sometime in mid-late December that exemplified in Jan and Feb, it just took time after laying down the cards. It won't take that long here but the waiting game.

Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.

When do you think we’ll start seeing it on the operationals and ensembles? Honestly I thought we would already start seeing something by now.

[Iceresistance]

That SE ridge is just STUBBORN!

Those in the southeast, closest to the gulf, is doomed. La Nina SE ridge dominance all winter. . All seriousness you folks along the gulf coast need +PNA. RNA won't work.

If the SE Ridge would be like this all spring and with storm systems coming in, I would be absolutely sweating bullets because I would have outbreak after outbreak of Supercells!

[Ntxw]

The mood here reminds me of last year. Not in the sense of the December warmth, but when the pattern shifted sometime in mid-late December that exemplified in Jan and Feb, it just took time after laying down the cards. It won't take that long here but the waiting game.

Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.

When do you think we’ll start seeing it on the operationals and ensembles? Honestly I thought we would already start seeing something by now.

Depends on who's looking for what region. Oklahoma and NTX is probably eyeing the days before mid month. Need that NAO to deliver the storms. We don't need exceptional cold for snow. For the Arctic air, I'm in agreement with guys need to see a good -EPO which has been a pattern the past few months of being in the middle to third of the month (mid to late Oct/Nov..Dec?) That kind of cold may not come until ~15th or later. I think the CFS weeklies is a good blend of sensible weather.

[Brent]

The mood here reminds me of last year. Not in the sense of the December warmth, but when the pattern shifted sometime in mid-late December that exemplified in Jan and Feb, it just took time after laying down the cards. It won't take that long here but the waiting game.

Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.

When do you think we’ll start seeing it on the operationals and ensembles? Honestly I thought we would already start seeing something by now.

Depends on who's looking for what region. Oklahoma and NTX is probably eyeing the days before mid month. Need that NAO to deliver the storms. We don't need exceptional cold for snow. For the Arctic air, I'm in agreement with guys need to see a good -EPO which has been a pattern the past few months of being in the middle to third of the month (mid to late Oct/Nov..Dec?) That kind of cold may not come until ~15th or later. I think the CFS weeklies is a good blend of sensible weather.

https://i.imgur.com/acG4cKw.png

https://i.imgur.com/8J1g0xT.png

Yeah I'm still watching mid month here. GFS keeps trying to show a winter storm on and off and even the TV met mentioned earlier if the models are right precip type would be an issue

I would guess it would trickle down from there but again we don't want super extreme cold or it'll just be dry as a bone and nobody wants that

[harp]

GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..

From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.

But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.

[txwxwatcher]

GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..

From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.

But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.

Thank you for being a voice of reason. Some people I will just never understand.

[Cpv17]

GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..

From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.

But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.

Thank you for being a voice of reason. Some people I will just never understand.

I mean your average person will live or die by the models. It’s fairly common. There’s even some mets (lazier ones) that have been known to do that. One model run could show Houston getting down to 15°F 300 hours out and an hour later you’ll see it being posted/talked about all over the internet. Yeah I get annoyed by that but at the same time I can understand where they’re coming from so I’m not going to talk down to them about it. Instead, educate them. Let them know models can’t be trusted that far out. You’d be surprised by how many people would actually believe one model run 300 hours out.

[HockeyTx82]

GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..

From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.

But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.

Thank you for being a voice of reason. Some people I will just never understand.

I don't really look at long range model runs aside from what snippets are posted here. While I enjoy a good conversation on weather I would drive myself nuts analyzing every run unless it's my job and I get paid to do it.

[Iceresistance]

Winter 2022-2023 could be like the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Delayed, but not Denied.